Best Investments For 2012|Best Stocks to Buy Right Now

4 Best Mutual Funds at Vanguard Now

2012-02-17T00:17:00.000-08:00

In the mutual fund industry, Vanguard founder Jack Bogle is a legend. After college, he got a job at Wellington Management Company and quickly rose up the ranks, becoming the company’s chairman. However, he was eventually fired because of a bad merger. But this turned out to be fortuitous since he started the mutual fund giant Vanguard in 1974.
His laser-like focus at Vanguard was on the interests on investors. To this end, he developed low-cost mutual funds that focused on indexing. Hey, why should investors spend high amounts on fees when many portfolio managers underperform the market?
Now, thanks to this legacy, Vanguard is a mutual fund investing powerhouse. There are $1.4 trillion in assets, with 160 U.S. funds and 50 international funds. And while many are strong, there are some that are standouts above the rest. Let’s take a look:

Vanguard International Growth (VWIGX)

Started in the early 1980s, the Vanguard International Growth Fund (MUTF: VWIGX) now has $18.8 billion in assets. The portfolio is diversified across the world, with 11.58% in the Americas, 53.81% in Europe and 34.61% in Asia. There is also 21.11% in emerging markets.
The Vanguard fund is composed of a variety of best-of-breed international money managers, from firms like Schroder Investment Management, Baillie Gifford and M&G Investment Management. The general approach is to focus on high quality companies with strong growth prospects.
As should be no surprise, the expense ratio is only 0.49% and the turnover is 44%. Top holdings now include Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU), Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) and SAP AG (NYSE: SAP).

Vanguard Small Cap Growth Index (VSGIX)

The MSCI U.S. Small Cap 1750 Index tracks the performance of a diverse set of small capitalization stocks in the US. It is widely followed and a good barometer of the category.
If you want to invest based on this index, then a good mutual fund choice is the Vanguard Small Cap Growth Index Fund (MUTF: VSGIX), which has $8.8 billion in assets. True, there has been volatility — which is to be expected. Although, the index has a good amount of mid-cap stocks, which helps with the swings.
For the past three years, the average annual return was 10.33%. Top holdings include JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ: JDSU), Informatica (NASDAQ: INFA) and Brigham Exploration Company (NASDAQ: BEXP).

Best Energy Stocks Pick For 2012

2012-02-16T07:17:00.000-08:00

President Obama made a speech where he announced a goal of cutting oil imports by a third over the next decade. He included a pledge to have federal agencies buy only alt-fuel vehicles by 2015 and a promise to expand U.S. oil exploration and production.
Transitioning half the cars and trucks in the U.S. to natural gas transportation over the next 5 to 10 years could reduce foreign oil imports by 5 million barrels every day.
So natural gas is an obvious play. Renewable/alternative fuels are other good choices.
Here are my four best picks that could make investors a bundle from the President’s new policy:
Best Energy Stocks Pick For 2012#1—
Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE)
The company owns and/or supplies more than 200 natural gas fueling stations across the U.S. and Canada. It serves over 320 fleet customers operating over 20,000 natural gas vehicles. The customers can use Clean Energy’s fuel stations to tank up their vehicles with compressed natural gas (CNG) or liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Clean Energy Fuels also provides natural gas vehicle systems and conversions for taxis, limousines, vans, pick-up trucks, and shuttle buses through its BAF subsidiary in Texas. Clean Energy helps customers buy and finance natural gas vehicles and obtain government incentives.
The company buys CNG from local utilities and produces LNG at its two plants (in California and Texas) with a combined capacity of 260,000 gallons per day.
Clean Energy owns and operates an LNG liquefaction plant near Houston, Texas, which it calls the Pickens Plant, capable of producing up to 35 million gallons of LNG per year.
And investors who buy CLNE won’t be alone …
Founder and billionaire oilman T. Boone Pickens owns a sizeable chunk of Clean Energy.
Best Energy Stocks Pick For 2012 #2—
Westport Innovations (WPRT)
This company makes natural gas engines for forklifts, oilfield services engines, trucks and buses and automobiles. Its 50-50 joint venture Cummins Westport project builds natural gas vehicle engines for trucks and buses that could refill at the clean energy stations built by Clean Energy.
It made revenues of $154 million in the last year and isn’t close to profitability yet. But a concerted push toward natural-gas powered vehicles could change that.
WPRT is at the top of its 52-week range. So I’d wait for a pullback.
Best Energy Stocks Pick For 2012 #3—
Talisman Energy (TLM)
Talisman had 1.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent in reserves last year. It has material positions in three world-class, liquids-heavy shale plays in North America: The Marcellus shale (Pennsylvania), Montney shale (British Columbia) and Utica shale (Quebec). It is also expanding its Eagle Ford shale properties, in a 50-50 joint venture with Statoil.
The company also signed two $1.05 billion deals with Sasol of South Africa. This partnership is sketching out plans for a new multibillion-dollar facility near Edmonton that could process as much as a billion cubic feet of natural gas a day into 96,000 barrels of refined products through the Fischer-Tropsch process.
Fischer-Tropsch works by using heat and chemical catalysts to break down a substance like natural gas into its molecular basics and then rebuild those molecules into something else — such as diesel.
Why do that?
A barrel of oil contains roughly six times the energy content of a thousand cubic feet of gas. Since 6 thousand cubic feet of gas is worth about $24 (U.S.), and one barrel of oil is worth about $100, there is a tremendous profit margin if you can convert one to the other cost-effectively.
Best Energy Stocks Pick For 2012 #4—
PowerShares Wilderhill
Clean Energy Fund (PBW)
This is one of the largest alternative energy ETFs with over $500 million in assets. Large holdings include GT Solar, Yingli Green Energy, SunPower Corp., Trina Solar and more.

Best Cheap Stocks to Buy For 2012

2012-02-14T02:37:00.000-08:00

This has been quite a winter.
From Arab states falling to Twitter revolutions, to U.S. states finally owning up to their own fiscal shortfalls, to natural disasters in New Zealand, Australia and now Japan, stock markets around the world have been swinging up and down in manic runs from hope to despair.
And one other thing is true: The markets hate uncertainty. That means, in our current circumstances, smart investors are looking for real assets — tangible commodities and resources that the world has to have to survive or hedge against uncertainty. In 2010, I picked silver miner Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW) as my top stock for the year. It doesn’t get much more tangible than silver, and with the metal’s run higher, the stock was up more than 150%.
This year, I’ve found a couple more standouts in the real asset sector.
This duo is a real asset play on the same megatrend that’s been building since the dawn of man: The world’s need for food…

Best Cheap Stocks For 2012: Agricultural demand is growing

China, for instance, has a lot of mouths to feed — 1.3 billion at last count, or 15-20% of the world’s population. Unfortunately, it only has 7% of the planet’s arable land (and most of that is relatively unproductive).
On a per-capita basis, China has just a fraction of the available farmland as most other countries. And the gap is getting wider. Population is growing by around 10 million per year, while millions of acres of prime agricultural land are lost to soil erosion, urban construction, and heavy metals pollution.
This dire situation presents ongoing challenges for farmers — but unique opportunities for companies whose products can boost crop yields.
That’s where Yongye (Nasdaq: YONG) comes in. The firm is an emerging leader in the “green” agriculture movement, specializing in organic crop nutrients and animal feed supplements. The company has several advantages over the competition.
First, its chief marketing officer literally wrote the book on reaching out to rural farmers.
Second, its Shengmingsu brand’s liquid nutrient has proven to increase output by 22% and reduce harvest time by up to two weeks.
Finally, Yongye has been negotiating with independently owned supply stores to prominently display (and push) the Shengmingsu brand. The company has a year-end goal of 30,000 stores selling its product.
Ordinarily, you’d have to pay a rich premium for all this — but Yongye is trading at just five times forward earnings, a sharp discount to its expected 40%-plus growth rate. This stock could double in the next 12 months.

Best Cheap Stocks For 2012: Prices for agricultural staples are rising

The bureaucrats can say all they want about benign inflation. Apparently, they haven’t been to a grocery store lately.
And prices are still rising at the wholesale level, which means more retail markups in the weeks and months ahead. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, producers fetched higher prices for corn, soybeans, eggs, milk and apples last month.
Some of the blame (or credit, depending on your perspective) belongs to the Fed‘s dollar debasement policies. By definition, a depreciating dollar boosts the prices of dollar-denominated agricultural commodities.
But old-fashioned supply/demand imbalances are also playing a major role. A bad Russian winter wheat harvest and subsequent export ban sent prices skyrocketing. Here in the United States, torrential rains in the Corn Belt have left supplies at the lowest levels in 15 years.
Growing demand and shrinking supplies intersect at rising prices. Corn futures have spiked more than 70% since June. Wheat prices have spiked 35% so far this year. Soybeans and sugar are the same story.
And, because beef, pork and dairy producers have to buy mountains of feed for their livestock, rising grain prices will likely spill into the meat aisle as well (there’s typically a six-month lag).
With all this in mind, I strongly recommend readers fight back against the relentless price hikes by converting a few dollars into bacon and cereal — or at least pork bellies and corn.
========================== Part 2 ==========================
Large pharmaceutical companies are facing a crisis. The industry spent a record $65 billion on research and development (R&D) in 2009, but approval rates for new drugs have fallen 44% during the past decade and continue to drop. Also in 2009, drugs launched in the previous five years accounted for only 7% of all sales, meaning that older drugs closer to patent expiration make up the vast majority of sales. The failure rate of drugs in the final stages of development has doubled in recent years.

Best Cheap Stocks For 2012: PFE,GSK

These facts are sobering proof that productivity levels for bringing successful drugs to market have declined severely in recent years. It is leading to soul searching in the industry and large cutbacks in R&D expenditure. Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), one of the largest of the Big Pharma firms, is cutting R&D from 2010 levels of $9.4 billion to between $6.5 billion and $7 billion by 2012. European drug giant GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) will cut spending by up to $4 billion and plans to radically change how it tries to bring new drugs to market. One industry source found it extremely troubling that the market sees R&D as destroying shareholder value.
Part of Glaxo’s shifting approach will be to outsource the initial stages of drug development. These earlier stages are the riskiest, as failure rates are high and are also costly, given the large number of compounds that must be tested. Finding the needle in a haystack is an understatement when it comes to bringing successful drugs to market. Other companies are following suit.The general belief is that Big Pharma will eventually outsource most of its drug development work to outsiders, be they university laboratories, smaller development-stage pharmaceutical and biotech startups, or companies known as contract research organizations (CROs).
Below is a list of the leading CROs…

Covance (NYSE: CVD) is the largest CRO in terms of sales and market capitalization, but not by a wide margin compared to Pharmaceutical Product Development Inc. (Nasdaq: PPDI). Charles River Labs (NYSE: CRL) and Parexel (Nasdaq: PRXL) are similar in terms of sales, while Icon plc (Nasdaq: ICLR), out of Ireland, is the smallest.
Here is an overview of the two that look most compelling to me from an investment standpoint.

Best Cheap Stocks For 2012: Icon plc (Nasdaq: ICLR)

Hands down, Icon has been the fastest growing of the CROs. In the past three, five, and 10-year periods, sales growth has averaged more than 20% annually, as has profit growth. 55% of its business stems from long-term contracts that are fixed in price, which provides a fair level of revenue stability. The company also counts the top 20 pharmaceutical companies in the world as clients and boasts more than 650 clients total.
Icon is one of the most globally diversified CROs and is also impressively profitable. The company posted operating margins of 11.2% and returns on invested capital (ROIC) in the mid-teens (see table above) in its latest fiscal year. The stock looks a bit expensive looking at the forward P/E and trailing free cash flow, but the company is using this year to invest in its business and expects profits to take a short-term dip, after which growth has a solid chance of returning to historical levels and generating impressive returns for investors.
Best Cheap Stocks For 2012: Pharmaceutical Product Development Inc. (Nasdaq: PPDI)
Pharmaceutical Product Development Inc., or PPDI for short, has been another consistent grower over time that is impressively profitable. The company has been around for more than 25 years, which makes it one of the oldest CRO firms, allowing it time to extend its services to 43 countries. It has strong capabilities in the earliest stages of drug development, such as Phase I clinical trials.

Best Cheap Stocks For 2012: Merck (NYSE: MRK)

PPDI trades for one of the lowest free cash flow multiples and also boasts double-digit returns on invested capital. The company has a reputation for low client turnover, and counts Merck (NYSE: MRK) as a key strategic client. It is also the only CRO to pay a dividend, which demonstrates its confidence in generating stable and consistent profits. Its current dividend yield is 2.1% and should appeal to income-oriented investors.

Gold and Silver Surge in First Trading Session of 2012

2012-02-14T02:33:00.000-08:00

The new year started off with a bang in the financial markets.? Although many investors were cheerful of the big rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, precious metals out-shined the competition.

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar declined as the euro currency and equities edged higher. Gold prices climbed $33 to settle back above $1,600 per ounce.? It was the biggest jump for gold in 10 weeks.? Meanwhile, silver prices surged $1.66 to close at $29.57 per ounce.? During the trading highs on Tuesday, silver surged the most in over three years.? Fear trade is back because of Iran, Adam Klopfenstein, a market strategist at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. Also, we are seeing buying across commodities because of the weaker dollar.

Investor Insight: How Did Gold and Silver Perform in 2011?

Tensions continue to build between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, which is considered the world s most important oil choke-point.? It is estimated that 17 million barrels of oil pass through the strait on a daily basis.? On Tuesday, Iran’s army chief warned the U.S. Navy not to return an aircraft carrier back to the Persian Gulf after it was removed due to Iran’s naval exercises in the area.

In addition to uncertainty in Iran, gold continued to edge higher in late Tuesday trading after the most recent Federal Reserve announcement.? The central bank announced it will begin to publish policymakers projections for its benchmark interest rate on overnight loans, and when officials expect the first rise to occur.? Such projections will be published for the first time when the Fed releases its quarterly economic forecasts following its January 24-25 meeting.? Accommodating monetary policies throughout the developed world cause a renewed migration to hard assets by individual investors and sovereign-wealth funds, Byron Wien of Blackstone explained.

Minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee meet! ing show that a number of Fed officials believed economic conditions could well warrant a further easing of monetary policy, though a few others believed further stimulus would be a bad idea, and that an enhanced communications framework could make any policy shift more effective.? As we have warned our Premium Newsletter subscribers several times, interest rates are likely to remain near zero percent beyond mid-2013, which is very bullish for gold.? The latest Fed announcement will give the central bank another channel of communicating additional easing.? Although the Fed is seeking to provide more clarity in the markets, many investors have already realized that the Fed will be unable to raise interest rates due to massive debt levels.

If you would like to receive more professional analysis on equity miners and other precious metal investments,?we invite you to try our premium service free for 14 days.

Private Equity Firms Shovel Millions to Congress: MapLight Analysis

2012-02-13T18:33:00.000-08:00

Political Action Committees and individuals connected to private equity and investment firms have given more than $17 million to lawmakers that have been serving since the 109th Congress adjourned in 2006, a report released last week by the nonpartisan political research firm MapLight shows.

From Jan. 1, 2007, to June 30, 2011, Democrats have taken in $10,871,919, while their Republican counterparts received $6,553,793, the report says. Of the Democrats’ total, President Barack Obama accounts for $1,921,490 while his 2008 Republican opponent for the White House, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has accepted $1,246,575.

Mitt Romney, the current GOP presidential candidate front-runner, has been criticized by his rivals for his career in private business. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman, who left the race on Monday, laid into Romney on Jan. 9 for his years at Bain Capital, the private-equity firm he ran until the mid-1990s. Both Perry and Gingrich accused Romney of having “looted” companies and firing workers for his own gain.

The accompanying chart reflects analysis conducted by MapLight, which shows contributions from private equity and investment firms to members of Congress. Contribution industry classification provided by OpenSecrets.

7 Marvelous Media Stocks to Watch in 2012

2012-02-13T08:57:00.000-08:00

There’s no question the time is right to buy media stocks. Despite last year’s volatility and summer stock slam, media stocks have risen quite considerably. A lot of factors play into this, but one thing that is without a doubt is the race for the White House will prove to be a huge cash cow for media companies. With an estimated $8 billion worth of political ads to be played throughout the country, you can see why.
Now it’s time to choose which media stocks are the best for you. I watch more than 5,000 publicly traded companies with my Portfolio Grader tool, ranking companies by a number of fundamental and quantitative measures. And this week, I’ve got seven media companies making positive headway over the past 12 months.
Here they are, in alphabetical order. Each one of these stocks gets an “A” or “B” according to my research.
7 Marvelous Media Stocks to Watch in 2012- CBS (NYSE:CBS) is a mass-media company, known best for its television stations. In the past year, CBS stock has jumped 47%. CBS stock gets an “A” for operating margin growth, a “B” for its ability to exceed the consensus earnings estimates on Wall Street, a “B” for the magnitude in which earnings projections have increased over the past month, a “B” for cash flow and a “B” for return on equity in my Portfolio Grader tool. For more information, view my complete analysis of CBS stock.
Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) is a provider of video, high-speed Internet and phone services to residences and businesses. CMCSA is up 16% in the past year, compared to a gain of almost 7% for the Dow Jones in the same time. CMCSA stock gets an “A” for sales growth, a “B” for earnings momentum and a “B” for cash flow in my Portfolio Grader tool. For more information, view my complete analysis of CMCSA stock.
7 Marvelous Media Stocks to Watch in 2012-Discovery Communications (NASDAQ:DISCA) is a nonfiction media and entertainment company that provides programming across the world. In the last 12 months, DISCA has climbed nearly 11%. DISCA stock gets a “B” for sales growth, an “A” for operating margin growth, a “B” for earnings growth, a “B” for earnings momentum, a “B” for its ability to exceed the consensus earnings estimates on Wall Street, a “B” for the magnitude in which earnings projections have increased over the past month, an “A” for cash flow and a “B” for return on equity in my Portfolio Grader tool. For more information, view my complete analysis of DISCA stock.
DISH Network (NASDAQ:DISH) is a satellite television provider with more than 14 million subscribers. In the past year, DISH stock is up more than 32%, compared to smaller gains by the broader markets. DISH stock gets an “A” for operating margin growth, a “B” for earnings growth, an “A” for cash flow and an “A” for return on equity in my Portfolio Grader tool. For more information, view my complete analysis of DISH stock.
7 Marvelous Media Stocks to Watch in 2012-News Corp. (NASDAQ:NWS) is a diversified global media company, known best for its controversial owner, Robert Murdoch, as well as for many popular prime time shows such as “American Idol” and “Family Guy”. NWS is up 16% in the past year, despite the controversy surrounding Murdoch. NWS stock gets a “B” for its ability to exceed the consensus earnings estimates on Wall Street, a “B” for the magnitude in which earnings projections have increased over the past month and a “B” for return on equity in my Portfolio Grader tool. For more information, view my complete analysis of NWS stock.
Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) is a satellite radio provider that offers music, sports, news, talk, entertainment, traffic and weather channels. In the past year, SIRI stock has posted a significant gain of 28%. SIRI stock gets an “A” for operating margin growth, a “B” for earnings growth, an “A” for earnings momentum, an “A” for its ability to exceed the consensus earnings estimates on Wall Street, an “A” for the magnitude in which earnings projections have increased over the past month, a “B” for cash flow and an “A” for return on equity in my Portfolio Grader tool. For more information, view my complete analysis of SIRI stock.
7 Marvelous Media Stocks to Watch in 2012-Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) is a cable operator that has customers in several markets across the U.S. TWC is up about 10% since last February. TWC stock gets a “B” for operating margin growth, a “B” for earnings momentum, an “A” for its ability to exceed the consensus earnings estimates on Wall Street, a “B” for the magnitude in which earnings projections have increased over the past month, a “B” for cash flow and an “A” for return on equity in my Portfolio Grader tool. For more information, view my complete analysis of TWC stock.

Cedar Fair, L.P made New 52 Week High Price - NYSE:FUN

2012-02-13T04:21:00.000-08:00

Cedar Fair, L.P (NYSE:FUN) achieved its new price of $22.78 where it was opened at $22.20 UP 0.12 points or +0.54% by closing at $22.21. FUN transacted shares during the day were over 589,568 shares however it has an average volume of 131,160 shares.
FUN has a market capitalization $1.23 billion and an enterprise value at $2.73 billion. Trailing twelve months price to sales ratio of the stock was 1.21 while price to book ratio in most recent quarter was 6.21. In profitability ratios, net profit margin in past twelve months appeared at 0.94% whereas operating profit margin for the same period at 23.10%.
The company made a return on asset of 6.71% in past twelve months and return on equity of 4.83% for similar period. In the period of trailing 12 months it generated revenue amounted to $1.01 billion gaining $18.31 revenue per share. Its year over year, quarterly growth of revenue was 5.00% holding 101.60% quarterly earnings growth.
According to preceding quarter balance sheet results, the company had $96.31 million cash in hand making cash per share at 1.74. The total of $1.59 billion debt was there putting a total debt to equity ratio 805.85. Moreover its current ratio according to same quarter results was 0.77 and book value per share was 3.58.
Looking at the trading information, the stock price history displayed that its S&P500 52 Week Change illustrated -0.86% where the stock current price exhibited up beat from its 50 day moving average price $20.22 and remained above from its 200 Day Moving Average price $19.76.
FUN holds 55.34 million outstanding shares with 43.74 million floating shares where insider possessed 21.66% and institutions kept 34.00%.

Why Tech Stocks Look Better—Even for the Risk Averse

2012-02-12T05:16:00.000-08:00

The technology sector is known for two things: growth potential and risk.

Apple's trouncing of Wall Street earnings forecasts this past week suggests growth is still abundant. Yet Big Tech is looking less risky than it has in the past.

Here are four reasons conservative investors should consider adding exposure to tech stocks.

An Apple store in New York: Apple holds more than $97 billion in cash and securities.

Valuation. Tech stocks have had more than a decade to work off the bloated share prices from the dot-com stock bubble of the 1990s, says Cliff Hoover, chief investment officer of Dreman Value Management in Jersey City, N.J., which manages $5 billion. Many have become a good home for safety-oriented investors, he says.

The information-technology sector of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index recently traded at 13 times estimated 2011 earnings, on par with the broad index, according to S&P data. The consumer staples and utilities sectors, typically considered safe and stodgy, fetch 14 times earnings. And Wall Street expects the tech sector to increase its earnings by almost 14% in 2012, versus 8% for consumer staples and 1% for utilities.

! Volatility. Over the past five years, large pockets of the tech sector, including hardware makers, systems software firms and consulting shops, have been no more volatile in terms of share-price changes than the broad S&P 500 index, according to S&P data.

Financial strength. The tech sector of the S&P 500 sits on $380 billion in cash and equivalents, more than any other sector and equal to 15% of its market value, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P. That doesn't include holdings in long-term securities. Apple holds a $67 billion portfolio that is "very liquid," Mr. Silverblatt says.

The two largest companies in the sector, Apple and Microsoft, have forward price/earnings ratios in single digits after deducting their cash and investments from their stock-market values. Microsoft and Intel now have fatter "dividend yields," or the percentage of share price paid out as dividends, than the 500 index average.

Mr. Hoover, who considers himself a "deep value" stock picker, likes Microsoft, Intel, Cisco Systems and Applied Materials. "They're big free-cash-flow generators and pretty good dividend payers," he says. Microsoft pays 2.7%, Cisco 1.2%, Intel 3.1% and Applied Materials 2.6%, versus 2% for the broad S&P 500.

Low expectations. With 37% of S&P 500 companies having announced December-quarter earnings results, 68% of the technology companies that have reported have beaten analysts' estimates, versus 59% for the index and 40% for consumer-staples companies, according to a Friday report from Thomson Reuters. (Only three utilities have reported, with one beating estimates.)

Tech outfits are doing well in part because companies that delayed technology purchases during the 2008 financial crisis are starting to spend, says David B. Armstrong, co-founder of Monument Wealth Management in Alexandria, Va., which oversees $200 million.

"Techno! logy has become more of a necessity, and companies can only delay investments for so long," he says. "That helps make the sector more stable."

When hunting for tech stocks, investors should consider not only traditional factors like valuation and income growth, but also the "network effect," says Kishore Rao, a research principal with Sustainable Growth Advisers in Stamford, Conn., which manages $3 billion in pension funds and other assets. The term refers to goods and services becoming more valuable as more people use them. For example, securities exchanges benefit from the network effect because as they attract more traders they become better able to handle additional trading volume.

Mr. Rao cites eBay's marketplace, Google's search advertising and Apple's community of mobile-application developers as examples of the network effect. "There's a high degree of predictability for these companies," he says. His firm, which tends to hold 25 to 30 stocks at a time, invests in all three companies.

Another factor to consider beyond financial results is "switching costs," says Grady Burkett, an analyst at Morningstar. The best companies are ones whose customers would find it a burden to switch to competitors, he says.

That typically means companies with plenty of large business customers, such as Cisco and Oracle, Mr. Burkett says. He calls Apple a rare example of a consumer-focused business with high switching costs because customers are attached to its music, photo and other applications. "They'll find it harder to give up their iPhones than they did their Motorola flip phones years ago," he says.

Of course, the technology sector remains exposed to sharp economic downturns, says David Roda, an investment strategist at Wells Fargo Private Bank. But breakthroughs in areas like mobile computing and Web-based, or "cloud," services are "just beginning," he says, and emerging markets have shown a voracious appetite for technology.

Mutual-fund investors who favor portfolios run by ! stock pi ckers should look for long-tenured management, solid returns and limited volatility, says Flynn Murphy, a mutual-fund analyst at Morningstar. He highlights two examples: Columbia Seligman Communications & Information, which has returned an average of 6.6% a year after expenses over the past 10 years, and Waddell & Reed Advisers Science & Technology, which has returned 7% a year, according to Morningstar data. The category average is 3.3% a year. Returns for both funds are for Class A shares, which carry upfront sales charges of up to 5.75% and yearly expenses of 1.36%.

For investors who chafe at high fees, exchange-traded funds like Vanguard Information Technology and Technology Select Sector SPDR offer broad exposure to technology at yearly expenses of 0.19% and 0.20%, respectively.

Another option is a more broadly focused mutual fund that happens to favor tech. The Oakmark Global fund, one of Morningstar's top picks, has 35% in tech, versus an average for world stock funds of 14%, Mr. Murphy says. It has returned 9.0% a year on average over the past decade, versus an average for world stock funds of 5.2%. There isn't an upfront sales charge, and yearly expenses are 1.16%.

3 Stocks That Are Better Than Facebook to buy in 2012

2012-02-11T01:35:00.000-08:00

Chances are that you have to allocate your investing dollars wisely and where you think you’ll get the best payoff. So, should you put your money on Facebook? Or might it be another company?
I actually think investors can find some much better deals to choose from — without worrying about the fickleness of Internet fads, upstart competitors — which are getting tons of venture capital — as well as giant rivals like Google (NASDAQ:GOOG). Besides, in the Facebook S-1, Mark Zuckerberg does write: “we don’t build services to make money; we make money to build better services.” Yes, this may be scary for some investors.
So what might be some other stocks to consider? Here’s my shortlist of those with a market cap similar to Facebook’s estimated $100 billion:
3 Stocks That Are Better Than Facebook to buy in 2012 - ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) — $92 billion market cap.
Let’s face it, the world is having a tougher time finding oil reserves. Yet the demand continues to grow, especially in countries like China.
In the latest quarter, Conoco’s profits came to $3.39 billion while revenues increased by 17% to $62.39 billion. The company also plans to spin off its refining division, which will generate cash to pay down debt and allow for more focus on deepwater exploration.
Finally, Conoco has a juicy dividend, currently at 3.8%. In other words, if you bought Conoco for $92 billion, your annual distribution would be $3.5 billion. That should be enough for any kind of lifestyle.
Oh yeah, Berkshire Hathaway’s (NYSE:BRK.A) Warren Buffett, who is probably still worth more than Facebook’s Zuckerberg, holds 2.19% of the stock.
3 Stocks That Are Better Than Facebook to buy in 2012 - McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) — $100 billion market cap.
As seen recently, the company has had some snafus with its social media marketing campaigns. But it’s something that Mickey D. will definitely learn from. When it comes to building a brand, few are better than McDonald’s.
And as InvestorPlace.com contributor Gene Marcial points out, the company is really the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) of fast food. And unlike Facebook, it also has a thriving business in China.
Despite the sluggishness in the global economy — especially in Europe — McDonald’s still finds ways to crank out growth. In November, global comparable sales growth came to 7.4%.
What about a dividend? The current yield is 2.8%.
3 Stocks That Are Better Than Facebook to buy in 2012 - QUALCOMM (NASDAQ:QCOM) — $103 billion market cap.
Yesterday, Qualcomm reported a blowout quarter. Revenues soared by 40% to $4.68 billion, with profits coming to $1.4 billion, or 81 cents per share. The company sees next quarter’s revenues at $4.6 billion to $5 billion, which compares to the analyst consensus of $4.51 billion.
Of course, Qualcomm is getting a lift from its Apple business, and it has lots of strength in India and China. So, in light of the expected momentum in the smartphone market, Qualcomm is likely to continue to post high-performance results. By contrast, Facebook makes virtually nothing from its mobile business.
Something else: Qualcomm even has a decent dividend yield of 1.5%. Don’t expect a dividend from Facebook anytime soon.

Consider This Gasoline ETF As A Hedge (UGA)

2012-02-10T03:19:00.000-08:00

The United States Gasoline Fund (NYSEARCA:UGA) is a way for investors and hedgers to manage their exposure to gasoline prices. This exchange traded fund is designed to reflect changes in percentage terms of the price of gasoline as measured by the change in the price of the gasoline futures contract traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Let's take a look at the chart below. UGA formed a breakaway gap from a "Descending Triangle" pattern to start 2012. A descending triangle pattern shows demand at a fixed price level which is where I drew the blue horizontal trendline. It also shows increasing supply pressures with each rally off of support marked by the falling blue trendline.
Eventually either the demand or the supply is going to be depleted by the other. Normally this is a very bearish pattern, since once demand has been depleted; you can almost hear on the chart "look out below". The path of least resistance is lower below $45. Why? Traders who were buying and holding inside the triangle now have a losing position and potentially will be looking to cut losses. This increases supply. Bids become smart money doesn't like to catch a falling knife. Increasing supply with decreasing demand means down we go in price. Eventually the market hits a stopping price where the prior sellers are gone and long term investors now believe there is value and step in for a bargain. This is the reality of a two way auction.
The breakout that we see now on the other hand is not the most bullish indicator. What happened does signal a potential change in trend when the trendline is broken to the upside but you may still have some buy and hold investors at higher levels looking to get out. This can cause a false breakout. Volume was not that strong so this has potential to fill the gap.
I do not rely on technical indicators to make trading decisions, but it's worth pointing out that we had a MACD centerline crossover while UGA was inside the triangle as well as some prior positive bullish! diverge nce the last time UGA was bouncing on support. This was a signal to some technicians that momentum was building to the upside.
I would like to see Gasoline fill the gap and retest that backside of the falling trendline to see if any additional supply comes in. Any move back above this recent high afterward will be bullish and have me taking trades.
A longer term investor might find the horizontal support a great place to put a protective stop, but keep in mind this would be about a 10% move if you are proven wrong. Position sizing would be critical to keep losses to a minimum. Position sizing has everything to do with your account size and how much you are comfortable risking in capital (or how much you drive, since you may offset losses in your UGA hedge at the pump).
UGA often trades less than 100,000 shares so this is not a wise day trading vehicle.

Oil Trades Near One-Week High on Speculation U.S. Economy May Boost Demand

2012-02-09T23:20:00.000-08:00

Oil traded near the highest price ina week in New York and is poised for the first weekly gain inthree amid signs of economic recovery in the U.S., the world sbiggest crude consumer.

Futures were little changed after climbing for a second dayyesterday. U.S. durable goods orders rose more than forecast inDecember, according to Commerce Department data, while a reportthis week showed gasoline demand increased the most in more thantwo months. Australia s crude production may have been cut by aquarter as Tropical Cyclone Iggy shut platforms. Brent oil spremium to New York-traded West Texas Intermediate widened.

The data we ve seen out of the U.S. over the last fewmonths is indicating a recovery in the economy, Michael McCarthy, a chief market strategist at CMC Markets Asia PacificPty in Sydney, said by telephone today. The spread betweenBrent and West Texas has blown out again. That suggests thepotential for some supply disruption out of the Middle East isin the back of traders minds.

Crude for March delivery was at $99.63 a barrel inelectronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 7cents, at 3:29 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contractgained 30 cents to $99.70, the highest settlement since Jan. 19.Prices have climbed 1.2 percent so far this week and 16 percentin the past year.

Brent oil for March settlement on the London-based ICEFutures Europe exchange was at $110.68 a barrel, down 11 cents.The European benchmark contract was at a premium of $11.10 toWest Texas futures. The spread shrank to $9.90 on Jan. 18 andreached a record $27.88 on Oct. 14.
Technical Support

Crude in New York has technical support along its 50-daymoving average, around $99.28 a barrel today, according to datacompiled by Bloomberg. Futures slid to an intraday low yesterdayof $99.23. Buy orders tend to be clustered near chart-supportlevels.

West Texas is in a key area between $99 and $102 so if wedo see it trade up through $102.50 in the next few sess! ions wec ould well get a bit of a gallop on, McCarthy said.

U.S. bookings for durable goods, or products meant to lastat least three years, advanced 3 percent after rising 4.3percent the prior month, the biggest back-to-back gains inalmost a year, based on a Commerce Department report yesterdayin Washington. A median 2 percent increase was predicted by 78economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Fuel consumption rose 7.5 percent to 19.2 million barrels aday in the week ended Jan. 20, the largest gain since Nov. 4,the Energy Department said on Jan. 25.
Iran Sanctions

Oil has also risen this week amid concern European Unionsanctions on Iran will curb supplies. EU foreign ministersagreed on Jan. 23 to ban petroleum imports from the Persian Gulfnation from July 1 to pressure the country over its nuclearprogram. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said his countryis willing to revive talks on its nuclear plans and accusedWestern countries of dodging discussions, the state-run Farsnews agency reported yesterday.

Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz inretaliation against the embargo. The waterway is a transit routefor about a fifth of the world s crude, according to the U.S.Department of Energy.

More than 70 percent of investors in a quarterly BloombergGlobal Poll said an attack on Iran s nuclear facilities wouldcreate only a short-term disruption in crude markets. About athird of 1,209 global investors, traders and analysts surveyedfrom Jan. 23 to Jan. 24 said an attack could trigger an oilshock leading to a global recession.
Tropical Cyclone Iggy

Crude may rise next week on the EU embargo plan and afterthe Federal Reserve committed to keep interest rates near arecord low through 2014, according to a Bloomberg News survey.Fifteen of 32 analysts and traders, or 47 percent, forecast oilwill advance through Feb. 3. Ten respondents, or 31 percent,predicted prices will drop and seven estimated there will belittle change.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy! reduced Australian oil output thisweek by as much as 100,000 barrels a day, or about a quarter ofthe country s average production last fiscal year. The stormwill strengthen to Category 3 tomorrow, the third-strongest on afive-step scale, the Bureau of Meteorology said on its website.

Obama and Buffett Rule Make ¡®Good Tax Politics, Not Good Tax Policy,¡¯ Expert Says

2012-02-09T15:40:00.000-08:00

President Barack Obama delivering the State of the Union address on Tuesday night. (Photo: AP)

A central focus of President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address Tuesday night was economic fairness, and requiring the wealthiest of Americans to pay more in taxes, but tax specialists and wealth managers say hiking taxes for the rich will do nothing to fix the tax code–which they say is a mess.
Obama’s proposal to cut $3.6 trillion from the deficit over the next decade through a measure called the Buffett rule, named for billionaire investor Warren Buffett, which increases taxes on wealthy Americans who earn $1 million or more per taxable year, is merely “good tax politics, not good tax policy,” says Christopher Bergin, president of Tax Analysts.
The fundamental problem with the tax code, Bergin says, is that “our tax system right now picks winners and losers.” The wages that average workers pay and are reported on their W-2s are taxed “differently” than the money Buffett and Mitt Romney, the current GOP presidential candidate, make, which is “not by working but by moving money around.” The way the law is written, Buffett and Romney “get a better tax rate than the rest of us.”
As Obama said during his speech on Tuesday, “Tax reform should follow the Buffett rule. If you make more than $1 million a year, you should not pay less than 30% in taxes.… Washington should stop subsidizing millionaires. In fact, if you’re earning a million dollars a year, you shouldn’t get special tax subsidies or deductions.” On the other hand, he said, “if you make under $250,000 a year, like 98% of American families, your taxes shouldn’t go up. You’re the ones struggling with rising costs and stagnant wages. You’re the ones who need relief.”
But “sticking it to the rich” will not fix the income tax code, “which is extremely problematic,” Bergin says. The tax system as it stands now “benefits the rich, and the poor–however you want to categorize them–lower income people do not pay federal income taxes. Some of them get refundable earned income tax credits for some of the payroll taxes they pay.” But it is the middle income folks–those generally earning $100,000 to $500,000 per year, Bergin says, that “really get hit; and are paying more of an effective [tax] rate than Romney.”
Obama also said he wants to let the Bush tax cuts expire. “When it comes to the deficit, we’ve already agreed to more than $2 trillion in cuts and savings. But we need to do more, and that means making choices,” Obama said. “Right now, we’re poised to spend nearly $1 trillion more on what was supposed to be a temporary tax break for the wealthiest 2% of Americans. Right now, because of loopholes and shelters in the tax code, a quarter of all millionaires pay lower tax rates than millions of middle-class households. Right now, Warren Buffett pays a lower tax rate than his secretary.”
Asked Obama: “Do we want to keep these tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans? Or do we want to keep our investments in everything else–like education and medical research; a strong military and care for our veterans? Because if we’re serious about paying down our debt, we can’t do both.”

Obama went on to say that America needs “to change our tax code so that people like me, and an awful lot of members of Congress, pay our fair share of taxes.”
But Bergin doubts Congress will make any headway in reforming the tax code this year. Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, and “his colleagues have to deal with things that are timed to blow up this year or have already blown up last year; there is no opportunity for tax reform this year.”
Lawmakers must grapple this year with the Alternative Minimum Tax, as the patch instituted last year has expired, as well as the estate tax. Bergin says he’s been hearing from wealth managers “who don’t know how to advise their clients” because the estate tax rules revert back to 2001 rates at the end of 2012.
Then there’s the payroll tax cut, which was extended for two-months before Congress’ holiday recess and that expires on Feb. 29. The Temporary Payroll Tax Cut Continuation Act of 2011 extends the two-percentage-point payroll tax cut for employees, continuing the reduction of the Social Security tax withholding rate from 6.2% to 4.2%.
Obama urged Congress during his speech to pass the payroll tax cut “without delay.” He said Congress’ “most immediate priority is stopping a tax hike on 160 million working Americans while the recovery is still fragile.”
Bergin says there’s a danger for Social Security if Congress continues to “extend” the payroll tax cut as opposed to a long-term solution. “If [Congress] keeps extending this payroll tax cut there’s a threat to Social Security that no one is talking about, of it not becoming a separate system but just another budget item” for Congress.

The Reorganization Man - the government we have is not the government we need

2012-02-08T12:49:00.000-08:00

The Washington rap on President Obama is that he's humorless, but that's unfair. He may not be Jay Leno funny, but his bit Friday on reforming and reducing government was great.
There he was in the East Room, explaining that "the government we have is not the government we need." That's for sure, and Mr. Obama even added the Gingrichian theme that "We live in a 21st-century economy, but we've still got a government organized for the 20th century. Our economy has fundamentally changed—as has the world—but our government, our agencies, has not."

President Obama delivers remarks on reforming the size of the federal government at the White House on Friday.

Alas, the President wasn't talking about modernizing Medicare or the entitlement state. He merely wants Congress to give him more power to reorganize the government. He says he wants his team to scrub down the executive branch looking for waste, duplication and bureaucratic complexity, and then to fast-track their proposals to Congress for an up-or-down vote within 90 days.
Mr. Obama's first targets for such "consolidation authority" are the six agencies related to business and the world economy, from the Commerce Department to the Export-Import Bank to the U.S. Trade Represen! tative. Maybe the White House chose to start there because, with an eye on the GOP campaign, Rick Perry wants to eliminate Commerce and a few other cabinet departments he can't remember.
Another way of putting it is that this new emphasis on streamlining the bureaucracy is Mr. Obama's version of the Texas Governor's "Oops." Having presided over the largest expansion of government since LBJ—health care, financial reregulation, spending 24% of GDP, the surge of industrial policy—Mr. Obama's pollsters must be saying that voters have the jimmy-legs about bigger government and that he thus can't run only as a Great Society man.

Enlarge Image

But let's go to the videotape. One measure of government size is the federal work force, measured by the White House budget office as civilian full-time equivalent employees, excluding the military and Post Office. The executive branch had about 1.875 million workers in 2008 when the financial crisis hit, a number that held relatively constant throughout the post-9/11 Bush Administration. That number climbed to 2.128 million two years later under the 111th Congress—or growth of 13.5%. That's the largest government since 1992, when the Clinton Administration began to slash defense! spendin g.
This jobs boom is projected to decline slightly this year, to 2.116 million public employees, and the Administration says the Commerce unwind will take it down by another 1,000 or so. Yet even that would come through attrition, which usually means the competent people leave when they've had it with the lifers.
Proposals for government reorganization are the elevator music of politics, always present but never leaving much of an impression. Newt Gingrich says he's running in part to apply Lean Six Sigma best practices to the bureaucracy. Al Gore famously drew up a scheme for "reinventing government" in the late 1990s. He abandoned it after the airline unions revolted amid his attempt to reinvent the Federal Aviation Administration.

Joe Rago on President Obama's proposal to merge agencies within the Commerce Department.

Reshuffling agencies rarely works because what's important in government isn't where the bureaucrats sit but their mindset. The incentives are for inertia, turf protection and blame-shifting—unless change is imposed from the top. Mr. Obama has made it clear with his priorities over three years that his preference is for the government status quo, only more of it.
But Mr. Obama is now at least bowing to the principle of smaller government, and our advice to Congress is to weigh his proposals and extract some concessions to see if the President means what he says.
A major concern is the office of the U.S. trade rep, which Mr. Obama wants to subsume within the Commerce monolith. But the trade rep office is one of the best in government precisely because it is small, reports to the White House, and is focused on the single mission of trade expansion. As part of Commerce it may be drowned out by protectionist voices.
Another priority ought! to be r eforming the 47 separate job retraining programs, all but three of which overlap. The Government Accountability Office calls this wasteful with "no measurable benefit," but the White House has rebuffed any meaningful change.
This is a President who last year promised a review of all regulations while riding the greatest rule-making wave in American history. Now he's calling for leaner government without mentioning ObamaCare and Dodd-Frank, which create so many new boards and commissions that government auditors (literally) can't even count them. We suspect many in the White House were laughing themselves when they came up with this one.

Chapter 7 Or 13 on Personal Bankruptcy in 2012

2012-02-07T10:29:00.000-08:00

Bankruptcy laws in the United States are made to ensure the interests of the borrower are safeguarded, and are formed by the federal government and addressed accordingly by various US Bankruptcy Courts, and it is believed that each year as many as one million Americans go bankrupt and are found filing for bankruptcy. Most of these individuals that file for bankruptcy do so under different personal bankruptcy laws that include chapter thirteen and also chapter 7, and in a few instances, they can even qualify for chapter twelve, especially if they are anglers or farmers and business is owned by the family.

Filing Under Chapter Seven

You can file personal bankruptcy and at the same time do so under chapter seven in which case it is necessary for you to provide a list of all your assets to the court and also have to assign a trustee who will liquidate items in order to pay off creditors. Furthermore, filing personal bankruptcy is allowed once in seven years and the cost of filing personal bankruptcy is approximately three hundred dollars which goes towards filing fee.

If you plan on filing personal bankruptcy under chapter thirteen, it will help in reducing your debt though unlike chapter seven, does not cancel out your debt. And, chapter thirteen personal bankruptcies also means having to set out a plan for repayment with creditors and courts and assigning trustee who will make monthly payments after paying them the money. The trustee will receive payments from you and apportion them to various creditors, and an advantage to using chapter thirteen for filing personal bankruptcy is that unlike in chapter seven, under this chapter you may hold on to everything that would have been lost under chapter seven.

However, both these types of personal bankruptcy allows the debtor to rid him or herself of debts, though remember when filing chapter thirteen bankruptcy, you need to have debt that is not more than two hundred fifty thousand dollars and that such debt is uns! ecured, while debts that are secured should not exceed seven hundred and fifty thousand dollars.

The bottom line is that before filing for personal bankruptcy, makes sure to know what the ramifications of different chapters are and in most instances it may be better to file for chapter thirteen instead of chapter seven as the latter shows that you are a person that does not pay your debts.

Marathon Petroleum Corp (NYSE: MPC) May Soon Be the World¡¯s Richest Refiner

2012-02-07T06:02:00.000-08:00

There's an oil price trend that's giving some oil refining companies a huge competitive edge.

Specifically I'm referring to Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC).

You see, production from North Dakota's Bakken oil shale formation - the largest known reserve of light sweet crude in North America - is soaring. It went from a mere 3,000 barrels a day in 2005 to 225,000 in 2010, and could hit 350,000 barrels a day by 2035, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Currently, there aren't many ways to ship oil out of the basin, and supply in the region is outpacing refining capacity. That's helped keep the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lower than the price of Brent crude in London, with the spread now around $17.

Since U.S. East Coast refineries usually source Brent-priced crude oil, their input costs have skyrocketed. This is one of the reasons major integrated oil companies have shed their refining capacities.

But Midwest refineries have been able to save money by running WTI-priced oil, getting crude at significantly cheaper prices than globally sourced locations.

With the Bakken formation ramping up production in coming years to meet growing demand, the region's refineries will continue to enjoy low input costs. It also means refineries that have access to Bakken oil will have a steady supply that's cheaper than their competitors.

This is why Marathon Petroleum Corp., the largest Midwest refiner, is a "Buy." (**)

Marathon Petroleum Corp.

Ohio-based Marathon Petroleum Corp. was formed July 1, 2011 when Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO) spun off its highly profitable refinery and gas station business. It's the fifth largest petroleum refiner in the United States, with its six refineries offering a combined capacity of 1,142,000 barrels of oil per day.

G! ary R. H eminger, Marathon's new chief executive officer, said his company has built a strong enough refining position in the Midwest to ward off competition. He doesn't expect new pipelines and rail yard capacity bringing oil from the Bakken to the Gulf Coast to soften his competitive edge. The oil still needs a high-volume consumer and his refineries are the most obvious choice.

"If you look at Midwest refineries, we already have plenty of pipeline capacity into our plants," Heminger said at the Reuters Global Energy and Climate Summit. "It really comes back to (West Texas Intermediate) and lighter-type crudes that are in and around Cushing [Oklahoma, where WTI is priced]. They're looking for a home."

Marathon also will profit from its operations beyond the Midwest.

It's negotiating with pipeline companies to use its Texas refinery to process more crude from the new Eagle Ford Shale. The new Eagle Ford is unconventional shale oil that's extremely light, and can be mixed with another cheap blend - a heavy, sour crude - to make a more expensive finished product.

Marathon's Detroit refinery is undergoing a $2.2 billion overhaul that'll let it process heavy Canadian crude, which currently is priced even cheaper than WTI.

Marathon also has a profitable retail footprint. It operates 5,100 Marathon-branded gas stations in 18 states and 1,350 Speedway-branded convenience stores in seven states. It has more than 9,600 miles of pipelines into and out of its facilities.

The new refining company has a market cap of $13.3 billion with an enterprise value of $14.6 billion once net cash and debt is taken into consideration. The company reported $66.8 billion in revenue over the last trailing 12 months.

Third quarter earnings released Nov. 1 showed a 309% increase in net income from 2010's third quarter to $1.13 billion. Earnings per diluted share rose to $3.16 from $0.77 last year. Marathon also announced Oct. 26 a 25% div! idend in crease, for a yield of 2.6%.

The company has historical price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.2 over the last 12 months with an estimated forward P/E ratio of 5.6.

Its stock has soared more than 17% in the past month, closing yesterday (Wednesday) at $37.02.

Action to Take: Buy Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) (**).

It's time to buy Marathon Petroleum Corp. as it positions itself to profit from low input costs and high refining capacity.

I would buy half of our position now at market price, with an eye toward selling naked puts contracts for the other half of the position. This would give you a chance to be exposed to the upside move while increasing the overall cash yield on your first-half position.

(**) Special Note of Disclosure: Jack Barnes has no interest in Marathon Petroleum Corporation. (NYSE: MPC).

See what happens when the dead cat doesn't bounce in 2012

2012-02-07T05:31:00.000-08:00

In Monday’s Daily Market Outlook, we examined charts of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq — two indices with a focused nature. The S&P 500 is generally considered to be the “best” 500 companies, while the Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward the technology sector. I concluded that it was likely that Friday’s rally resulted from the expiration of April options and was therefore a forced short-covering rally that could quickly turn into a dead cat bounce.
Today, we’ll look at charts of two of the broadest-based indices, the NYSE Composite, which is composed of all common stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange, and the Russell 3000, which measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing about 98% of all stocks traded in the United States.

The NYSE Composite chart shows a clear break of the 20- and 50-day moving averages following a strong sell signal from our internal indicator, the Collins-Bollinger Reversal (CBR). This coupled with a Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) sell signal (lower right) indicates that Friday’s rally was not sustained.
The only remaining bit of evidence to fully wrap it up for the bears would be a close under the green support line at about 8,220. A close under that line would confirm a breakdown from a double-top with a trading objective of about 7,900.

The Russell 3000 chart is similar to the NYSE, but shows twin CBR sell signals (strong bearish indicators). However, we require a close under the green support line at 770 to fully confirm a breakdown.
Neither chart supports the bulls, and both charts, as well as the ones of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq that we examined yesterday, closed below their respective 20- and 50-day moving averages.
Conclusion: The stock market is headed lower with objectives close to their respective 200-day moving averages (red solid line.)
Investors should remain on the defensive, selling into rallies, and traders should actively pursue bearish strategies. For one stock to sell or short, see the Trade of the Day.

A123 Systems Expands Partnership With IHI Corporation to Meet Increasing Demand for Lithium Ion Battery Technology in Japanese Transportation Market

2012-02-06T11:26:00.000-08:00

IHI to License A123’s Nanophosphate(R) Battery System Technology to Develop Solutions for Passenger and Commercial Electric Vehicles in Japan; IHI Will Make $25 Million Equity Investment in A123
WALTHAM, Mass., Nov. 7, 2011 (CRWENewswire) — A123 Systems (Nasdaq:AONE), a developer and manufacturer of advanced Nanophosphate(R)lithium ion batteries and systems, today announced that it has expanded its business development partnership with IHI Corporation, one of the largest industrial equipment manufacturers in Japan, to more strategically meet increasing demand for A123’s solutions in the Japanese transportation market. A123 will license its battery system technology to IHI, which will develop solutions for passenger and commercial electric vehicles in Japan using A123 battery cells. In addition, IHI will make a $25 million equity investment in A123.
“Since first partnering with A123 in 2009, we have seen increasing interest in A123’s advanced lithium ion battery technology for transportation and other applications. We believe that expanding our partnership enables IHI to address this growing market opportunity by commercializing innovative solutions powered by A123’s batteries,” said Taizo Suga, Associate Director, General Manager, Corporate Development Division at IHI. “A123’s Nanophosphate lithium ion chemistry has proven to be among the highest-performing, most durable and longest lasting battery technologies we’ve seen, which we feel makes them optimal for vehicle electrification. We look forward to working closely with A123 as a technology partner, and we also believe our equity investment in A123 will demonstrate a meaningful commitment to our expanded strategic business relationship.”
Under the terms of a technology license agreement, IHI will be the exclusive provider of A123 battery systems and modules in the Japanese transportation market, licensing A123’s advanced battery system technol! ogy and systems integration expertise to manufacture solutions for electric vehicles. It is expected that this will enable A123 to leverage the customer relationships IHI has developed with leading Japanese automakers. A related product supply agreement also establishes A123 as the exclusive supplier of lithium ion battery cells to IHI for transportation as well as non-transportation applications that IHI may develop as a future value-added reseller, which has the potential of creating new market opportunities for A123 technology across IHI’s global businesses.
“IHI is a well-established technology supplier to the Japanese auto industry , so we believe that expanding our relationship provides us with a strong strategic partner to help us more effectively and efficiently deliver our solutions to the Japanese transportation market,” said Jason Forcier, vice president of the Automotive Solutions Group at A123. “Additionally, we believe that we have a competitive advantage as the exclusive provider of lithium ion battery cells to IHI for the licensed applications as well as potential additional applications beyond transportation, allowing us to capitalize on new market opportunities introduced by IHI’s robust global network of businesses.”
About A123 Systems
A123 Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq:AONE) is a leading developer and manufacturer of advanced lithium-ion batteries and energy storage systems for transportation, electric grid and commercial applications. The company’s proprietary Nanophosphate(R) technology is built on novel nanoscale materials initially developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and is designed to deliver high power and energy density, increased safety and extended life. A123 leverages breakthrough technology, high-quality manufacturing and expert systems integration capabilities to deliver innovative solutions that enable customers to bring next-generation products to market. For additional information please vis! it www.a 123systems.com.
Safe Harbor Disclosure
This press release includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, including statements with respect to the anticipated benefits of the expanded strategic business relationship, the market for alternative energy transportation in Japan and the timing of expected production and availability of IHI’s solutions based on A123’s system technology and their anticipated performance, benefits and features, as well as the expected demand by IHI for battery cells to be supplied by A123, and the expected performance of A123’s battery technology and lithium ion battery cells . Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements are: delays in customer and market demand for and adoption ofIHI’s battery system products, delays in the development, production and supply of IHI’s products, adverse economic conditions in general and adverse economic conditions specifically affecting the markets in which A123 and IHI operate and other risks detailed in A123 Systems’ 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2011 and other publicly available filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All forward-looking statements reflect A123’s expectations only as of the date of this release and should not be relied upon as reflecting A123’s views, expectations or beliefs at any date subsequent to the date of this release.

McCann and His Team: Lots of Merrill Lynch

2012-02-05T01:20:00.000-08:00

Bob McCann, the former head of Merrill Lynch's brokerage force, joined UBS in November 2009, when it had about 7,300 advisors in the Americas. And the recently hired head of wealth management for the Americas is now putting together a team to help him boost results.
In a January 19 memo, in which he describes his effort in forming a "Renewal Team," McCann says that leaders are being hired to make changes "in how we interface with our clients and financial advisors, with particular focus on streamlining processes, increasing efficiencies and driving the business forward."
The new hires and leadership shifts include:
- Bob Mulholland, formerly of Merrill Lynch, will now head UBS Americas' Wealth Management Advisor Group (replacing Jamie Prince);
- Brian Hull, another ex-Merrill Lynch executive, will head Wealth Management Partnerships;
- John Brown, head of Wealth Management Solutions;
- David Satler, chief of staff - as well as head of Human Resources; and
- Paula Polito, another Merrill Lynch veteran, is now chief marketing officer.
Other executive changes effect:
- Jamie Price, who moves to an advisory role for the firm, "working with Bob Mulholland and his team, while he considers new career opportunities;"
- Jim Hausmann, who has been serving as interim head of Products and Services for the past six months, will assume a leadership role in the new Wealth Management Solutions organization, reporting to John Brown; and
- Kim Jenson takes on a new senior role and will be responsible for Wealth Management Advisor communications, reporting to Paula Polito.

China Wants Its Money Back in 2012

2012-02-04T22:05:00.000-08:00

Late word is that the China Development Bank may pass on putting $2 billion into Citigroup (C) as was planned. According to The Wall Street Journal the Chinese government may be blocking the deal.
As China puts more and more money into US government debt and invests in troubled financial institutions it would be well to remember that one of its earlier deals, an investment in BlackStone (BX), turned out to be about as bad as an investment could get. Shares in the firm have gone from $38 to $20.
China wants it money back. Maybe then it will put in some more.
Douglas A. McIntyre

A broad band of support at S&P 500 1,124 to 1,225 will likely slow the decline

2012-02-04T04:29:00.000-08:00

A fall in the euro sent equity and commodity markets into a downward spiral yesterday. Sentiment against the euro strengthened following Germany��s stand that its government is against raising the lending limit for a euro zone bailout.
In response, Italy��s 10-year bond yield rose 7%-plus, and Spain and France saw their bond yields jump as well. The U.S. dollar rose, of course, and the rise was accentuated by a series of better-than-expected economic reports.
Commodities fell sharply in response to the stronger dollar. The CRB Index fell 3.4%, and gold settled at $1,587.70 an ounce, down 4.6%, and silver lost 7.6%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,823, off 1.1%, the S&P 500 ended at 1,212, down 1.13%, and the Nasdaq closed at 2,539, down 1.55%. The NYSE traded 928 million shares, and the Nasdaq crossed 512 million. Decliners were ahead of advancers on the Big Board by 3-to-1 and on the Nasdaq by 2-to-1.
Yesterday, every major index violated its near-term support as the dollar rocketed to new highs.
The breakdown of the S&P 500 is significant because it confirmed the failure of the index to break higher at its bearish resistance line (June/July, October and November highs); it turned down from its 200-day moving average — a confirmation that the long-term bear market is intact; and it crushed the near-term support provided by the conjunction of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
The question is: How low will it go?
The answer may surprise you: Not very far, at least initially. There is a broad band of support at 1,124 to 1,225 that will more than likely slow the decline, and the uptrend line of a major trading triangle rests at 1,175.
Additionally, the Fibonacci numbers off of the November low to the December are: 50% = 1,212 (yesterday��s close), 61.8% = 1,200.
Finally, we are approaching the holiday period when trading traditionally slows and volume falls until we enter the New Year.
! Yesterda y��s higher close in the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:UUP) confirmed the bull market in the U.S. dollar, and that conclusion is backed by the MACD buy signal. But volume on the breakout is not as high as the average volume of the October sell-off.
Conclusion: The most followed indices have broken from major support levels, indicating that the bear market is intact and that prices should head modestly lower.
But European politicians are no less nimble than our own. When our credit markets were in jeopardy (not that they still aren��t), the Feds sprang TARP, then QE1 and QE2 while dropping interest rates to near zero. And each move was immediately greeted with a rebound in stocks.
The Europeans have followed the same pattern and will, in desperation, scramble to turn an outgoing tide with each attempt triggering a rally in equities. Thus, shorts should expect violent rebounds. Take profits when you can. (Check out my colleague John Jagerson who turned a 67% profit overnight last week.) And protect positions with stop-loss orders.
The trend is down, but expect more volatility and less predictability.

Alamos Gold PT Trimmed At CIBC Reflecting Higher Costs in 2012

2012-02-03T18:55:00.000-08:00

CIBC World Markets Inc. cut its price target on Alamos Gold Inc. (TSX:AGI.TO) to $23.00 from $24.00, reflecting higher costs for 2013 estimates.
Barry Cooper, an analyst at CIBC, cut his 2012 EPS estimates for thecompany to US$1.33 from US$1.47 and 2013 estimates to US$1.72 fromUS1.77.
Production in the fourth quarter was essentially in line with ourexpectations of 43,000 ounces, Cooper said. The 46,500 ounces producedincluded 3,000 ounces of non-commercial production from the Escondidazone.
Cooper wrote that the start up of the mill associated with Escondidaore will be a major milestone for the operation. The boost will comefrom both grades and costs and partially offset total cash costs thatare expected to be approaching $600/oz for the heap leach operationalone, he said.
"Grades are expected to be down 23% at the Mulatos pit year-over-yearand follow a previous decline of 18% in 2011. This should be a lowpoint relative to the reserve grade, although higher gold prices will beaffecting reserve figures for AGI as well as others as low gradesbecome economical," Cooper said.
"Throughput for Mulatos may prove difficult to achieve given the17,500 TPD avg that has been forecast. About 500 TPD will come from milltailings, but to avg 17,000 TPD for the main crusher facility may beaggressive," Cooper wrote. "We think that there could be a cushion inthe grade estimate that could help."
The stock is currently trading 0.12% lower at $17.31. The shares havebeen trading in the 52-week range between $13.26 and $20.15.
{$end}

(AEHR,TIII, ASTX, CLNO, SHOR) Stock to Watch by DrStockPick.com

2012-02-02T01:45:00.000-08:00

Aehr Test Systems (Nasdaq:AEHR), a worldwide supplier of semiconductor test and burn-in equipment, announced financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2012 ended August 31, 2011.
Net sales were $4.1 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2012, compared with $2.2 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2011. Aehr Test reported net income of $124,000, or $0.01 per diluted share, in the first quarter of fiscal 2012, compared to a net loss of $1.5 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, in the first quarter of fiscal 2011. The Company’s net income for first quarter fiscal 2012 included a gain of $990,000 from the sale of its investment in ESA Electronics PTE Ltd.
Commenting on the results of the first quarter, Rhea Posedel, chairman and chief executive officer of Aehr Test Systems, said, “We are pleased to have started fiscal 2012 off with a profitable first quarter. Our revenues for the quarter grew 90% year-over-year and were up 10% sequentially. A major contributor to this growth was the shipment of a number of FOX(TM)-1 WaferPak contactors for full wafer, one touchdown sort testing of flash memory wafers. We also had an increase in ABTS(TM) revenues in the quarter, reflecting the inroads we are making in adding new customers. At the same time, we gained a new customer in China for our ABTS product and booked follow-on ABTS system orders from existing customers.
“Looking ahead, we are seeing a higher level of interest in our broad base of products,” continued Posedel. “We remain focused on penetrating key production accounts with our ABTS and FOX products to grow our business.”
Headquartered in Fremont, California, Aehr Test Systems is a worldwide provider of systems for burning-in and testing DRAMs, flash and other memory and logic integrated circuits and has an installed base of more than 2,500 systems worldwide. Aehr Test has developed! and int roduced several innovative products, including the ABTS, FOX and MAX systems and the DiePak(R) carrier. The ABTS system is Aehr Test’s newest system for packaged part test during burn-in for both low-power and high-power logic as well as all common types of memory devices. The FOX system is a full wafer contact test and burn-in system. The MAX system can effectively burn-in and functionally test complex devices, such as digital signal processors, microprocessors, microcontrollers and systems-on-a-chip. The DiePak carrier is a reusable, temporary package that enables IC manufacturers to perform cost-effective final test and burn-in of bare die.
For more information, please visit the Company’s website at www.aehr.com.
Tii Network Technologies, Inc (Nasdaq:TIII) a leader in designing, manufacturing and marketing network products for the communications industry, announced the appointment of Stacey L. Moran as Vice President - Finance, Chief Financial Officer, Secretary and Treasurer.
Tii Network Technologies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells products for use in the networks to service providers in the communications industry in the United States.
Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq:ASTX) announced that preclinical data demonstrating that AT13387, a novel non-ansamycin Heat Shock Protein 90 (HSP90) inhibitor, is active in in vitro gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) models (Abstract #9407) was presented at the 2011 ECCO (European Cancer Organization) European Multidisciplinary Cancer Congress in Stockholm, Sweden.
Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a pharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel therapeutics with a focus on oncology and hematology.
Cleantech Transit, Inc. (CLNO)
Cleantech Transit Inc. was founded to capitalize on technology advances and manufacturing opportunities in the gro! wing cle an energy public transportation sector. The Company has expanded its focus to invest directly in specific green projects. Recognizing the many economic and operational advances of converting wood waste into renewable sources of energy, Cleantech has selected to invest in Phoenix Energy (www.phoenixenergy.net). This project could benefit the Company’s manufacturing clients worldwide.
Cleantech Transit, Inc. (CLNO) is pleased to announce it has met its funding requirement to secure the Company’s ability to earn in 25% of the 500KW Merced Project.
The Company is in the final stages of closing its initial interest in the Merced Project and is currently working on completing the necessary documentation and expects closing the transaction soon. As previously announced Cleantech has the option to earn up to 40% of the Merced Project and the Company plans to continue to work towards increasing its interest in the Merced Project as they move ahead.
Biomass is made from plants and is essentially a form of solar energy. Plants absorb energy from the sun as they grow through the process of photosynthesis. Plants use the sun’s energy to break carbon dioxide and water molecules apart into their basic elements, hydrogen, carbon and oxygen. The hydrogen and carbon are used to build the molecules that the plants are made of. Most of the oxygen is released back into the atmosphere.
For more information about Cleantech Transit, Inc. visit its website www.cleantechtransitinc.com
ShoreTel, Inc. (Nasdaq:SHOR) the leading provider of brilliantly simple IP phone systems with fully integrated unified communications (UC), welcomes Sunnyvale Mayor Melinda Hamilton, as she visits ShoreTel headquarters in recognition of the company’s success.
Shoretel, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and sale of Internet protocol (IP) communications systems for enterprises in the United States and internationally.

Lehman Forced to Revise Bankruptcy Exit Plan

2012-02-01T15:55:00.000-08:00

After some creditors rejected Lehman Brothers' Chapter 11 proposals, the company revised its plan to exit bankruptcy, filing a new plan in New York, Bloomberg reported Wednesday.
The plan didn't list a voting deadline for creditors or propose a date for the confirmation hearing, Bloomberg reports. Lehman will start soliciting votes for the plan after the summer, and final court approval may be near the end of the year.
Lehman plans to raise $61 billion by selling assets and reducing allowable claims to $322 billion, Bloomberg reports. The average Lehman creditor would receive 18.6 cents on the dollar, and senior bondholders would receive 21.4 cents. Creditors with general unsecured claims would receive a 19.8% return, according to Bloomberg.
Derivatives creditors, which include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America, would get 22.3 cents, Bloomberg reports. As of the third quarter of 2010, Lehman had settled over 45% of derivatives transactions made by the Lehman Brother Special Financing unit. When Lehman filed for bankruptcy it was involved in 1.2 million derivatives transactions.
Hedge fund Paulson & Co. and other creditors with large claims against Lehman Brothers argued that Lehman's original plan "created conflict among creditors of Lehman's units," and offered their own plan in December, Bloomberg reports. In that plan, bondholders received 24.5 cents, and derivatives creditors received 25.7 cents. The group, which includes the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, PIMCO and Canyon Partners LLC, a Los Angeles-based $19 billion hedge fund, hold $80 billion in claims against Lehman, Bloomberg writes.
Lehman's revised plan incorporates elements of the Paulson plan and offers bondholders more money than the original plan, which proposed giving creditors 17 cents. If the Paulson group opposes the revised plan, their payout will be reduced to the original amount, Bloomberg reports.
“We think this is the fairest way to deal with all the legal issues,” Lehman President John Suckow told Bloomberg by phone Wednesday. “We’re hoping to get people to rally around this plan in coming weeks and months.”
At the end of 2010, Lehman held $24 billion in cash and $37 billion in real estate, private equity and other assets, Bloomberg writes.

A Hidden Reason Why the Future Looks Bright for FEI

2012-02-01T01:19:00.000-08:00

Here at The Motley Fool, I've long cautioned investors to keep a close eye on inventory levels. It's a part of my standard diligence when searching for the market's best stocks. I think a quarterly checkup can help you spot potential problems. For many companies, products that sit on the shelves too long can become big trouble. Stale inventory may be sold for lower prices, hurting profitability. In extreme cases, it may be written off completely and sent to the shredder.
Basic guidelines
In this series, I examine inventory using a simple rule of thumb: Inventory increases ought to roughly parallel revenue increases. If inventory bloats more quickly than sales grow, this might be a sign that expected sales haven't materialized.
Is the current inventory situation at FEI (Nasdaq: FEIC ) out of line? To figure that out, start by comparing the company's figures to those from peers and competitors:

Company	TTM Revenue Growth	TTM Inventory Growth
FEI	32.7%	20.0%
Hitachi (NYSE: HIT )	0.4%	11.6%
Cognex (Nasdaq: CGNX )	25.6%	19.8%
FARO Technologies (Nasdaq: FARO )	31.4%	73.6%

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of latest fully reported quarter. TTM = trailing 12 months.

How is FEI doing by this quick checkup? At first glan! ce, pret ty well. Trailing-12-month revenue increased 32.7%, and inventory increased 20%. Over the sequential quarterly period, the trend looks healthy. Revenue dropped 2.7%, and inventory dropped 5.5%.
Advanced inventory
I don't stop my checkup there, because the type of inventory can matter even more than the overall quantity. There's even one type of inventory bulge we sometimes like to see. You can check for it by examining the quarterly filings to evaluate the different kinds of inventory: raw materials, work-in-progress inventory, and finished goods. (Some companies report the first two types as a single category.)
A company ramping up for increased demand may increase raw materials and work-in-progress inventory at a faster rate when it expects robust future growth. As such, we might consider oversized growth in those categories to offer a clue to a brighter future, and a clue that most other investors will miss. We call it "positive inventory divergence."
On the other hand, if we see a big increase in finished goods, that often means product isn't moving as well as expected, and it's time to hunker down with the filings and conference calls to find out why.
What's going on with the inventory at FEI? I chart the details below for both quarterly and 12-month periods.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of latest fully reported quarter. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of latest fully reported quarter. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

Let's dig into the inventory specifics. On a trailing-12-month basis, raw materials ! inventor y was the fastest-growing segment, up 42.6%. On a sequential-quarter basis, finished goods inventory was the fastest-growing segment, up 0.2%. FEI seems to be handling inventory well enough, but the individual segments don't provide a clear signal. FEI may display positive inventory divergence, suggesting that management sees increased demand on the horizon.
Foolish bottom line
When you're doing your research, remember that aggregate numbers such as inventory balances often mask situations that are more complex than they appear. Even the detailed numbers don't give us the final word. When in doubt, listen to the conference call, or contact investor relations. What at first looks like a problem may actually signal a stock that will provide the market's best returns. And what might look hunky-dory at first glance could actually be warning you to cut your losses before the rest of the Street wises up.
I run these quick inventory checks every quarter. To stay on top of the inventory story at your favorite companies, just use the handy links below to add companies to your free watchlist, and we'll deliver our latest coverage right to your inbox.

Add FEI to My Watchlist.
Add Hitachi to My Watchlist.
Add Cognex to My Watchlist.
Add FARO Technologies to My Watchlist.

5 Undervalued Recession-Proof Stocks

2012-01-31T17:39:00.000-08:00

Markets were crushed Thursday on signs of slowing growth in China and Germany and a gloomy economic outlook from the Federal Reserve, reported CNBC. In response, investors fled to the safety of the U.S. dollar and government bonds.
The U.S dollar climbed 1.36%, which pushed down U.S crude oil prices by more than 5%. Gold dropped nearly $50/ounce and European stocks fell 4% to a two-year low, "dragging an index of global equities to a one-year trough." This was all before 11 a.m.
Market volatility isn't going anywhere, and more cloudy days may still be ahead for the global economy.
So how can you prepare yourself for more market losses?
For ideas, we went back into time, and identified a list of stocks that outperformed the market during each of the last three big market downturns over the last decade (Oct. 1, 2007 to March 2, 2009, April 19, 2010 to June 28, 2010, and July 18, 2011 to the present).
In addition, all of these stocks appear to be undervalued, when comparing levered free cash flow to enterprise value.
Considering the track record of these companies during downturns, are they being underestimated by the market?
List sorted by each stock's average alpha relative to the S&P 500 during the three downturns over the last decade. (Click here to access free, interactive tools to analyze these ideas.)
1. Arch Capital Group (Nasdaq: ACGL  ) : Provides insurance and reinsurance products worldwide. Between Oct. 1, 2007 and March 2, 2009: Price changed from $25.16 to $17.52, a price return of -30.37% (alpha of 24.33%). Between April 19, 2010 to June 28, 2010: Price changed from $25.29 to $25.47, a price return of 0.71% (alpha of 10.98%). Between July 18, 2011 and Sept. 18, 2011: Price changed from $32.32 to $33.65, a price return of 4.12% (alpha of 10.97%). [Average Alpha: 15.43%] Levered free cash flow at $527.50M vs. enterprise value at $4.15B (implies an LFCF/EV ratio at 12.71%).
2. Mea dowbrook Insurance Group (NYSE: MIG  ) : Operates as a specialty commercial insurance underwriter and insurance administration services company in the United States. Between Oct. 1, 2007 and March2, 2009: Price changed from $8.72 to $5.58, a price return of -36.01% (alpha of 18.69%). Between April 19, 2010 to June 28, 2010: Price changed from $7.97 to $8.77, a price return of 10.04% (alpha of 20.3%). Between July 18, 2011 and Sept. 18, 2011: Price changed from $9.49 to $9.51, a price return of 0.21% (alpha of 7.06%). [Average Alpha: 15.35%] Levered free cash flow at $53.57M vs. enterprise value at $527.85M (implies an LFCF/EV ratio at 10.15%).
3. Synopsys (Nasdaq: SNPS  ) : Provides technology solutions used to develop electronics and electronic systems worldwide. Between Oct. 1, 2007 and March 2, 2009: Price changed from $27.47 to $17.94, a price return of -34.69% (alpha of 20.01%). Between April 19, 2010 to June 28, 2010: Price changed from $23.03 to $21.96, a price return of -4.65% (alpha of 5.62%). Between July 18, 2011 and Sept. 18, 2011: Price changed from $24.15 to $25.99, a price return of 7.62% (alpha of 14.47%). [Average Alpha: 13.37%] Levered free cash flow at $294.70M vs. enterprise value at $2.56B (implies an LFCF/EV ratio at 11.51%).
4. MKS Instruments (Nasdaq: MKSI  ) : Provides instruments, subsystems, and process control solutions that measure, control, power, monitor, and analyze parameters of manufacturing processes worldwide. Between Oct. 1, 2007 and March 2, 2009: Price changed from $19.35 to $11.75, a price return of -39.28% (alpha of 15.42%). Between April 19, 2010 to June 28, 2010: Price changed from $20.7 to $20.26, a price return of -2.13% (alpha of 8.14%). Between July 18, 2011 and Sept. 18, 2011: Price changed from $24.86 to $24.65, a price return of -0.84% (alpha of 6.01%). [Average Alpha: 9.86%] Levered fr! ee cash flow at $128.07M vs. enterprise value at $707.26M (implies an LFCF/EV ratio at 18.11%).
5. Fresh Del Monte Produce (NYSE: FDP  ) : Produces, transports, sources, markets, and distributes fresh and fresh-cut fruit and vegetables worldwide. Between Oct. 1, 2007 and March 2, 2009: Price changed from $28.97 to $17.88, a price return of -38.28% (alpha of 16.42%). Between April 19, 2010 to June 28, 2010: Price changed from $20.89 to $20.84, a price return of -0.24% (alpha of 10.03%). Between July 18, 2011 and Sept. 18, 2011: Price changed from $26.19 to $23.8, a price return of -9.13% (alpha of -2.28%). [Average Alpha: 8.06%] Levered free cash flow at $167.94M vs. enterprise value at $1.43B (implies an LFCF/EV ratio at 11.74%).
Interactive chart: Press Play to compare changes in analyst ratings over the last two years for the stocks mentioned above. Analyst ratings sourced from Zacks Investment Research.

Wall Street Too Lazy To Sleep

2012-01-31T16:34:00.000-08:00

Stocks poised themselves for a higher opening Thursday, but it may be that Wall Street simply has gotten too indifferent to care about the recent selloff.
Stocks have fallen in four straight sessions, but only one of them amounted to anything of any consequence. Aside from Tuesday’s 20-point selloff by the S&P 500 Index(SPX), Wall Street has behaved much the way it did Wednesday, when the index hugged the flatline for most of the session before finishing just 3 points lower on the close.
Futures suggest an eight-point improvement from the open, which would push the S&P back above the 1000-point mark, a level that has manifested a bit of psychological – if not actually technical – resistance.
On the other hand, the market has been – and can be expected to continue – battling a host of headwinds: Sluggish trading, owing to seasonal factors. An uptick in risk aversion. A speculative bubble forming that’s formed in some financials. And a rise in the kind of momentum moves in individual issues that smacks of day traders with no real commitment to fundamentals.
The one thing that has been working the bulls’ corner has been the economic data. This week’s reading on industrial trends showed the manufacturing sector of the domestic economy improved for the first time since the recession started. Wednesday’s release of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting suggested the central bank had evidenced increased confidence the recession has ended.
The stumbling block could be the consumer, especially as an iteration of the labor market. Friday brings the release of the monthly nonfarm payrolls report, expected to show that job losses persisted in August, but at a slower pace than in prior months; the forecast calls for a decline of 233,000 jobs, versus a loss of 247,000 in July.
The weekly unemployment claims reading came in just about where expected, showing 566,000 people without jobs filed claims for t! he week, down from 570,000 the prior week.
Monthly same-store sales figures from retailers can be expected to show the reticence of consumers amid the persistent weakness in the labor markets.
Furthering the bearish case, risk aversion has percolated over the course of the week’s action. Treasuries have risen in price for much of this week, although they have retreated a bit Thursday on some profit-taking. The decline in risk appetite has manifested itself more dramatically in the gold market, a conventional safe-haven for the inflation bugs. Gold prices broke out Wednesday, and continued to rally Thursday.
The session’s equity action has a constructive look on the open, but there’s a real chance that, with dwindling trading levels in the last week of the summer season, investors could opt to book some profits on any improvement, and think about answering the call of the open road.

Oracle Flies Past Targets & Taking Share (ORCL, SAP, IBM)

2012-01-30T22:03:00.000-08:00

Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) just posted earnings. Its GAAP EPS was $0.25 but non-GAAP was $0.31 EPS on revenues of $5.3 Billion. First Call had estimates at $0.27 non-GAAP EPS on revenues of $5.04 Billion. Look at these metrics individually:

software license revenues up 35%, the strongest growth of any quarter in ten years,
software license sales up 38%
applications new license sales grew 63% compared to SAP’s new license sales growth rate of 15%

QUOTES FROM OFFICERS:

Charles Phillips, president, said, "We like our growth strategy of expanding beyond ERP into high-end industry specific vertical software in contrast to SAP’s strategy of moving down market to sell ERP systems to small companies."
CEO Larry Ellison said, "Our database and middleware new license sales grew 28% in Q2. We continue to take market share from IBM in both product categories."

While the earnings guidance is not yet out, this last quarter was a phenomenal report and it is really hard to call anything bad so far. When it offers guidance, First call has next quarter’s estimates at $0.29 EPS and $5.19 Billion in revenues and it has fiscal May 2008 shows estimates at $1.22 EPS on almost $21.5 Billion.
Oracle’s stock closed down 2.3% at $20.76 today, and shares are at $21.70 in after-hours trading. The 52-week trading range is $15.97 to $23.00.
Jon C. Ogg
December 19, 2007
Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he produces the SPECIAL SITUATION newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

The Global Debt Bubble Damns 2012

2012-01-30T14:12:00.000-08:00

The curse of too much debt is playing havoc? with the presidential political campaign, with the threat of sovereign defaults in Europe, and with the strained financial condition of banks in Europe, the US, China, and causing a steep decline in takeover and merger activity here is the U.S.
Nations, banks and corporations are late in tackling? this problem for the reason it means deleveraging, less takeover activity, the need to pay off debt with more newer debt– and the absolute mandatory austerity, ie less growth, lower stock prices, higher unemployment all? this implies.
Example; JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said publicly that JPM has $15 billion in lines of credit to Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain, and could under bad circumstances, lose $5 billion of that, a sum that seemed not to shake Dimon.
Example: It has been reported that BankAmerica would like to shift tens of trillions in derivative contracts from the books of its subsidiary, Merrill Lynch & Co, to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, so as to avoid the threat to its balance sheet from the possibility not being able to collect on these contracts. No one is confirming this need to pass off huge derivative liabilities? to the federal government.
Debt stands at the summit of the debate over what kind of capitalistic system we want. Because money cost near to nothing, deals were being done in 2006 that were bound to create huge nonperforming loans, losses for pension funds, a black eye for Wall Street– and a huge issue of the coming campaign about the money-making tactics of Republican candidate Mitt Romney.
This should trigger a rigorous debate about Wall Street’s role in the US economy– and its monied influence on the lawmakers in Washington.
Hardly anyone noticed a frank blunt speech by Carlyle founder David Rubenstein in Debai on October 15, 2008– at the very apex of the meltdown that threatened stability of gthe financial system. I wrote abo! ut it th en– and want to repeat its findings as a warning signal just as Carlyle is going to issue its shares publicly.
Credit the brainy Rubenstein for outing the rates of leverage in the financial system. Take Private Equity– the Mitt Romney issue– where most firms were dangerously borrowing $6.20 for every $1.00 in equity capital they had invested in a deal. That’s a? ratio of debt to equity of 6 to 1– meaning that if any deal lost more than 17% in value it was in effect insolvent and unless it sold assets could not pay its debt, or for that matter raise more.
Hedge funds in the fall of 2008, were borrowing on average about $ $4.00 in debt for every $1.00 in equity. The European banks like Deutsche Bank, UBS and Barclays were leveraged up 7 to 10 times more than the Private Equity Crowd– and the American investment banks were basically insolvent with debt to equity in some cases 6-7 times more than Carlyle and Blackstone. While Private Equity might have single transactions file for bankruptcy, entire banks like Lehman had to file for bankruptcy– and Merrill Lynch, Wachovia would have done so without shotgun marriages– and Citigroup and BankAmeriuca would have followed suit without federal bailouts.
Today, the stigma is in Europe. The Greek Prime Minister warned yesterday that $1 trillion? Euros must be refinanced in Europe by the end of March– and that hedge funds owned some 25% of Greece’s debt. Expect the fallout from too much debt everywhere to colr market action and part of gthe public debate about t he future of Capitalism.

Looking for a Fixer-Upper? Try Home Center Stocks

2012-01-30T02:30:00.000-08:00

This is not the best of times to be in retail in general, or home-related retail in particular, but it may be the moment for investors to look at hardware store stocks.
Let's look at the hardware big boxes, where there is plenty of room for improvement in the market. Just in mid-November, Home Depot CEO Frank Blake was telling analysts: "Inventories remain high, pricing is under pressure and credit is still difficult."
That pretty much sums it all up for hardware stores. All the plastic, copper, and lumber you need for pipes, wiring, and two-by-fours is having commodity price pressures. And that means margin pressure. At the same time, the hardware chains are having to invest in improving store facilities after taking costs out to balance their books earlier in the recession.
Neither Home Depot (NYSE: HD ) nor Lowe's (NYSE: LOW ) is baking a housing recovery into its 2012 estimates, so if housing were to surprise even slightly on the upside, the effect on their stocks could be noticeable.
Housing: still in the doghouse
The biggest snag for home center chains has been simply that the housing slump has lasted longer than expected, leaving them no room for error. At first, they cut costs and moved focus from selling to construction pros to pushing moderately priced stuff such as paint and flooring to DIY homeowners fixing the homes they couldn't sell.
But by the end of 2011, they had made real structural changes, closing stores and investing in technology to make store operations more efficient. That meant higher capital expense at a time when inventory costs were also under pressure.
In Lowe's case, it added a fair amount of expenses as part of its latest restructuring, which included overhauling inventory and closing stores. The latest move was buying online retailer ATG at the end of the year. Like many retailers, Lowe's needed a ha! ndle on e-commerce and decided to buy instead of build.
However, there is good news as well. COO Robert Hull indicated Lowe's is expected to crank out about $2.1 billion in free cash flow during the next fiscal year. Lowe's managers also said they've laid out a five-year plan to get them to 2015 with no expectation of a "frothy housing market."
Lowe's is where Home Depot was a couple of years ago, trying to fix stores and boost sales, and its stock has been driven down by those issues, which gives it a bit more upside potential. Fool Austin Smith likes Lowe's over Home Depot as a better shareholder value for buying back far more of its shares.
And Home Depot has burned through quite a bit of upside potential already. It was one of the best performers in the Dow in 2011, as The Fool pointed out recently. It hit its 52-week high recently, and as fellow Fool Dan Caplinger mentioned, it's expensive and investing in it requires faith in the housing recovery, so the short-term upside is slim.
But Home Depot has been paying dividends regularly and accelerated its share repurchase plan last year. If you're a value investor, there are worse places to be in retail than a sector leader who pays regular dividends.
It's up to you whether you want to back the favorite or the scrappy upstart. But keep in mind, the U.S. is not Japan -- retail is not facing a lost decade. Housing and consumer spending will pick up, because Americans are shoppers and homeowners by nature. Saturday morning at the hardware store is not a ritual in danger of extinction.
So if you are hoping for a real retail recovery, invest in Home Depot, Lowe's, or even Orchard Supply Hardware -- these days, it beats putting your money on stocks of clothing chains or bookstores -- but keep a long horizon.
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Will Nordic American Tankers Whiff on Revenues Next Quarter?

2012-01-30T01:38:00.000-08:00

There's no foolproof way to know the future for Nordic American Tankers (NYSE: NAT ) or any other company. However, certain clues may help you see potential stumbles before they happen -- and before your stock craters as a result.
A cloudy crystal ball
In this series, we use accounts receivable and days sales outstanding to judge a company's current health and future prospects. It's an important step in separating the pretenders from the market's best stocks. Alone, AR -- the amount of money owed the company -- and DSO -- the number of days' worth of sales owed to the company -- don't tell you much. However, by considering the trends in AR and DSO, you can sometimes get a window onto the future.
Sometimes, problems with AR or DSO simply indicate a change in the business (like an acquisition), or lax collections. However, AR that grows more quickly than revenue, or ballooning DSO, can also suggest a desperate company that's trying to boost sales by giving its customers overly generous payment terms. Alternately, it can indicate that the company sprinted to book a load of sales at the end of the quarter, like used-car dealers on the 29th of the month. (Sometimes, companies do both.)
Why might an upstanding firm like Nordic American Tankers do this? For the same reason any other company might: to make the numbers. Investors don't like revenue shortfalls, and employees don't like reporting them to their superiors.
Is Nordic American Tankers sending any potential warning signs? Take a look at the chart below, which plots revenue growth against AR growth, and DSO:

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. FQ = fiscal quarter.

The standard way to calculate DSO uses average accounts receivable. I prefer to ! look at end-of-quarter receivables, but I've plotted both above.
Watching the trends
When that red line (AR growth) crosses above the green line (revenue growth), I know I need to consult the filings. Similarly, a spike in the blue bars indicates a trend worth worrying about. Nordic American Tankers' latest average DSO stands at 102.5 days, and the end-of-quarter figure is 117.3 days. Differences in business models can generate variations in DSO, and business needs can require occasional fluctuations, but all things being equal, I like to see this figure stay steady. So, let's get back to our original question: Based on DSO and sales, does Nordic American Tankers look like it might miss it numbers in the next quarter or two?
Investors should watch the top line carefully during the next quarter or two. For the last fully reported fiscal quarter, Nordic American Tankers' year-over-year revenue shrank 56%, and its AR grew 9.8%. That's a yellow flag. End-of-quarter DSO increased 149.3% over the prior-year quarter. It was up 186.6% versus the prior quarter. That demands a good explanation. Still, I'm no fortuneteller, and these are just numbers. Investors putting their money on the line always need to dig into the filings for the root causes and draw their own conclusions.
What now?
I use this kind of analysis to figure out which investments I need to watch more closely as I hunt the market's best returns. However, some investors actively seek out companies on the wrong side of AR trends in order to sell them short, profiting when they eventually fall. Which way would you play this one? Let us know in the comments below, or keep up with the stocks mentioned in this article by tracking them in our free watchlist service, My Watchlist.

Add Nordic American Tankers to My Watchlist.

Why Are Atheists So Obsessed With God?

2012-01-29T15:46:00.000-08:00

Michele Bachmann raised eyebrows again last weekend when she claimed that Hurricane Irene was God's way of sending a message to American politicians to listen to the American people. Although the allegation that God would kill Americans in order to get politicians to listen to those same Americans is strange enough (wouldn't he kill the politicians themselves or their first born sons, not the people whose voices he wished to be heard?), many were amused by the thought that one of the leading presidential candidates believes that God causes natural disasters in a show of support for her policies. Others agreed with her and one group in particular was pulling its hair out after hearing Bachmann's latest sound bite.
Atheists complain that religion is irrational, has no basis in fact and shouldn't play a part in national politics. Still, it's odd that they will condemn politicians like Bachmann for bringing God into a political discussion, yet they throw their support behind leaders like President Barack Obama, a Christian who says that he is opposed to gay marriage because "God is in the mix". (A weak attempt at making his Christianity sound cool). Hmm, Michele Bachmann is crazy for thinking that there is a God who backs her political agenda but President Obama is just fine even though he's against letting consenting adults who love each other marry because the same God says no?
Why is it that so many atheists who feel that anyone who believes in God is delusional and should seek help support leaders like President Obama? If believing in God is a sign of mental illness, would you really want a man who is suffering from this delusion to have a nuclear arsenal at his disposal?
One reason is that, like many Republicans, they don't really believe that Obama is a Christian. Not surprising, considering that this is the man who said that guns and God were something for bitter, small town Americans to fall back on when he said that "they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy t! o people who aren't like them."
It never ceases to amaze me that besides religious fundamentalists it's the people who don't believe in God who want to push their religious views in your face the most. Of all the Christians, Muslims, Buddhists, Jews and agnostics that I personally know, none of them seem interested in making me accept their personal beliefs. Just as important, none of them go out of their way to insult members of other religious faiths. Most of them seem to believe that whatever faith you belong to is a personal choice and that if it brings comfort without harming others, than any religion can play a positive role in one's life.
However, it's always the atheists that seem to feel a need to insult others who don't share their views. I don't know if they realize it but when mocking anyone who happens to believe in God (they're criticism is usually aimed at Christians because criticizing other religions too much might mark them as racists or close-minded) atheists often sound much like the people they claim to despise the most: religious fundamentalists. Claiming that anyone who doesn't share your beliefs is misguided, delusional or just plain wrong is a tactic used by fundamentalists of every religion.
When they get on their soapbox, atheists don't sound much different than the Westboro Baptist Church members who enjoy protesting at the funerals of fallen soldiers, shouting insults about God's wraith at the people who are trying to comfort each other while mourning the loss of a loved one. An example of this is my fellow writer at Benzinga who thinks that anyone who believes in God is crazy. Another funny thing is that if you get away from talk of religion and ask them about the people they admire, most atheists will name many people of great faith such as Mohandas (Mahatma) Gandhi and Martin Luther King Jr.
While I understand the frustration caused by hearing a politician like Michele Bachmann claiming that a deadly natural disaster like Hurricane Irene is also a message f! rom God that just happens to be right in line with her own political opinions, there's no need to insult every member of every religious faith because of the words uttered by one headline seeking politician.

Has This Company's Luck Turned?

2012-01-29T13:49:00.000-08:00

The following video is part of our "Motley Fool Conversations" series in which consumer goods editor and analyst Austin Smith and industrials editor and analyst Brendan Byrnes discuss topics across the investing world.
Boeing (NYSE: BA ) was on an order hot streak in 2011, with a multibillion-dollar order seemingly every month. But Boeing's issue has never been securing the orders, but rather building and delivering the planes in a reasonable amount of time. To that end, Boeing recently announced that it will not hit its delivery goal for the year. How much does this hurt the aerospace giant, and what does it mean going forward?

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EXOU Exousia Continues Supplier Relationship with China United Engineering Corporation(DrStockPick.com News Report!)

2012-01-29T09:36:00.000-08:00

EXOU, Exousia Advanced Materials Inc, EXOU.OB
DrStockPick News Report!

Dr Stock Pick HOT News & Alerts!

Exousia Continues Supplier Relationship with China United Engineering Corporation

Thursday August 13, 2009
DrStockPick News Report!
Exousia Continues Supplier Relationship with China United Engineering Corporation
Fifth Order Represents CUC’s Continued Confidence in Exousia as a Supplier
SUGAR LAND, Texas /CRWENEWSwire/ Exousia Advanced Materials, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: EXOU), a company that manufactures advanced industrial coatings for worldwide infrastructure applications and engineered composites for eco-friendly wood substitutes, proudly announces its fifth order from China United Engineering Corporation (CUC) for industrial coatings. Exousia Chairman & CEO, J. Wayne Rodrigue, explained, “The significance of this order is that it represents the ongoing cycle of business that Exousia is striving to achieve. Every day, we gain momentum as our order flow increases at our now established plant in China.”
CUC is a large-scale engineering, design, and construction enterprise headquartered in Hangzhou, China. CUC engages in numerous project categories including general contracting, infrastructure and industrial projects. “We look forward to expanding our relationship with CUC and to Exousia’s future growth throughout China,” conclud! ed Mr. R odrigue.
About China United Engineering Corporation
China United Engineering Corporation (CUC) is a large-scale scientific and technological enterprise headquartered in Hangzhou in China’s central region. CUC engages in numerous project categories including general contracting, infrastructure and industrial projects. More information on CUC can be found at http://en.chinacuc.com.
About Exousia Advanced Materials, Inc.
Exousia manufactures advanced resins, engineered particles, high-performance coatings and structural products. Exousia products enhance strength, durability, cost effectiveness and performance for a wide range of manufacturing, commercial and construction applications. The Company serves both domestic and international markets. Additional information on Exousia can be found at http://www.exousiacorp.com.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Statements released by Exousia Advanced Materials, Inc. that are not purely historical are forward-looking within the meaning of the “Safe Harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding the company’s expectations, hopes, intentions, and strategies for the future. Investors are cautioned that forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainties that may affect the company’s business prospects and performance. The company’s actual results could differ materially from those in such forward-looking statements. Risk factors include but are not limited to general economic, competitive, governmental and technological factors as discussed in the company’s filings with the SEC on Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K. The company does not undertake any responsibility to update the forward-looking statements contained in this release.
Source: Exousia Advanced Materials, Inc.

Keep a close eye on EXOU today, do your homework, and like always BE READY for the ACTION!

Duke Energy Corporation posted a Year Record Price - NYSE:DUK

2012-01-29T06:59:00.000-08:00

Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE:DUK) achieved its new price of $20.89 where it was opened at $20.95 up 0.37 points or +1.81% by closing at $20.86. DUK transacted shares during the day were over 10.20 million shares however it has an average volume of 14.63 million shares.
DUK has a market capitalization $47.80 billion and an enterprise value at $45.53 billion. Trailing twelve months price to sales ratio of the stock was 1.91 while price to book ratio in most recent quarter was 1.20. In profitability ratios, net profit margin in past twelve months appeared at 12.89% whereas operating profit margin for the same period at 20.61%.
The company made a return on asset of 3.11% in past twelve months and return on equity of 8.21% for similar period. In the period of trailing 12 months it generated revenue amounted to $14.31 billion gaining $10.76 revenue per share. Its year over year, quarterly growth of revenue was 0.50% holding -29.60% quarterly earnings growth.
According to preceding quarter balance sheet results, the company had $2.18 billion cash in hand making cash per share at 1.64. The total of $20.11 billion debt was there putting a total debt to equity ratio 87.83. Moreover its current ratio according to same quarter results was 1.23 and book value per share was 17.11.
Looking at the trading information, the stock price history displayed that its S&P500 52 Week Change illustrated 1.19% where the stock current price exhibited up beat from its 50 day moving average price $20.46 and remained above from its 200 Day Moving Average price $19.30.
DUK holds 1.33 billion outstanding shares with 1.33 billion floating shares where insider possessed 0.25% and institutions kept 47.70%.

Searing Heat for Sears Stock (SHLD)

2012-01-29T00:45:00.000-08:00

I recently wrote that consumer behavior was changing dramatically in the face of rising oil prices. Demand is down and interest in smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles is growing. The great thing about capitalism is that if we fail to change our ways, markets will do it for us. What is just beginning to happen with oil and consumer behavior is happening on the corporate level dealing with a slowing economy.
That is to say, competition for a share of the consumer dollar is fiercer than at any other time in recent history. Corporations that adapt to the new field of play will survive. Those that don’t won’t.

Let’s take a look at stock pick Walmart (WMT). For most of the new millennium, WMT was getting taken to the cleaners by sleek rival Target (TGT).
Seen mostly as a bargain bin basement with little knack for style, WMT had trouble prying extra dollars away from the consumer. TGT had little trouble increasing dollars spent at its stores as they focused on luxury brands and style at low prices.
That worked great in an expanding economy, but what happens when that growth disappears? (For more on Target’s recent share decline you’ll want to read, “Why are Target Shares Off Target?”)
We are seeing the results before our very eyes. All of a sudden that bargain basement doesn’t look so bad with oil prices hitting $135 per barrel!
In fact, the ChangeWave Alliance has been showing tremendous strength for both Wal-Mart and Cosco since late February. For more details, check out Paul Carton’s recent article, “World Takeover By Wal-Mart and Costco (COST).”
Behavior is changing, and that change is benefiting WMT as they remain focused on pushing lower pr! ices to its consumers.
Target is not faring as well. Those little extra spending sprees by its customers are no longer the norm and as a result TGT results have been less than stellar. TGT will have to find a new formula that will work given the current and expected conditions moving forward.
With the game still being played, it will be interesting to see how things pan out for both companies.
One company that is not faring so well in the current environment is… Sears Holding (SHLD). The star child of private equity guru, Eddie Lampert, SHLD has not fared well with the collapse in economic activity. Highly leveraged to the homebuilding cycle, sales of its large consumer items like dishwashers, refrigerators and laundry machines dropped hard as new home sales fell.
As a result of the slowing sales, shares of SHLD have lost more than $100 per share in just the last year alone. What had been a former high flyer enjoying the benefits of monetizing real estate holdings is now simply a retail stock playing in a very difficult field under very difficult circumstances.
Does Eddie Lampert have it in him to change behavior in a way that generates positive results for shareholders? I’m not so sure. While Mr. Lampert has the skills as a financier, does he have what it takes to adapt to intense competition?
I would be worried if I were a SHLD shareholder. Just today, the company announced that it had lost $56 million in the first quarter coming fall short of Wall Street estimates. Sales dropped 6% as the company blamed higher fuel and food costs for its woes.
The blame game is a natural reaction, but I think SHLD needs to look hard in the mirror. There are retailers that are adapting well to the current environment and even those that may have had trouble in the early stages adjusting strat! egy in a way that is already showing results.
That is not happening at Sears.
Where we go from here is anyone’s guess. I can give Lampert a free pass in the short term, but there needs to be a plan for going forward.
The bottom line: will the company better manage inventories improving its mix of products to enhance sales even in this difficult market? If they do, SHLD will bounce back big. If not, it will be more pain for shareholders.
One market that is still growing and growing fast is China. And more importantly, competition is not nearly as fierce as it is in the United States. Check out Robert Hsu’s China Strategy letter for the companies that can be expected to prosper in that environment.
Jamie Dlugosch
Executive Editor, InvestorPlace

Join China Strategy risk-free today, and Robert Hsu bring you the latest news and developments from China. He’ll tell you how to profit from this extraordinary global opportunity and which companies and industries to avoid. Be among the first to know which companies to buy and when by joining China Strategytoday. Don’t miss out!

The market works back from an opening-bell selloff

2012-01-28T20:51:00.000-08:00

With stocks and most commodities in retreat mode since the S&P 500 hit a 2011 high on April 29, ?the cumulative effect of having stocks fall eight of the 12 days since then has begun to infect investor sentiment.

On Tuesday, the market showed a little more fight than in recent days, but complacency (at best) has become the prominent theme.

The S&P 500 dropped less than a half-point to 1329, while the Nasdaq gained a point to 2783. Those relatively flattish results were more representative of the market than the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which fell 69 points, due largely to the selloff in shares of component (The market works back from an opening-bell selloff)Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), which dropped?more than 7%?after its earnings report late Monday that included a weak forecast.

Volatility still reigned, as a strong dollar and some work European economic data had set U.S. stocks up for an opening-bell selloff, and at one point the S&P 500 dipped below 1320 for the first time since April 20, while oil, gold and silver all started lower.

However, like everything else market-related these days, swings in either direction are prone to do exactly the opposite, and the dollar’s sharp rally took a break, helping commodities recoup their losses.

Not entirely, however — oil, which had dropped as low as $95.02 a barrel, still settled under $97 a barrel, a drop of 0.5%, while gold and silver fell 0.7% and 1.6%, respectively.

While stocks continue to largely be at the mercy of the dollar-commodities complex, the corporate and economic data weren’t particularly inspiring, including dour notes on housing starts, building permits, and a tepid report from (The market works back from an opening-bell selloff)Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) (following one a day earlier from Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW) working as a pesky reminder that the housing market doesn’t seem to offer any short-term sanguinity.

Similarly, the action in bonds, which saw the 10-ye! ar note& #8217;s yield drop to 3.12% (extremely close to its 200-day average), doesn’t exactly dovetail with an optimistic take on what investors expect to gain elsewhere.

On the other hand, stocks did show some fight on an above-average day in trading volume and large-cap financials showed strength, outperforming the market on back-to-back days — a good sign for the bulls.

Given stocks have dropped 2% in a week, a flat-line finish certa

ECB Still Will Boost Rates in September

2012-01-28T19:09:00.000-08:00

Emerging-markets valuations have made an extraordinary V-shaped move in the last six months, yet Brazil still looks almost as cheap as it did back in August.

Believe it or not, a big Brazil fund such as EWZ (NYSE:EWZ) has rebounded only about 6% since late August, when the Bovespa had been pounded to a forward P/E of 8.3.

As a result, the improvement in tone has barely brought EWZ back to a P/E of 9 — still far enough below the broad MSCI Emerging Markets valuation of 10 to tempt traders back to this healing-but-still-bruised market.

The question is, can those forward-looking earnings forecasts be trusted?

A slowing global economy will naturally drive analysts to downgrade their Brazilian earnings models to reflect reduced appetite in Asia for iron ore and pulp — China alone accounts for 15% of Brazil s exports.

The answer is to focus on stocks that are less exposed to China. So skip Vale (NYSE:VALE), the second-biggest company on the Bovespa and the largest miner of iron ore in the world. Besides, Vale s mines have been washed out by heavy rain, forcing it to leave 2 million tons of ore contracts unfilled.

We know China is still buying plenty of oil, though, which makes Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) a natural place to start looking. PBR is huge, but it s definitely on an upward trend — up 20% year to date and just cracking the 200-day resistance line in the last few days.

If we hold this line, there’s plenty of room for upside. Before collapsing in the August sell-off, PBR was moving in a comfortable range of $30 to $45 over the last few years.

To get back on that footing again, PBR will need to rally an additional 17%. Meanwhile, the stock is on the cheap side, with a P/E of 8.85, and even with its massive petroleum reserves, it s still priced at maybe 1.05 times book value.

PBR also stands to benefit from the ongoing shif! t in ins titutional portfolios, which were very underweight this stock for a long time. It takes a lot of buying to shift the needle here — we re talking about the fourth-biggest stock in the world — but the needle is definitely moving back in the right direction.

On the domestic side, banks are also relatively immune to the shifting export cycle and are best-positioned to benefit from the local central bank s recent efforts to relax some of the highest inflation-adjusted interest rates in the emerging world.

Still, Brazil seems to have won at least a temporary victory against inflation. The job market is tight, and despite the occasional problem for a fringe lender, credit quality is improving.

With conditions like these to work with, Banco Bradesco (NYSE:BBD) is probably our favorite name in the sector. BBD has it all: improving loan margins, net interest margins and a PEG ratio of just 0.50.

While the P/E is a little rich at north of 10, it still fails to reflect the true value of BBD s loan portfolio. Price to book is all the way down at 0.33.

Compare BBD with Itau Unibanco (NYSE:ITUB) and the choice is clear on just about every measure. ITUB is more richly valued, with a P/E of 11+, trades at 2.45 times book value and a PEG of 1 and even has much worse credit quality than its rival.

So why buy ITUB when you can get BBD? We have yet to hear a good answer.

On last note: Watch the Brazilian real for your next hints on where the Bovespa is headed. The real was one of the worst-performing currencies last year, printing a 10.5% decline against the dollar. But in the last three weeks, it has shaped up as one of the fastest-appreciating currencies in the world.

Institutional traders need to buy reais before they buy Brazilian stocks. If that s what s going on here, the long-looked-for rally could be on the way.

5 prolific Mercedes cars from years gone by

2012-01-28T14:50:00.000-08:00

The Mercedes-Benz SSK. The name means Super Sport Kurz, or “Super Sport Short” in German, the model, which was built between 1928 and 1932, was capable of extreme performance, which it realised when it won numerous competitions. At the time, it was one of the most highly regarded sports cars although it was a wheelbase of an early Mercedes-Benz S.
The Mercedes-Benz W125 Rekordwagen was produced in the tail end of the 1930s derived from a recent car at the time. The significant difference was the engine as the Grand Prix race car had a lower engine, a V12, which was able to reduce drag.
The Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren. This was a collaboration between Mercedes-Benz and McLaren Automotive. The grand tourer was built in England, more specifically Woking, Surrey and Portsmouth. Mercedes-Benz owned almost half of the McLaren Group at the time. The car sold between the years 2003 and 2009. Some commentators said they classed it as a GT.
The Mercedes-Benz S-Class. This series of luxury sedans was a introduced, along with the W116 S-Class in 1972. It continued on from former models who go a long way back, to the mid 1950s. The S-Class is Mercedes-Benz’s flagship and has introduced many of the brand’s technologies such as drivetrain technologies.
The Mercedes-Benz M-Class. This sporty, utility SUV was brought to the market in 1997. However, it was officially listed a 1998 model. Its success didn’t occur overnight but it eventually proved successful in the Us and Mexican markets. With regards to its size it is larger tan a GLK lass but smaller than a GL-Class, a model with a platform that it shares. At one point, it was also being built in Austria, with an eye on he European market. This was before it moved to a part of the US market.

Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) Closes 2.73% Higher

2012-01-28T11:28:00.000-08:00

Shares of Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) jumped more than 3% in today's trading. The stock reached a high of $89.26 in trading, and closed 2.73% higher at $88.12. Volume was up from daily average of 1.01 million to 5.58 million.
Earlier today, Polo Ralph Lauren reported its fourth quarter and fiscal 2010 results. The company reported fourth-quarter net income of $114 million, or $1.13 per share, up from $45 million, or $0.44 per share reported in the fourth quarter of previous year. For fiscal 2010, the company reported net income of $480 million, or $4.73 per share, up from $406 million, or $4.01 per share reported in fiscal 2009. Revenue increased 9% to $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter. For the full fiscal year, revenue fell 1% to $5 billion. The decline has been mainly due to lower global wholesale shipment volumes. In the fourth quarter the company opened three directly operated freestanding stores, while it closed two directly operated freestanding stores. It also took over 16 freestanding stores and 75 concession shop locations in Asia.
Commenting on the results, Ralph Lauren, the company's chairman and CEO, said that in fiscal 2010, the company saw tremendous growth????????? and progress. Lauren said that the successful takeover Asian operations, development of accessories products and opening of several luxury stores were the highlights of fiscal 2010. With more than $1.2 billion in cash and investments on its balance sheet, the company is planning to accelerate investments in growth initiatives during fiscal 2011.
But where will this growth come from? The U.S. market is only just recovering. Consumer spending, the backbone of the U.S. economy, is seeing a rebound. But, it is still way below the pre-crisis levels. Europe is even worse. With all the troubles that the continent has been growing through, it looks like a recovery is a long way off. This leaves the company with just the Asian markets. In fiscal 2010, the company took contro! l of the Asian operations and this gives a signal that it is ready to focus more on these markets. This is a step in the right direction.
The stock has seen a lot of price fluctuations in the past year. It has a 52-week range of $48.07-$95.59. The stock has a beta of 1.60. Currently, the stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
About BeaconEquity.com
BeaconEquity.com is committed to producing the highest-quality insight and analysis of small cap stocks, emerging technology stocks,hot penny stocks and helping investors make informed decisions. Our focus is primarily on the underserved OTC stocks market, or "penny stock" market, which has traditionally been shunned by Wall Street. We have particular expertise with renewable energy stocks, biotech stocks, oil stocks, green energy stocks and internet stocks. There are many hot penny stock opportunities present in the OTC market everyday and we seek to exploit these hot stock gains for our members before the average daytrader is aware of them.

Is FLIR's Stock Expensive by the Numbers?

2012-01-28T05:13:00.000-08:00

Numbers can lie -- but they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:

The current price multiples.
The consistency of past earnings and cash flow.
How much growth we can expect.

Let's see what those numbers can tell us about how expensive or cheap FLIR Systems (Nasdaq: FLIR ) might be.
We'll look at the numbers against some competitors and industry mates: L-3 Communications Holdings (NYSE: LLL ) , Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT ) , and Honeywell International (NYSE: HON ) .
The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the P/E ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share -- the lower, the better.
Then, we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). Like the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.
Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.
FLIR has a P/E ratio of 18.5 and an EV/FCF ratio of 29.9 over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations to the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, FLIR has a P/E ratio of 19.9 and a five-year EV/FCF ratio of 23.3.
A positive one-year ratio under 10 for both metrics is ideal (at least in my opinion). For a five-year metric, under 20 is ideal.
FLIR ! has a mi xed performance in hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it compares against some competitors and industry mates.?

Company	1-Year P/E	1-Year EV/FCF	5-Year P/E	5-Year EV/FCF
FLIR Systems	18.5	29.9	19.9	23.3
L-3 Communications Holdings	7.1	7.4	7.7	7.7
Lockheed Martin	8.8	11.3	8.9	9.4
Honeywell International	15.7	25.0	18.3	14.5

Source: S&P Capital IQ.

Numerically, we've seen how FLIR's valuation rates on both an absolute and relative basis. Next, let's examine...
The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash flow generation.
In the past five years, FLIR's net income margin has ranged from 13.7% to 20.6%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from 8.2% to 22.2%.
How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:

Source: S&P Capital IQ; margin ranges are combined.

Additionally, over the last five years, FLIR has tallied up five years of positive earnings and five years of positive free cash flow.
Next, let's figure out...
How much growth we can expect
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But while you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared to similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.
Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. In that time period, FLIR has put up past EPS growth rates of 16.5%. Meanwhile, Wall Street's analysts expect future growth rates of 14.8%.
Here's how FLIR compares to its peers for trailing five-year growth:

Source: S&P Capital IQ; EPS growth shown.

And here's how it measures up with regard to the growth analysts expect over the next five years:

Source: S&P Capital IQ; estimates for EPS growth.

The bottom line
The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us the price multiples shares of FLIR?are trading at, the volatility of its operational performance, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.
The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at an 18.5 P/E ratio, and we see that its price multiples are elevated for companies linked to the defense industry. Its multiples are higher than each of its comps.
However, looking at margins and growth over the last five years, FLIR also beats L-3, Lockheed, and Honeywell. On an absolute basis, its margins are quite impressive.
Although FLIR's price multiples ! are expe nsive, its operational numbers could justify them. Our CAPS community rates FLIR four stars out of five despite the uncertainty of defense budgets. But these initial numbers are just a start. If you find FLIR's numbers or story compelling, don't stop. Continue your due diligence process until you're confident one way or the other. As a start, add it to My Watchlist to find all of our Foolish analysis.
I wrote about a stock that's flying under the radar in our brand new free report: "The Stocks Only the Smartest Investors Are Buying." I invite you to take a free copy to find out the name of the company I believe Warren Buffett would be interested in if he could still invest in small companies.

The Fed, The S&P 500, & Why Gold Is Shining Bright

2012-01-28T00:47:00.000-08:00

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around (the banks) will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."
~ Thomas Jefferson ~
Well here we are, caught between resistance in the S&P 500 around the 1,330 area and support around the 1,300 price level. My last two articles have discussed why I was expecting a top in the coming days and weeks ahead, but prices just continued to work higher.
One of the things that I pride myself in as a person who trades and writes about financial markets in public is that I am always honest. If I blow a call I fess up and admit it. When I have made mistakes in the past, I always try to learn something new from them and I discuss losing trades publicly with readers and members of my service.
This time is different. I honestly do not know if I am going to be right or wrong. The price action in the S&P 500 Thursday was certainly bearish short term, but a back test of 1,300 or possibly even 1,280 could give rise to a Phoenix. Granted, the Phoenix is nothing more than Ben Bernanke's pet, but that is a topic for a different time.
I have scanned through my list of indicators which discuss sentiment based on momentum, put/call ratio, the advance/decline line, Bullish Percent Indicators, and several ratio based indicators and they are all SCREAMING that a top is near. The interesting thing about the previous statement is that it would have been true a week ago and mostly true two weeks ago, yet prices have continued to climb.
The daily chart of the S&P 500 Index demonstrates the recent price action that has cont! inued to climb the "Wall of Worry" for several weeks:
S&P 500 Daily Chart
?
The culmination of the massive run higher for the S&P 500 was the dovish comments coming from Ben Bernanke during Wednesday's press release and press conference.
The U.S. & European Central Banks are seemingly in a perpetual race to debase their underlying fiat currencies. The race will not end well. In fact, this type of situation smells like a Ponzi scheme where Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi (ECB President) are the wizards behind the curtains.
Their loose monetary policies and forced reflation are synthetic drugs that juice risk assets higher and ultimately Mr. Market will have his vengeance in due time.
At this point, it seems like Ben Bernanke will do anything to juice equity prices higher. I think his hope is that they will be able to artificially keep the game going until the recovery is on a more sound footing. However, when the entire recovery is predicated on cheap money and liquidity and is not supported by organic economic growth it just prolongs the inevitable disaster.
As an example, the daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is shown below. I would point out that that Dow came within 35 points (0.27%) from testing the 2011 highs. Furthermore, the Thursday high for the Dow was only 1,356 points (10.55%) from reaching the all-time 2007 October high.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily Chart
?
I have argued for quite some time that the economy and the stock market are two different things. If Bernanke and his cronies succeed in reflating the financial markets and the Dow reaches its October 2007 high in the near term, more retail investors will regard equity markets as being rigged.
Who could blame them for viewing financial markets as a giant rigged casino that stands to win while they continue to lose their hard earned capital? We all recognize t! hat the current economy is nowhere near as strong as it was in 2007. But alas, the regular retail investor does not recognize that the stock market and the economy do not portray the same meaning.
One specific underlying catalyst that has gone largely unnoticed by most of the financial media during this sharp run higher in stocks is the total lack of volume associated with the march higher. The NYSE volume over the past 2 months has been putrid when compared to historical norms.
As a trader, I am forced to take risk through a variety of trade structures. However, the idea that a crash could be coming seems hard pressed as long as Big Bad Ben is at the wheel.
If the Russell 2000 drops 10%, I am convinced that Ben will be out making announcements that the Fed stands ready to intervene with all of the supposed tools they have at their disposal. Let's be honest here, they really have one tool comprised of 3 separate functions which are all a mechanism to increase liquidity in the overall system.
To express this liquidity, the following chart from the Federal Reserve shows the M2 money supply levels:
Current M2 Money Supply
?
The 3 functions are the printing of currency, the monetization of U.S. Treasury debt (QE, QE2, QE2.5, Operation Twist), and exceptionally low interest rates (ZIRP) near 0 for an "extended period of time (2014)." Since monetary easing is all that the Federal Reserve has done since the financial crisis began, it begs to reason that the Federal Reserve has no other solutions or tools available. If they did, they seemingly would have used them by now.
The first bubble they created due to loose monetary policy was the massive bubble in oil in 2008. Fast forward to the present, and they are currently supporting another bubble in U.S. Treasury obligations. The bubble that they will create in the future when the game finally ends will be in precious metals. The precious metals bubble will be building while the Federal! Reserve and the U.S. Treasury attempt to keep the Treasury Bond bubble from bursting.
At this point in time, if we continue down this path stocks will not protect investors adequately from inflation should the Treasury bubble burst. I would argue that the central planning and monetary policy we have seen the past few years continues in the United States and Europe that gold, silver, and other precious metals are likely to begin their own bubble of potentially epic proportions.
As the weekly chart of gold futures illustrates below, gold has recently pulled back sharply and has broken out. I will likely be looking for any pullbacks in gold as buying opportunities as long as support holds.
Gold Weekly Chart
?
In closing, for longer term investors the stock market might have some serious short term juice as cheap money and artificially low interest rates should juice returns. However, eventually equities will start to underperform. At that point, gold will be in the final stages of its bubble and the term parabolic could likely be applied.
If central banks around the world continue to print money there are only a few places to hide. Precious metals and other commodities like oil will vastly outperform stocks in the long run if the Dollar continues to slide. The real question we should be asking is who will win the race to debase, Draghi or Bernanke?

ResMed Inc. Earnings: Keeping the Profitability Streak Alive

2012-01-27T15:59:00.000-08:00

ResMed Inc. (NYSE:RMD) reported net income above Wall Street’s expectations for the second quarter. ResMed is a developer, manufacturer and distributor of medical equipment for treating, diagnosing and managing sleep-disordered breathing and other respiratory disorders.
ResMed Earnings Cheat Sheet for the Second Quarter
Results: Net income for ResMed Inc. rose to $62.9 million (42 cents per share) vs. $58.5 million (37 cents per share) in the same quarter a year earlier. This marks a rise of 7.6% from the year earlier quarter.
Revenue: Rose 8.7% to $332.7 million from the year earlier quarter.
Actual vs. Wall St. Expectations: RMD beat the mean analyst estimate of 38 cents per share. It fell short of the average revenue estimate of $339.6 million.
Quoting Management: Peter C. Farrell Ph.D, chairman and chief executive officer, commented, “On a regional basis, revenue in the Americas increased by 12% to $182.5 million over the prior year’s quarter. Revenue outside the Americas was $150.2 million, an increase of 5% over the prior year’s quarter, on both a GAAP and constant currency basis. Our global operating profit for the December quarter was $67.3 million and cash flow from operations was a record $110.6 million, demonstrating excellent operating performance. During the quarter, we also repurchased 4.1 million shares, at a cost of $110.5 million, as part of our ongoing capital management program.”
Key Stats:
Gross margin shrank 1.1 percentage points to 59.7%. The contraction appeared to be driven by increased costs, which rose 11.7% from the year earlier quarter while revenue rose 8.7%.
Revenue has risen the past four quarters. Revenue increased 11.6% to $314.8 million in the first quarter. The figure rose 17.3% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year from the year earlier and climbed 12.4% in the thi! rd quart er of the last fiscal year from the year-ago quarter.
The company topped expectations last quarter after falling short of forecasts in the first quarter with net income of 33 cents versus a mean estimate of net income of 35 cents per share.
The increase in profit last quarter comes after net income fell in the previous quarter. In the first quarter, net income declined 10.9% to $50.5 million.
Looking Forward: Expectations for the company’s next quarter results are lower than they have been. Over the past sixty days, the average estimate for third quarter has fallen from 40 cents per share to 39 cents. In the past month, the average estimate for the fiscal year has fallen from $1.55 per share to $1.54 abs.
Competitors to Watch: Allied Healthcare Product (NASDAQ:AHPI), Masimo Corporation (NASDAQ:MASI), Electromed, Inc. (NASDAQ:ELMD), Medtronic, Inc. (NYSE:MDT), Dynatronics Corporation (NASDAQ:DYNT), Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO), Covidien plc (NYSE:COV), Dehaier Medical Systems Ltd (NASDAQ:DHRM), and CareFusion Corporation (NYSE:CFN).

Woz loves Android, but iPhone is still good for most in 2012

2012-01-27T14:03:00.000-08:00

(gigaom.com) -- My primary phone is the iPhone. I love the beauty of it. But I wish it did all the things my Android does, I really do.
Speaking to Dan Lyons in an article comparing the iPhone to Android devices, Apple co-founder, Steve Wozniak points out the relative limitations of Apple’s iPhone. Woz makes the case made by many smartphone power-users, suggesting the iPhone is still a great device for most people, but with a little effort and understanding, more can be done to an Android phone. Greater customization and user control have always been key selling points for Android devices; both the high-end smartphones and even the low-cost units.

Darden Drops As Olive Garden’s Troubles Continue

2012-01-27T13:51:00.000-08:00

Olive Garden is a simple restaurant concept that has turned into to be a serious problem for Darden Restaurants (DRI), which owns the chain along with others like Red Lobster and LongHorn Steakhouse.
Today, Darden lowered its EPS projection for the second quarter to 41 cents per share, below analysts’ expectations for 54 cents. The company also lowered its sales and profit forecast for 2012; it now expects EPS to grow 4% to 7%, down from 12% to 15% previously. Sales growth is now projected to come in at 6% to 7%, down from 6.5% to 7.7% previously. Shares fell 11% in morning trading.
Olive Garden’s same-restaurant sales have continued to fall, and the chain is expected to post a 2.5% drop for the current quarter. Same-restaurant sales actually fell 5.7% in November, accelerating from a 2.5% drop in October, according to a Darden release.
“At Olive Garden, we’re addressing the erosion in one of the brand’s essential attributes, its value leadership in casual dining,” said Chairman and CEO Clarence Otis. “In working to re-establish that historical value advantage, Olive Garden more strongly emphasized containing check growth this quarter than in prior periods, and that was reflected in its promotion and in-restaurant merchandising tactics. This helped temper the guest count decline for the quarter, but not as much as expected.As a result, there was more earnings pressure than anticipated.”

Favorite Large Bank Picks For Jan-2012

2012-01-27T02:49:00.000-08:00

Yesterday, major regional banks (fourteen in number) sported gains of almost 1.16 percent, collectively. Among these banks, Bank of America's share price gained the least ($0.18), while? M&T Bank Corp's share price gained the most ($3.8).

Share price gains were surprising given that the Federal Reserve proposed steps to strengthen regulation and supervision of large bank holding companies with consolidated assets equal to or greater than $50 billion or those designated to be systemically important. The proposals include risk-based capital and leverage requirements implemented in two phases that would include subjection to the Fed's capital plan rule that requires firms to develop annual capital plans, conduct stress tests, and maintain adequate capital ratios, as well as a proposal issued by the Fed to implement a risk-based capital surcharge based on the framework and methodology developed by the
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Firms would also be subjected to annual stress tests. Credit exposure of a covered financial firm would be limited to a single counterparty as a percentage of the firm's regulatory capital. The Fed noted that it is proposing that firms would need to comply with many of the enhanced standards a year after they are finalized. Requirements related to stress tests would take effect shortly after the rule is finalized.

Compliance with Fed's proposals would not only increase regulatory costs but would also limit strategic options for these banks. So Fed's announcement should have had a negative impact. Yesterday that didn't happen but would surely happen as the market digests the import of Fed's proposals. This should lead to adjustments, positive on some and negative on some other, in the share prices of these fourteen banks. Though I am not giving the workings of the detailed share price impacts, nevertheless I will pick my favorite stocks among these fourteen.

Fifth Third Bancorp? (NASDAQ:FITB)

Fifth Third! 's capit al position is already well in excess of established standards, likely standards, and most peers. Holding company cash is currently sufficient for more than 2 years of obligations. Minimal holding company or bank debt maturities until 2013, so need for new capital at above peer average cost of marginal capital is minimal. Fifth Third has completely exited all crisis-era government support programs and it is one of the few large banks that
have no TLGP-guaranteed debt to refinance in 2012. In addition, it has no direct European sovereign exposure; total exposure to European peripheral borrowers is less than $0.2 billion and gross exposure to European banks less than $0.3 billion.

I expect FITB share to test $15.5 and establish $15 in January 2012.

State Street Corporation? (NYSE:STT)

STT has two powerful platforms for growth namely State Street Global Services ($21.5 trillion in assets under custody and administration), and State Street Global Advisors (1.9 trillion in assets under management). Nearly 78 of its top 100 clients use both asset servicing and asset management and they account for about 35% of total management fee revenue (YTD 2011).

As of end September 2011, STT's tier 1 common ratio was 16 percent,which is significantly higher than 12.5 percent for The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation? (NYSE:BK), and 11.8 percent for Northern Trust Corporation? (NASDAQ:NTRS). Moreover, even under Basel III, STT's tier 1 common ratio was 11.7 percent, which is significantly higher than 6.5 percent for The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE:BK), and 11.8 percent for Northern Trust Corporation (NASDAQ:NTRS).

I expect STT share to test $50 and establish $49 in January 2012.

Other stocks that I think could benefit include SunTrust Banks, Inc.(NYSE:STI), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB), and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM).{$end}

SEC to appeal rejected Citigroup settlement

2012-01-26T20:15:00.000-08:00

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission is appealing a federal judge's decision last month to toss out a proposed $285 million mortgage securities fraud settlement between the agency and Citigroup.
Federal judge Jed Rakoff ruled on Nov. 28 that the deal between the SEC and Citi was "neither fair, nor reasonable, nor adequate, nor in the public interest" and ordered the case to proceed to trial in July 2012.
He said that the settlement announced in October, under which Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) neither admitted nor denied the SEC's allegations, deprived the public "of ever knowing the truth in a matter of obvious public importance."
The SEC argued in a statement Thursday that the ruling "inadvertently harms investors by depriving them of substantial, certain and immediate benefits."
"We believe the court was incorrect in requiring an admission of facts -- or a trial -- as a condition of approving a proposed consent judgment," said the agency. It argued Rakoff's ruling would set a new standard for settlements that would be difficult to reach and that it is at odds with established practice.

Big bank SEC settlements: Toothless face-savers?

"Courts have routinely approved settlements in which a defendant does not admit or even expressly denies liability, exactly because of the benefits that settlements provide," said the agency.
The SEC said the $285 million proposed settlement, "while less than investor losses, represents most of the total monetary recovery that the SEC itself could have sought at trial. An SEC settlement does not limit the ability of injured investors to pursue claims for additional relief."
Rakoff said in his ruling that given the damage done to financial markets by the alleged actions by Citigroup, a greater level of transparency is needed.

JPMorgan pays $153 million to settle mortgage case

"[I]n any case like this that touches on t! he trans parency of financial markets whose gyrations have so depressed our economy and debilitated our lives, there is an overriding public interest in knowing the truth," Rakoff, a U.S. district judge in Manhattan, wrote in his decision.
The SEC's pattern of allowing big banks to reach settlements without admitting or denying wrongdoing, Rakoff added, has been "hallowed by history, but not by reason."
Citigroup did not have an immediate reaction to the SEC's appeal. At the time of Rakoff's ruling, a spokeswoman for the banking giant said it respectfully disagreed with the decision.
"In the event the case is tried, we would present substantial factual and legal defenses to the charges," she added.
The SEC alleged that in 2007, Citi created and sold a mortgage-related collaterialized debt obligation, or CDO, called Class V Funding III.
According to the SEC complaint, one CDO trader characterized the asset group in internal communications as "a collection of dogshit" and "possibly the best short EVER!"
Can Wall Street thrive again?
In marketing materials, however, the assets were described as "attractive investments rigorously selected by an independent investment adviser," Rakoff's decision said.
After marketing the CDO, Citi then took a short position -- or bet against -- the security as the housing market deteriorated, bringing in a net profit of $160 million for the bank. Meanwhile, investors lost more than $700 million.
The SEC has settled a string of similar complaints in recent months, including agreements with Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500).
Rakoff, though, has been a thorn in the agency's side in recent years, rejecting a proposed $33 million settlement in 2009 between the SEC and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) over allegations that BofA lied about bonuses for Merrill Lynch & Co. employees following the firms' merger.
That settlement ! was late r revised upward to $150 million, which Rakoff reluctantly approved, calling it "half-baked justice at its best."
Shares of Citi (C, Fortune 500) closed down 0.5% in trading Thursday.

Buy, Sell or Hold: The Clorox Co. (NYSE:CLX) Is Cleaning Up

2012-01-25T15:49:00.000-08:00

The Clorox Co. (NYSE:CLX) on Thursday reported net earnings of $171 million on sales of $1.52 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 ended June 30, compared to net earnings of $170 million on net sales of $1.5 billion the year prior.

This continued the company's trend of improvement. But more importantly, the bulk of Clorox's profit and margin growth came from its international unit, and the firm projected an expansion in earnings per share of at least 10% to 14% for next fiscal year.

Boring is beautiful when you're dealing with consumer staples, since share prices improve with incremental increases in sales and margins. In Clorox's case, this has meant taking advantage of low rates and dependable cashflow to finance expansion plans. But the good news is that the high financial leverage results in an exorbitant return on equity.

Clorox's strong cashflow affords the company very comfortable debt coverage ratios. Its level of debt to earnings before income tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) has declined in the last three years from 3.3-times to 2.2-times, improving its creditworthiness. Clorox's interest coverage ratio (EBITDA to interest expense) also has improved strongly, to 8.96-times from 6.27-times. This trend has warranted an improvement in the firm's credit rating outlook, which in the investment grade is BBB+ to stable.

There is no question that this is a sound strategy with interest rates so low. A few years from now, as interest rates normalize and the cost of debt goes up, this strategy will be more costly. But, by that time, the company's effort to improve its earnings/debt ratio will have put it in a better position to face higher borrowing costs.

Of course, there's more to Clorox's recent success than shrewd borrowing.

In the past two years the company has set out to recover the slight profit ! margin e rosion brought on by the economic disaster. And in that time, Clorox has recovered much its lost market share through disciplined cost cutting, better pricing power and lower commodity prices. You see, in this business, little differences add up. That means careful marketing, advertising, distribution and cost controls, as well as an optimal financing structure are of paramount importance. And that's precisely where Clorox has excelled.

For example, Clorox is already number two in U.S. market share, behind The Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG). In fact, Clorox is ranked in the top two in almost every one of its key brands. And those brands represent 88% of the company's total portfolio.

While double-digit earnings growth is achievable via growth in both its core U.S. operations and in its international units, do not expect miracles. The likely range for outperformance or underperformance is relatively small at first sight. Yet, the relatively low weight of international sales within the company and a proven capacity for successful and profitable innovation make its objectives achievable. There is some room for upside surprises with both new products and developments in fast-growing emerging economies.

Clorox concentrates some 71% of its international presence in home cleaning and bleach and laundry products in Latin America. And the fact that Asia today represents only 5% of sales is actually a plus, since it leaves lots of room for improvement in the long term. So, we have a superbly managed marketing company, with plenty of room to grow internationally.

This success is the result of a carefully managed process that prioritizes margin and market share expansion, allocating resources based on economic profit. We expect continued margin improvement through the continuation of relentless cost savings initiatives, information technology investment, and innovation. In addition, market s! hare imp rovement will come from the launching of carefully targeted products - the emphasis being in value and superior customer perception.

Health and wellness are key themes that will drive future growth. Clorox has very sophisticated market segmentation, product positioning and overall marketing strategy in these sectors. It is bound to deliver results, based on their proven track record.

Earnings momentum is at its back due to a mix of carefully tested marketing and financial initiatives. The stock is valued at 13-times earnings at a nice discount to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Its Price/Earnings/Growth (PEG) ratio is high at 1.43, though not disqualifying.

We can overpay a little for growth that we are pretty certain lies ahead. And Clorox offers an attractive 3.4% dividend yield. That dividend is easily sustainable at a dividend payout ratio of only 47%. In fact, it was just raised by 10% in May.

Technically, the stock is almost "boringly" bullish. Its 200-day moving average shows a very steady upward slope. At just over $64 a share Clorox is sitting right near its 50-day moving average and in the middle of the Bollinger bands, in an oversold condition. This bodes very well for an entry point.

However, the stock also is approaching the 2007 all-time high, so it should start showing some short-term resistance. So what is the investment proposition?

With this type of stability and high dividend yield, Clorox should be a core holding in any portfolio that is not purely speculative. Rather than sitting in ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds, we can sit on Clorox stock, get paid much more and have the upside of a first-class equity that can actually adjust prices up if inflation becomes a problem.

If we see some resistance here, we could run a short-term covered-call strategy: Buy the stock and sell some out of the money calls on it. The one-month calls we sell lower our entry poi! nt in th e stock by the amount of premium we collect and would probably expire worthless. The traditional risk-minimization strategy is to dollar-cost average into the stock over the next couple of months.

Recommendation: Dollar-cost average into The Clorox Co. (NYSE:CLX) on a weekly basis over the next two months (**).

(**) - Special Note of Disclosure: Horacio Marquez holds no interest in The Clorox Co.

[Editor's Note: Horacio Marquez knows how to make a market call. It was Marquez who told investors that lithium was going to be big - a year before other "experts" made the same call. Now Marquez has isolated the major profit opportunities being created by the possible broadband breakdown - a situation that the news media is only just now starting to understand. To find out all about those top profit opportunities, check out this new report.]

Former SEC Exam Chief Walsh: SEC Whistleblower Program 'Showing Traction'

2012-01-22T05:50:00.000-08:00

The former chief counsel at the Securities and Exchange Commission’s exam division, John Walsh, has formed a Whistleblower Response Team with several of his colleagues at the law firm Sutherland Asbill & Brennan to help firms develop whistleblower response programs as Walsh says the SEC’s “initiative is beginning to show traction.”

Walsh, a 23-year veteran of the SEC where he played a key role in creating the Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations (OCIE), including serving as OCIE’s chief counsel, said in a statement that the SEC’s Whistleblower program, which the agency expanded under Dodd-Frank, is beginning to “see results.”

Walsh cites the November report issued by the SEC detailing the first seven weeks of the Whistleblower program that found that between Aug. 12 and Sept. 30, the SEC received 334 whistleblower tips, an average of nearly 48 per week.

The SEC report notes that the most common complaint categories were market manipulation (16.2%), corporate disclosures and financial statements (15.3%), and offering fraud (15.6%). The commission received whistleblower submissions from individuals in 37 states, as well as from several foreign countries, including China (10) and the United Kingdom (nine).

“Senior SEC officials have stated publically that they are now receiving high-quality information,” Walsh said. “As a result, we believe it is critical that companies receive the most up-to-date information and proper counsel to effectively respond to whistleblower claims as they emerge.”

Other members of Sutherland’s Whistleblower response team are Cynthia Krus, Allegra Lawrence-Hardy, and Holly Smith. The legal team will help clients create effective whistleblower response programs, respond to whistleblower claims, and defend against SEC enforcement actions and civil litigation.

Walsh, the former associate director and chief counsel at OCIE, retired from the agency at the

end of September, and joined Sutherland’s Financial Services Group and Securities Enforcement and Litigation Team in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 1.

In August, the SEC launched a web page that allows individuals to report a violation of the federal securities laws and apply for a financial award. The whistleblower program provides a monetary incentive of between 10% and 30% of sanctions the SEC collects for whistleblowers who voluntarily provide the agency with original information that leads to a successful SEC action with sanctions exceeding $1 million.

While 170 applicable enforcement judgments and orders issued from July 21, 2010 through July 31, 2011 included the imposition of sanctions exceeding the statutory threshold of $1 million, the SEC explained in its report, because the 90-day application period had not passed with respect to any of these actions as of the end of the fiscal year, applications for awards had not yet been processed. Accordingly, the commission did not pay any whistleblower awards during fiscal year 2011.

Stocks Attractive to Traders Today in 2012: BLK, JCI, UNP, MS, UNH, KCG, EGHT

2012-01-22T00:41:00.000-08:00

CEO Laurence D. Fink of BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK), wants corporations to adopt shareholder friendly practices, according to Bloomberg. The company holds at?a minimum?5% of the shares of 2,400 companies worldwide. In letters to 600 of the firm’s biggest holdings,?Fink wrote?that BlackRock seeks to “engage in dialogue” with management to address issues that will be raised this year at shareholder meetings.
Shares of Johnson Controls, Inc. (NYSE:JCI) are trading 8.09% lower today, with consensus?of $44.03B. Johnson Controls lowers their Euro assumption to $1.30 from $1.35,?having seen Europe auto production at 20.1M units, +1.5%.
Versus a consensus of $5.06B,?Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) reports Q4 revenue of?$5.1B.
Shares of Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) are trading 4.5% higher today, as the company is rumored to be cutting senior banker and trader pay 20%-30%, according to?Bloomberg. Sources with knowledge of the plan were cited.
Shares of UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:UNH) are trading 2.97% lower today, after?FY12 revenue $107B-$108B vs. consensus $108B is being projected.
Shares of Knight Capital Group Inc. (NYSE:KCG) are trading 9.28% higher today, following reports of Q4 revenue $341.3M vs. consensus $312.47M. Q4 Electronic Execution Services projects revenue $40.6M vs. $37.1M. And Market Making revenue is projecting?$187.4M vs. $111.0M.
Shares of? 8×8, Inc. (NASDAQ:EGHT) are trading 24.11% higher today, after it was revealed that business customer churn decreased to a record low of 2.0%, compared to a churn rate of 2.2% in the same period in 2011 and 2.1% in the 2012. Ending Q3 with 27,677 business customers, 8×8 reported Q3 revenue $23.3M vs. consensus $22.09M.

Credit Crisis Update: U.S. Stocks Skid as Bailout Bogs Down, President to Address the Nation

2012-01-21T20:16:00.000-08:00

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Greece and its private sector creditors remain mired in deep negotiations over a deal to reduce the nation's crushing debt load.
Institute of International Finance director Charles Dallara, who represents the private sector investors and banks that hold Greek debt, said "it's not entirely clear" how close the parties are to a deal.
"I wouldn't say I'm confident, but I'm hopeful we'll reach agreement," Dallara told CNN International's Richard Quest in a phone interview from Athens.
The talks ended Wednesday without an agreement. They will resume Thursday and Dallara said final terms could be reached in the days ahead.
The IIF has been in discussions with the Greek government over an agreement to voluntarily write down the value of Greek government bonds by 50%.
The private sector holds over €200 billion worth of Greece's total debt load -- estimated at €350 billion.
Dallara said the group intends to follow through on the 50% writedown, which was announced following a summit of European Union leaders in December.
That would result in significant losses for the private sector. But it would also help reduce Greece's debt load to 120% of economic output by 2020.
In addition, Dallara said 15% of the remaining amount that Greece owes the private sector would be paid in cash. Another 35% would be restructured, or replaced with loans that have longer maturities and lower interest rates.
The talks broke down last week amid demands for even larger write downs, and Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos' call for a private sector participation rate of 100%.
Dallara told CNN he's confident the group can "mobilize a high participation." But that doesn't mean 100%, he added.
The deal is a key condition for Greece to receive additional bailout funds from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. Without additional financial support, Greece may not be able to make a €14 bill! ion paym ent it owes on bonds coming due March 20.
Dallara stressed that both sides are interested in finding "common ground."

World Bank warns on risk of global recession

He said the creditors recognize that a portion of Greece's debt needs to be written off in order to avoid a "disorderly" default, which could have severe repercussions for the global economy. But he acknowledged that some investors may be worried that other euro area governments could extract similar concessions.
All governments have an interest in resolving Greece's debt problems "in a cooperative manner" so that investors will be confident that issues this extreme can be resolved "in a mutually satisfactory way," said Dallara.
-- CNN's Jim Boulden contributed to this report from London.

Best Stocks To Buy Right Now

2012-01-20T23:07:00.000-08:00

Best Stocks To Buy Right Now: Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ)

Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ), the largest wine company in the world by revenue and the largest premium wine company, offers a value-priced play on the potential growth of the US wine market.
Constellation also owns 50% of Crown Imports, the joint venture that distributes Corona Extra and Corona Light, the best selling imported beer in the US. As well, Constellation owns Svedka Vodka, one of the fastest growing premium vodkas.
The company’s well-known wine labels include Woodbridge and Robert Mondavi (acquired in 2004), Vendange (2001), Franciscan Oakville Estate, Estancia, Ravenswood, Arbor Mist (1998), and Clos du Bois (2007).
If you notice a number of acquisitions on this list, that is because Constellation spent the decade between 1998 and 2007 building up its position as the largest premium wine maker in the US, with sizeable positions in the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand as well.

Best Stocks To Buy Right Now: ETJ

High food prices aren’t helping either, for the same reasons. US consumers spend less of their total income on these two items than their counterparts in the developing world, where higher food prices will cause social disruption.
Covered-call funds typically give investors the advantage of producing income in flat markets, but don’t do well in quickly rising or falling markets. We like the idea that gently rising or falling markets can be profitable for such funds.
One such fund we’ve previously recommended is the Eaton Vance Risk-Managed Diversified Equity Income (ETJ). Its advantage is in the risk-managed part of its title. The fund sells calls like most covered-call funds, but also buys puts to guard against a market decline.
Today the fund trades at a steep discount of 9.5%, and offers a yield of 10.1%. We think their new policy of buying protective put spreads is a prudent strategy, although it may have scared off some current holders, depressing the price.
The largest holdings are in information technology at 18.04%, financials at 15.58%, health care at 11.82% and consumer staples at 11.45%.

Best Stocks To Buy Right Now: Zalicus (ZLCS)

Zalicus (ZLCS)—my top pick for a biotechnology stock breakout in 2011—is proving its worth, based on fourth-quarter results.
The company burned $2.1 million in cash during the quarter, and ended the period with $46.5 million in cash and equivalents. As is usual with development-stage biotech companies, aside from cash levels and cash burn, the accounting numbers were less important than management’s program update.
Zalicus has one product on the market: Exalgo, for chronic pain, marketed by a subsidiary of Covidien (COV).
When Covidien reported their results, they mentioned “good sales of our new Exalgo” product. I had forecast $400,000 in Exalgo royalties to Zalicus in the December quarter, so I was pleased to learn that they hit that right on the button.
With the initial distributor inventory back in balance, from here on Exalgo royalties should track prescription growth.
This year, I expect Covidien to target 12,000 frequent prescribers and sell about $50 million in Exalgo, yielding around $4 million to Zalicus at my 8% royalty estimate. Sales should increase to $100 million in 2012, $200 million in 2013 and level off at around $300 million in 2014.
The associated royalties of at least $8 million, $16 million and $24 million will help fund research and clinical trial expenses, with no stock dilution. Zalicus says the royalty rate is “tiered,” so my 8% estimate is conservative.

Best Stocks To Buy Right Now: Cloud Peak Energy (CLD)

One company is likely to take advantage of Asia’s long-term growth without bearing its share of risks. It’s Cloud Peak Energy (CLD), the fourth-largest thermal coal miner in the US.
Unlike base metals, thermal coal (which is used to generate electricity) is highly leveraged to long-run GDP growth.
Despite all the imbalances in Asia, the continent still benefits from an increasingly educated workforce, millions of people moving to cities, and so on. I believe Asian economic output and electricity demand will be much higher in 2021 than in 2011.
Of course, generating all that electricity will require a lot more thermal coal, even if nuclear and renewable energy become much more prevalent. Moreover, China and India have both become significant coal importers in recent years amid soaring demand.
Cloud Peak has not fully taken advantage of these trends and is trading for an exceptionally low valuation. We believe both are poised to change.

Best Stocks To Buy Right Now: UPS (NYSE: UPS)

UPS delivers economies of scale, operational efficiency, and an attractive dividend approaching 3%, write Josh Peters and Keith Schoonmaker of Morningstar DividendInvestor.
UPS (NYSE: UPS) is the colossus among global transportation companies, and powerful barriers to entry guard its economic profit. Its $45 billion of revenue in 2009 exceeded the combined sales of the four largest North American railroads.
The stock looks about fairly valued here, but we’re encouraged that the company’s recent 10.6% boost to its dividend will be the first of several handsome increases as the global economy revives.
Despite its extensive unionization and asset intensity, UPS produces returns on invested capital about double its cost of capital and margins well above those of its competitors. We credit the firm’s leading package density and outstanding operational efficiency, enhanced by extensive investment in information systems.
UPS and its competitors have turned to Asia and developing nations for growth, and we think UPS has a lot of runway left to build speed. Even existing operations have revenue expansion potential because of the firm’s rare pricing power.
While rapid changes in shipping demand during 2009 demonstrate the potential for short-run uncertainty because of macroeconomic factors, we are only optimistic about UPS’ future—and expect solid, if not record, results for 2011.
No Letup in Sight
UPS is in fine shape, financially speaking, with a Morningstar credit rating of A-. The firm has increased its use of debt in recent years, both to satisfy pension obligations and repurchase shares, but debt burdens remain fairly modest. In 2010, the dividend represented 53% of earnings, and the indicated payout ratio for 2011 looks to be around 50%.
While UPS operations are cyclical thanks to the high fixed costs of supporting its worldwide network, profits covered the dividend with room to spare even in the trough year of 2009 (per-share earnings of $2.31), and free cash flow remained strong.
While the cyclical nature of its business has kept UPS from raising its dividend every year, it has either increased or maintained its dividend for more than four decades, and the dole has risen in ten of the 12 years since the stock’s 1999 debut on the public market. (This probably has a lot to do with the fact that an impressive 36% of outstanding shares are Class A stock owned by employees, retirees and descendants of founders.)
The compound growth rate for dividends over the past decade has been a handsome 10.6%, although this pace includes an upward drift in the payout ratio (which averaged 39% from 2002 to 2007).

We believe overall global parcel-shipping market expansion and consistent price increases will enable UPS to grow at a compound annual rate of 8% during the next five years, a pace we expect the dividend to match.
At the stock’s current yield of 2.8%, we think UPS can deliver average total returns approaching 11% a year.

Best Stocks To Buy Right Now: TAL International Group (TAL)

TAL International Group (TAL) is one of the world’s largest lessors of containers and chassis. The company buys intermodal containers that can be transported on ships, trucks, and railcars—enabling containers full of goods to travel great distances with a minimum of handling.
TAL’s operations include buying, leasing, and subsequently selling multiple types of intermodal containers. TAL is also involved in reselling containers to container traders and users, as well as financing port equipment, such as container cranes, reach stackers, and so on. The company owns 856,000 intermodal containers.
Full Speed Ahead for Trade
Demand for containers dwindled in 2009, but rebounded with a vengeance in 2010. TAL’s utilization rate reached a record 98.6% at the end of 2010, even though the company added 180,000 containers during the year.
Container purchases are primarily financed by the company’s bond offerings. TAL’s bonds are rated “A” by Standard & Poor’s, and carry an interest rate of 4.8%.
Strong demand is causing a global shortage for containers, which is driving leasing rates and resale prices significantly higher—all to the benefit of TAL. Part of the stronger demand can be attributed to reduced direct container purchases by TAL’s shipping customers, which are trying to avoid new capital expenditures.
TAL has ordered another 180,000 containers for delivery in 2011, many of which have already been committed to leases. As a result, the company expects profits to accelerate during the next several quarters.
Sales increased 7%, and earnings per share catapulted from $0.72 in 2009 to $2.32 in 2010.

Best Stocks To Buy Right Now: Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) & Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT)

Those are Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT). Maybe I’ll take those in order.
Pfizer is a stock where everyone’s worried about the Lipitor patent expiring later in 2011. But there’s much more to Pfizer than just Lipitor.
If you look to 2012—which will be the first full year after the Lipitor is gone from Pfizer—the company should earn somewhere north of $2 a share, by our estimates as well as the guidance of the company.
The stock is trading at $19 or thereabouts, so you’re looking at a company that’s trading at roughly nine times earnings once you’re past this one negative event. That just seems way too cheap a price for that stock.
Looking at Abbott, it’s in a very similar situation in that they have one blockbuster drug, Humira, and people are thinking that Abbott today is going to be like Pfizer was a couple years ago where they’re just dependent on this one blockbuster.
Abbott is also just trading at a very cheap price. They should earn somewhere just below $5 a share, and the stock is in the mid 40s. So again you’re looking at a stock trading at about nine times earnings.
Or, if you want to strip away Humira and just assume that that falls off the planet a year from now, you’re looking at a stock that’s trading ex-Humira at about twelve times [earnings], which is still—even if that drug was gone—a very low price for a company of Abbott’s quality.

Tesoro Shares Plunged: What You Need to Know in 2012

2012-01-20T13:30:00.000-08:00

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Tesoro (NYSE: TSO ) are plunging today, down by as much as 10%, after the company updated its fourth-quarter guidance.
So what: The company expects to report a net loss between $0.55 and $0.80 per share, compared to the $0.65 profit analysts are looking for. Tesoro cited an extremely weak margin environment in California and the collapse of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to Brent crude oil spread.
Now what: The Tesoro Index for the California area was a negative $0.05 per barrel, down over $6 compared to the sequential and year-over-year prices. The WTI to Brent spread fell from $26 per barrel in September to just $8 per barrel in December. The decline reduces benchmark margins at Tesoro's refineries and the margin on long-haul foreign crude oil barrels indexed to WTI. When you're in the oil business, volatility is simply the name of the game.

As Fidelity Re-Opens Magellan Fund, Investors Review Top Holdings (FMAGX, NOK, GLW, GOOG, SLB, CNQ, SPLS, T, AGN, MON)

2012-01-19T14:57:00.000-08:00

It’s official. Fidelity’s Magellan Fund (FMAGX) is being re-opened for new investors. This fund at one point in 1997 became so large that the fund closed itself to new funds and outside investment commitments. As of the last seen date Fidelity’s Magellan Fund had some $43.3+ Billion in assets under management.

Fidelity says that as the investor base is now 10 years older, they have had adequate redemptions and portfolio manager Harry Lang says: "We believe that the time is right to make Magellan available to a new generation of investors………… We believe that generating new sales to offset future redemptions will help stabilize the fund’s cash flows and assist Harry in most effectively directing investment strategies for the benefit of fund shareholders. It’s effectively the inverse of the reason why we limited new purchases of the fund 10 years ago. At that time, we were seeing strengthening cash inflows, and we expected that trend to continue."

More importantly, Harry Lang also noted, "I’ve been fortunate to find great stocks here in the U.S. and abroad to include in the portfolio. If we’re able to achieve a better balance of cash flows in the fund going forward, I’ll regularly have the cash on hand to capitalize on attractive investment opportunities as I find them."

Fidelity noted that some 85% of the funds assets are deemed for retirement (IRA, 401K etc.), and therefore the fund would seem to take more of a longer-term view. The top 10 Holdings are unfortunately as of September 30, 2007, so we’ll have another two weeks or so before we know what the real holdings are: The TOP 10 as of then are as follows:

Nokia (NOK, Corning (GLW), Google (GOOG), Schlumberger (SLB), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Staples (SPLS), AT&T (T), Allergan (AGN), Monsanto (MON), Renewable Energy Corp. AS (overseas). This list was posted! on Dece mber 30, 2007, so it might be more updated than some of the aggregator financial news and data web sites that take time to update.

If you want to see the full holdings the list on their site is here. With more than $43 Billion in assets this could create quite a lot of buying in stock names where Fidelity wants to put capital to work. We would surmize that the fund might not add as much to some of its key holdings if it can put capital to work in some of the names it owns less of that might like to own more of.
Also be advised that the full holdings list is 45 days old and we know for certain that many of the positions and many of the weightings have already changed from November 30, 2007. We’d actually start screening out some of the smaller holdings off of that master list to see which are attractive in growth and/or value that will still do well in a slowing economy or even a recession. If you were opening a decade-long closed fund, you might be tempted to disperse more of the new inflows into other names that might be under-owned or under-weighted in the fund.

102nd Session of China Import and Export Fair Provisions and Regulations

2007-09-22T10:09:00.000-07:00

Chapter 1 Regulations of Safety and Fire-prevention

To ensure the order and safety of the China Import and Export Fair (hereinafter referred as Canton Fair or the Fair) and avoid various safety accidents and illegal events, the following safety and fire-prevention provisions have been formulated by Canton Fair in accordance with Fire-prevention Laws of P.R. China, Chinese Customs Supervision Regulations and relevant Laws and Regulations of social security administration as well as safety requirements of Canton Fair, which shall be strictly abide by all exhibitors.

1. The exhibitor shall reinforce and enhance the safety and fire-prevention awareness of his participants and proactively cooperate with the fire-prevention and security sectors of Canton Fair to maintain its good order and safety.

2. The exhibitor shall notify and restrict his participants to strictly comply with the Laws and regulations of the People’s Republic of China without conducting any illegal activities during the course of Canton Fair especially in the exhibition hall.

3. The exhibitor shall only be allowed to enter the exhibition hall with a valid badge wearing in front during his stay in the exhibition hall for the inspection of the security guards of Canton Fair at any moment. Such badge shall only be used by the owner and not be allowed to be transferred to any other people or sold out or revised.

4. Except for those who have been specially exempted by Canton Fair, all other exhibitors shall accept the safety inspection conducted by the guards of Canton Fair.

5. The exhibitor shall pay special attention to guarding against theft and safekeeping his personal properties (including laptops) and exhibits.
(1) Exhibitor with laptop shall apply from the guard at the hall for computer lock to have the laptop protected.
(2) The exhibitor shall enter the hall in time as soon as the exhibits have been exhibited in the stand and shall not leave the hall before closing time. At least one person shall stay in the stand to look after the exhibits during the opening time to prevent any pilferage. All exhibits shall be managed strictly in accordance with the custody provisions of the inbound and outbound cargoes under the Customs Law of P.R.China.
(3) All valuable exhibits shall be safely kept in the cabinet, safe or protected through other effective measures prior to the closing time of the exhibition every day.
(4) All controlled cutting tools and weapons being approved by Canton Fair to exhibit shall be kept in the locked exhibition cabinets or fixed up on the exhibition panels, which shall also be guarded and managed by specially assigned persons.
(5) At times of opening and closing every day, the exhibitor shall carry out timely check up of the exhibit quantities and report to the security sector of Canton Fair Complex (security section of Canton Fair Security Office) in case of any losses.

6. No poisonous, inflammable and explosive and radiation exhibits shall be directly displayed in the exhibition hall. Those exhibits shall only be displayed through pictures, copy substitute or models. Goods fall into this category include fireworks, cracks, gasoline, spirits, thinner, hydrogen and other items may be treated by the security sector as threatening to the safety of the exhibition hall.

7. Except for specified places, smoking shall be forbidden in the exhibition areas such as exhibition halls, lounges, dinning areas, cafe, toilets, meeting rooms and so forth.

8. The fire-prevention aisles shall be accessible under any circumstances.
(1) The exhibitor shall not pile up any exhibits and constructional materials at the hall entrances or aisles during period of stand construction.
(2) The exhibitor shall not keep any tables, chairs and exhibits on the aisles of the hall, or distribute any product catalogs, brochures, promotional materials or any other gifts at the aisles or any public areas in the exhibition hall during the course of exhibition.

9. Collocation and arrangement of the exhibits shall be stable and safe. Exhibitors shall submit
written applications to the Fair in advance for demonstration of the exhibits or other items. And these demonstration shall not be arranged before being approved. During demonstration, exhibitors shall be in considerations of safety and good orders within the exhibition hall without any potential dangerous outcomes or disturbance to the visitors and any third parties.
(1) All exhibits and inflammable decorations shall be located at a minimum space of 30 CM away from the lightings in the stand or other heating electronic apparatus.
(2) All exhibits，especially the mobile large-scale machinery, shall be fasten upon safe locations to prevent slides.
(3) Demonstration of machinery shall be performed by professionals or under the direction of such professionals. Those machines shall be equipped with anti-startup devices to stop casual mal-operations of the visitors or non-professional persons.
(4) The Exhibitor shall submit written application in case flammable materials such as gasoline and alcohol are needed in the demonstration. The application needs to be approved and those materials could be used after the on-site check of the public security and fire-fighting personnel.
(5) High decibel acoustics shall not be used for any kinds of demonstrations. The decibel of demonstration shall be strictly limited to a scale below 70.

10. All exhibits shall be under the control of the China customs. The exhibitor shall give timely report to the China customs concerning any inability of the exhibitor to return any exhibits to original countries/regions because of damages, losses or pilferages. As for the damaged exhibits, the customs shall levy a tariff on basis of the extent of such damages. A tariff shall accordingly be levied on lost or pilfered exhibits in accordance with relevant regulations.

11. Stand shall be set up on basis of completion of relevant application and entry procedures. Setup works shall then be executed in accordance with relevant regulations stipulated in Chapter 3, Part II herein, i.e. Stipulations of Construction Management for Custom-built Stand, since this regulation shall be an integral part of the regulations.

12. During the course of exhibition, the exhibitor as well as his entrusted contractor shall arrange electricians who are recorded on files of Canton Fair to be on duty so as to eliminate any kinds hidden safety trouble at any moment.

13. The exhibitor shall pay special attention to safety in electricity usage and shall not utilize any unqualified or malfunction electric devices or violate rules during operations.
(1) Stand electricity consumed shall be applied as per actual situation. The exhibitor shall not introduce from or connect to the electricity distributor or sockets inside the hall without permission or instruction from the electrician of Canton Fair.
(2) Machinery exhibits or other exhibits which need 24-hours electricity supply shall be equipped with appropriate and reliable protection switches and be free from any hidden breakdowns. Canton Fair shall not be responsible for any breakdowns caused by errors of the distributor switch due to defaults of the exhibitor’s devices.
(3) In case of a electricity breakdown caused by protection error of the distributor switch, the exhibitor shall report to Canton Fair through the Service and Complaint Call and Canton Fair shall accordingly dispatch an electrician to site for inspection and remedy works. The exhibitor shall not switch on the electricity per se.
(4) Exhibitor who rents the standard stand shall not be allowed to increase the lighting numbers in the stand per se. Neither shall he be allowed to connect to electricity supply by his own sockets.
(5) Exhibitor who uses standard stand shall pay timely attention to the lightings in the stand. In case of falling off of the spotlights, the exhibitor shall notify Canton Fair immediately or call the phone of Service and Complaint so as to enable Canton Fair to arrange an electrician to remedy the situation.
(6) Utilization of high-power devices such as electric water jug, cooker, and iron in the stands shall firstly gain approval from Canton Fair by submitting to Canton Fair a written application form.

14. Special Safety Regulations for Two-Storey Structures
(1) No heating electronic devices shall be allowed on the second storey of the stand.
(2) No demonstration and other activities which may be unsafe in accordance with the regulations of the security and fire-prevention sectors of P.R. China shall be allowed on the second storey of the stand.
(3) Negotiation persons on the second storey of the stand shall not be greater than 0.5 person per square meter. Similarly, the total weights of the negotiation persons and exhibits and average weight on unit area shall not be greater than the total designed loading capacity of this storey.
(4) Canton Fair shall arrange guards to go on inspection tours timely. The exhibitor shall proactively cooperate with these guards and ensure only acceptable exhibits weight and person
numbers are allowed on the second storey of the stand.

15. All constructional tools, surplus constructional and packing materials and accessories shall be cleared out of the exhibition hall prior to closure and subsequent to completion of construction works. The aforesaid items shall not be stored in the stand or any spaces behind (or beside) the stand. The exhibitor shall contact the Recommended transporter in case of any temporary storage of such items. Constructional tools, surplus constructional and packing materials and accessories brought from overseas by exhibitors shall be managed equal to import exhibits, and shall go through related procedures under the instructions of the Chinese Customs.
16. The exhibitor shall proactively cooperate with the guards at site to carry out clearance work during the course of exhibition.
(1) Clear all rubbish in the stand, extinguish kindling and other possible safety troubles.
(2) Switch off the eletricity supply in the stands.
(3) Safekeeping valuables (exhibits) and lock up the exhibition cabinets.

Chapter 2 Provisions of Sanitation Protection

1. The exhibitor in-charge shall guarantee the sanitation situations of his exhibitors through mastery of health conditions of all participants and provide the Sanitation Protection Office of Canton Fair with timely personal information with regard to sanitation and epidemic prevention.
2. Exhibitors shall carry out timely personal and living environment sanitary works. Protection measures shall be undertaken while approaching to any public areas with dense population. Casually dinning out shall be forbidden and all exhibitors shall be care about food sanitations. Living rooms must be opened to fresh air. All exhibitors must pay attention to climate changes so as to balance live and work well and not to work with illness.

3. The exhibitor should report to the person in charge in case of fever, cough, headache, vomit, diarrhea or other uncomfortable symptoms when registering in the hotels. He should then conduct a medical examination and treatment immediately in the nearest hospital. The exhibitor shall not be allowed to work with illness and enter the hotel under such circumstances. If such cases are found in the exhibition hall, the exhibitor should give immediate notice to the sanitary duty office of Canton Fair and Canton Fair shall arrange a medial examination and treatment for the patient in the appointed hospital.

4. All exhibitors shall consciously comply with following regulations: not to discuss, inquire about or diffuse any relevant information of such cases and consciously maintain regular order of Canton Fair.

5. Canton Fair will introduce to the exhibitor knowledge of personal sanitation and release sanitary guarantee information through brochures of Knowledge of Personal Sanitation, Work Briefing on Sanitation Guarantee and Messages of Canton Fair. The exhibitor should enhance his awareness of sanitation and grasp timely information and knowledge of personal sanitation.

6. To ensure personal health of the exhibitors, Canton Fair shall arrange restaurants to provide healthy meals for the exhibitor in the exhibition hall. The exhibitor shall therefore be suggested not to order Chinese or western foods from other sources or bring the same into the hall. Canton Fair shall not be responsible for any consequences arising there from.

7. Clinics shall be set up in the hall by Canton Fair to provide exhibitors with timely first aid services. Please refer to Chapter 2 “On-site Service” of Part II herein for details.

Chapter 3 Regulations of Use of Stands

1. The stands in the exhibition hall shall be exclusively utilized by the exhibitor who has
signed upon the Participation Agreement with Canton Fair. The exhibitor shall be forbidden to transfer or share any stand or parts of the stand with a third party without prior written consent of Canton Fair. Any of following cases shall be treated as violation of the use of stand regulations herein unless advanced permission has been issued from Canton Fair to the exhibitor:
(1) Distribution of business cards, product catalogs or promotional materials of non-recorded exhibitor in the stand;
(2) The exhibitor makes the fascia board of stand shelter and /or fascia board with titles of any non-recorded exhibitors.
(3) Entering into any kinds of agreement in name of a non-recorded exhibitor.
(4) Violating regulations for stand use stipulated in Participation Provisions.
(5) Canton Fair has other adequate evidences for such misconducts.

2. In case of absence at the Fair due to visa issues, the exhibitor shall then delegate a third party to participate in the exhibition or use the rented stands with a written consent from Canton Fair. The aforesaid third party shall hold the Power of Attorney from the exhibitor to sign related exhibition documents with Canton Fair to confirm that the Participation Agreement and all service provisions hereof have been accepted by such third party.

Chapter 4 Regulations of Exhibit Management

1. The China customs shall treat all import exhibits as temporary import and export goods. The exhibitor shall therefore accept the supervision of the Chinese customs and carry out specified customs procedures. Exhibits under the supervision of China Customs include:
(1) Goods and articles displayed or demonstrated in the exhibition hall;
(2) Goods and articles required for demonstrating machines and apparatus.
(3) Constructional and decoration materials used by the exhibitor to setup temporary stand.
(4) Films, slides, video tapes, tapes, specifications, advertisements, discs, and display equipment used by the exhibitor for demonstration and publicity.
(5) Other goods and articles displayed or demonstrated in the exhibition hall.

2. Guangzhou Customs is the local customs of exhibits in the International Pavilion of the Canton Fair. During the Canton Fair, Guangzhou Customs shall adopt concentrating supervision of port transfer, declaration and inspection of exhibiting place. In principle, exhibitors shall conduct the import declaration procedures in Guangzhou Customs. Transfer procedures of exhibits imported from ports other than Guangzhou port shall be conducted in entry customs.

3. Exhibits of the International Pavilion of the 101st Session of Canton Fair fall into the scope of the custody of China Customs, and shall enjoy such special treatments as exempt from getting import permit, exempt from pay for import tariff and other taxes. Transporter and overseas exhibitors of the International Pavilion are required by the China Customs to be responsible and assure of every articles of exhibits. Exhibits imported under customs bonds shall strictly comply with relevant Chinese customs regulations, include but not limit to the following:
(1) No exhibits shall be allowed to be sold or to be presented to others, or to be removed from the hall within the Chinese territory by the exhibitor without permission from the Chinese customs.
(2) With the approval of China Customs, exhibits sold to or presented to individuals or companies within the Chinese territory shall go through customs clearance and pay in relevant tariff and duties subsequent to stand dismantling. International exhibits within the scope of Compulsory Certification and strict control of China Customs (for details, please refer to Service Guide of Exhibit Transportation of www.cantonfair.org.cn or ask for materials from three recommended transporters). The exhibitor shall not be authorized to remove any exhibits out of the exhibition hall or any controlled places nominated by the Chinese customs prior to completion of all import procedures. The service charge rate of the purchasing and presenting exhibits shall be equal to the return service charge rate. Other charges such as related tariff, transport charge and storage charge arisen there from shall be collected in addition.
(3) Disposed exhibits shall be reported to the recommended transporter in advance. Those exhibits shall not be casually disposed by the exhibitor per se and shall be handed over to the recommended transporter to transfer the same to the Chinese customs for settlement.
(4) Canton Fair hereby reminds all exhibitors to keep their exhibits properly. Loss or damaged exhibits may need to render relevant tariff to the Chinese customs.
(5) All exhibits shall be well packed and handed over to the recommended transporter to transit to controlled venues appointed by the Chinese customs so as to carry out procedures of repatriation except for those have been allowed to be imported, disposed and presented as free gifts or promotional materials approved by the Chinese customs.

4. All promotional materials and technical data to be used or demonstrated including films, slides, tapes, video tapes, CD-ROMs, pictures, descriptions and advertisements should be submitted to Guangzhou customs by the exhibitor for prior approval. Without permission from the customs, the aforesaid items shall not be used or distributed. All printing materials and audio-visual products harmful to the politics, economy, culture and morality of the People’s Republic of China and infringing any IPRs shall not be used or demonstrated. Otherwise, they shall be confiscated, returned by the customs as per real situation or be forcibly modified prior to any kinds of utilization.

5. In accordance with laws and regulations of Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau of China, temporary import and export goods shall be exempted from inspection unless otherwise specified by laws and other administrative regulations (Entry of exhibits such as animals and fruits shall be approved after the quarantine). Inspection is conducted free of charge, and quarantine is charged according to the categories and requirements. Related charges are paid in accordance with national standards. Exhibitors who conduct the entry and exit procedures with ATA certificate shall enjoy the exemption or special treatment in terms of inspection and quarantine.

6. Overseas animal, vegetation and foodstuff exhibits shall be validated/ approved by Chinese Entry-Exit and Inspection and Quarantine authorities prior to entry to China. The exhibitor shall be required to furnish to the recommended transporter with exhibits/samples/list of exhibits for approval from related authorities 20 days prior to import of such goods. Guangzhou Entry-Exit, Inspection and Quarantine Bureau is responsible for the inspection and quarantine of exhibits of the International Pavilion of the 101st session of the Canton Fair.
For exhibits, according to related laws and regulations, which are forbidden to enter or exit, be carried, or posted, exhibit list and conditions for inspection and approval for animal and vegetation, documents and materials for related procedures, please refer to Service Guide of Exhibit Transportation at www.cantonfair.org.cn or ask for detailed materials from Canton Fair Recommended Transporters.

7.In case farm products is found not in conformity with related regulations of China Entry-Exit, Inspection and Quarantine and with safety hazard, the exhibitors shall destroy these products immediately and buried or burned in the landfill nominated by Bureau of City Appearance Environment and Sanitation of Guangzhou Municipality. The expense occurred therefrom shall be borne by the exhibitors.

8. Only exhibits stipulated in the Participation Agreement or with written consent of Canton Fair shall be exhibited by the exhibitor in the stand. The exhibitor shall bring in and submit the following documents to Canton Fair for inspection:
(1) Exhibits shall be produced in any country or region other than mainland China. Certificate of Origin shall be submitted.
(2) Only if the Exhibitor, prior to entering the Exhibition Area for setting up stands during the preparation period, present to the managing staff at site of the Organizer original documents such as the customs clearance of all exhibits or ATA Certificate and submit relevant copies, can the Exhibitor enter Exhibition Area. In case relevant documents are failed to be submitted, the Organizer reserves the right to reject the Exhibitor from entering the Exhibition Area, and the loss caused therefrom shall be borne by the Exhibitor.
(3) All exhibits involving IPRs such as trademark, patent and copyright and quality attestation should be attached with “List of Files for Trade Mark, Patent, Copyright & Quality Attestation” (please fill in schedule D1) and copies of legal certificates of such trademark, patent and copyright and quality attestation.
(4) Signed Participation Agreement for exhibits not directly produced by the exhibitor shall be obtained from the manufacturer by the exhibitor.

9. Exhibits fall into one of the following categories shall be treated as breach exhibits and
shall be disposed as breach products.
(1) Exhibits do not include in the exhibit scope specified in the Participation Agreement or exhibit scope approved by written consent of Canton Fair.
(2) Exhibits involving IPRs such as trademarks, patent, copyright and quality attestation being without relevant legal certificates.
(3) Exhibits not directly produced by the exhibitor being without signed Participation Agreement with the manufacturer.
(4) Exhibits, which shall go through the procedures of inspection and quarantine according to Chinese laws and regulations, are not inspected or quarantined.
(5) Exhibits, without the consent of China customs and Entry-Exit, Inspection and Quarantine Authorities, are sold or eaten on a trial basis during the Fair.
(6) Other exhibits without legal origins.

10. No exhibits shall be retailed in the hall.

11. The exhibitor per se shall not be allowed to display, demonstrate and publicize any materials of the exhibition in any format in the hall or carry out any kind of publicity for the exhibition in any forms without prior written consent of Canton Fair.

Chapter 5 Code of Conduct for Participation at the Fair

1. All activities of the exhibitor including exhibition, demonstration, distribution of product catalogs and promotional materials or gifts shall have to be carried out only within the stand area stipulated in the Participation Agreement without disturbing the neighboring exhibitors or exhibition order of Canton Fair. The exhibitor shall strictly abide by the Safety and Fire-prevention Regulations.

2. The exhibitor shall instruct and restrict his participants to behave themselves in the exhibition.
(1) No Pilferage of exhibits of other exhibitors.
(2) No photographing or recording of exhibits on other stands shall be allowed without others’ permission.
(3) No entry into any other stands without invitations from their users.
(4) No disturbance to the visitors (buyers) or other exhibitors.
(5) Obey to and cooperate with the guards of Canton Fair without being deliberately provocative.
(6) No damage to any fixed or movable installations in the hall include but not limit to:
No damage to any exhibit accessories, boards, aluminum materials, lightings, tables and ①chairs in the standard stand. Details shall be referred to Chapter 4, Services and Stipulations of Standard Stand Decoration, of Part II.
No nailing, trilling or st②icking shall be allowed on the ceiling, floors, pillars or walls in the hall.
No damage to the establishments of fireproofing, monitoring, electricity distributing, ③lighting and communication constructed to the ceilings, floor ditches, pillars and walls in the hall and toilet and movable fireproofing installations therefrom.
(7) Any lost articles found in the hall shall not be pocketed and they shall be handed over to the security sector of Canton Fair.
Notes: Please refer to Chapter 2, On-site Service, of Part II for phone number of the Security Section of the hall.

3. In case of finding any non-exhibitors distributing product catalogs, promotional materials and CDs in the exhibition or the exhibitor is disturbed by such persons, the exhibitor shall be obliged to report to the security section of Canton Fair immediately to for settlement.

4. Canton Fair shall make overall arrangements for the clearness of the aisles as well as other public areas of the hall. The exhibitor should clear the rubbish in his stand per se and keep the rubbish in the trash bins which shall then be settled by Canton Fair.

5. To ensure safety of the exhibitor, his personal properties and exhibits or to compensate his losses may be caused by ignorance of his employee or staff, the exhibitor shall be requested by
Canton Fair to purchase adequate insurance for the stand he rents.

Chapter 6 Complaint and Settlement Provisions of Being Suspected of Infringing IPRs

1. General Principles
1. The regulations herein are formulated in accordance with related laws and regulations to protect IPRs, maintain good trading order, and to protect the legal rights and interests of the exhibitors as well as the owners of such IPR rights during the period of China Import and Export Fair (hereinafter referred to as Canton Fair).
2. The regulations are only applicable to the protection of IPRs during the period of the Canton Fair.

3. The enterprises shall sign Letter of Undertaking with related department of the Canton Fair. (Form D2)
2. Management of Complaints

4. Reception Station of Complaints and Settlements for IPRs and Trade Disputes (hereinafter referred to as “Complaint Reception Station”) established by Business Office of the Canton Fair is the only station receiving the complaints concerning IPRs infringement. The Canton Fair invites relevant government administrative department of IPRs to work with the Complaint Reception Station.
5. The Complaint Reception Station shall merely accept and hear Complaints concerning with being suspected of infringement on IPRs (hereinafter referred to as infringement) arising in the exhibition hall during period of the session of the exhibition.

6. All disputes concerning IPRs during Canton Fair shall be settled in accordance with Complaint procedures stipulated herein. Those who tend to avoid the Complaint Station and negotiate with the infringing party directly thus cause a disorder in the exhibition shall be settled as disobey the Exhibition Order Managing Regulations.

7. In case that the exhibitor’s exhibits, packaging of exhibits, promotional materials and any part of his stand has independent IPRs, the exhibitor shall bring the certificate documents of ownership for inspection of the fair.

8. In case that the exhibitor violates relevant agreements signed with the Canton Fair, he shall be obliged to compensate for all expenses and losses in case of disputes arising from his exhibits, packaging of exhibits, promotional materials and any part of his stand infringing IPRs of others.

9. In case that the appellant lodges a Complaint to the Complaint Reception Station and requests the Station to deal with the defendant as per regulation herein defined, the appellant shall accordingly agree to pay to the Station all expenses incurred and compensate to the defendant for all losses arising therefrom.

3. Complaint Procedures
10. Exhibitor with a valid badge of this Fair can lodge a Complaint to the Complaint Station in case that any infringements have been detected in the exhibits, promotional materials in the stand or in any displaying parts of the stand.

11. The appellant shall be required to show to the staff in the Complaint Station the ownership certificate. Appellant shall be further required to demonstrate relevant follow up legal documents in case such patent and copyright infringing shall be a repetition of previous session of Canton Fair and had been settled by this Complaint Station in previous session of Canton Fair. The case will not be accepted unless relevant documents from the appellant have been furnished. A repeated Complaint upon the same defendant for the same infringing on IPR will not be accepted by this Complaint Station.

12. The appellant shall be required to fill out the Letter of Complaint upon verification of the above documents by the staff of the Complaint Station. Please refer to Form D3 for details.
13. The Complaint Centre shall nominate staff to deal with the case upon reception of the Letter of Complaint. The defendant shall cooperate with the Complaint Station to deal with the case on behalf of the person in charge of the stand recorded.

14. Principle of Invert the Burden of Proof shall be employed to handle cases of infringement of patent and copyright. In the event that he shall be accused of being suspected of infringing in his exhibits, promotional materials or any parts of his exhibits, the defendant should immediately prove his non-infringement by demonstrating relevant certificate of rights or other evidences to prove he is in possession of legal rights and interests for the items alleged. The defendant shall accordingly be required to examine the alleged items with the staff of the Complaint Station.
15. In the case that the defendant shall be unable to effectively prove his non-infringement immediately, the accused items shall be temporarily detained by the Complaint Station. The defendant shall be meanwhile signed on the Letter of Undertaking to commit that he shall not operate or exhibit the accused items in case of his inability of furnishing effective evidences subsequent to such accuse. The Letter of Undertaking shall be made in duplicate and the defendant and the Complaint Station shall hold one copy respectively. Please refer to Form D4 for details.

16. In the case that he disagrees with the settlements of the Complaint Station, the defendant shall furnish supplement evidences of non-infringement to the Complaint Station within a workday (base on the schedule of Canton Fair). The temporarily detained items should be immediately returned to the exhibitor provided that the proof shall be effective; otherwise, those items shall be confiscated by the Compliant Station and forbidden in the exhibition.

17. The Appellant commits not to take any legal measures against the defendant in the exhibition hall prior to closing of this fair and subsequent to the Complaint Station has settled the case in accordance with the regulations herein defined and the outcomes have been accepted by the defendant.

18. All settled infringing exhibitors at the Fair shall be filed on the website of the Canton Fair by the Complaint Station subsequent to closing of this fair.

4. Punishment
19. Responsibility for all infringement happened in the stand shall be borne by the exhibitor who has entered into the Participation Agreement with Canton Fair and been registered by Canton Fair. The exhibitor shall accordingly accept the settlements finalized by Canton Fair.

20. Any Complaint involving infringement of trademark shall be resolved according the Trademark Law by the Complaint Station cooperating with relevant government trademark administrative departments. The exhibitor proved to be infringed shall be treated as infringement and be punished in accordance with the Trademark Law of P.R. China.

21. Any Complaint involving patent and copyright infringement will be settled by the Complaint Station as per procedures stipulated herein. Exhibitor who is unable to prove himself as “non-infringement” shall be regarded as being “suspected of infringement” and the infringing exhibits will be forbidden in the exhibition and be disposed as per regulations herein defined.

22. In case that the exhibitor’s staff refuse to cooperate with the Complaint Centre regarding any kinds of investigation and inspection, the Complaint Station and the security office of the Canton Fair shall be authorized to confiscate the badge of such person and stop such person from entering the hall afterwards subsequent to an invalid persuasion of the staff of the Station.

23. Should the exhibitor be found out to exhibit the same infringing exhibit in the same stand
subsequent to an initial settlement has been performed by the Complaint Station, the Complaint Station and the security office of the Canton Fair shall be authorized to confiscate the badges of all participants in such stand, stop them from entering the hall afterwards and circulate a notice of criticism of the exhibitor on Newsletter of Canton Fair.

24. Those exhibitors who are suspected of infringement for one session shall be given written warning by the Canton Fair; those exhibitors who are suspected of infringement of patent and copyright for consecutive two sessions or accumulative three sessions; those exhibitors who are suspected of infringement of trademark for consecutive two sessions; those exhibitors who purposely counterfeit and fake other’s patent and registered trademark shall be refused to participate in six sessions of the Canton Fair and be criticized in the circulating notice.

25. Those exhibitors who get effective judgments of infringing IPR through administrative or judicatory approaches show the alleged exhibits in the stand, and those exhibitors who have been refused to participate in several sessions of the Canton Fair and are suspected of infringing IPR after they resume the participation of the Canton Fair, shall be disqualified the participation of the Canton Fair permanently and be criticized in the circulating notice.

26. In case that during the same session of the Canton Fair, over ten exhibitors infringing one ownership No.(extensive infringement) or one exhibitor is suspected of infringing over three ownership No. shall be disqualified the participation for next session of the Canton Fair and be criticized in the circulating notice.

5. Interpretation of Terminologies
27. Intellectual Property Rights, in accordance with TRIPRS (Agreement On Trade-related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights) of WTO, shall include the following:
① Copyright and Related Rights
② Trademarks
③ Geographical Indications
④ Industrial Designs
⑤ Patents
⑥ Layout-Designs (Topographies) of Integrated Circuits
⑦ Protection of Undisclosed Information
28. Exhibitor—— the herein defined exhibitor who are responsible for infringing IPR shall be the one who has entered into the Participation Agreement with Canton Fair and has been recorded by Canton Fair (i.e. the company shown on the fascia)
29. Proofing documents—— writ of ownership of IPR including testify documents required by the Laws and Regulations of the People’s Republic of China and documents required by the Complaint Station from the appellant or the defendant as per actual situation.

6. Supplementary Articles
30. Whether the defendant has been punished by the Complaint Station or not, any further legal measures undertaken by the appellant or the defendant subsequent to this Fair shall be conducted through the local administrative or judicial authorities pursuant to the closure of the Canton Fair.

31. Every session, the Complaint Station analyzes related complaint data and reports the name list of the exhibitors suspected of infringing IPRs to related departments.

32. Authority for the interpretation of the regulations belongs to China Foreign Trade Centre.
33. The regulations come into force as of the day of issuance. In case that related previous
provisions conflict with the regulations herein, the regulations prevails.

More about 102nd Session of China Import and Export Fair
+ A Brief Introduction to the 102nd Session of China Import and Export Fair Exhibition
+ Frequently Asked Questions about Canton Fair
+ Canton Fair Travelling Service
+ Recruitment of the Agent for Internatioanl Pavilion of the 102nd Session of China Import and Export Fair
+ Notice of Exhibitor Recruitment of International Pavilion
+ The Agents of the International Pavilion of the 102nd Session of China Import and Export Fair
+ Liuhua Complex Brief Introduction
+ Pazhou Complex Brief Introduction
+ 4 Star Hotels of Guangzhou part 2
+ 4 Star Hotels of Guangzhou 1
+ Guangzhou Car Rental Hire Service
+ Guangzhou Geared for More Metro-Bus Connection
+ How to Book A Taxi on The Internet
+ Business Tips in Guangzhou
+ Take Metro to Canton Fair
+ International Airlines
+ How to get to Guangzhou from Hong Kong?

A Brief Introduction to the 102nd Session of China Import and Export Fair Exhibition

2007-09-11T20:00:00.000-07:00

1. Official Fair Name
The 102nd Session of China Import and Export Fair (hereinafter referred to as Canton Fair)

2. Hosts
Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China
People’s Government of Guangdong Province

3. Organizer
China Foreign Trade Centre

4. Venue ( Pazhou Complex Brief Introduction )
Pazhou Complex of China Import and Export Fair

5. Location of the Pavilion
Exhibition Hall on the 2nd floor of Hall 21 and Hall 22 (referred as Hall 21.2 and Hall 22.2)

6. Exhibition Time
October 15 -20, 2007 9:00-18:00

7. Stand Construction and Dismantling Schedule
Stand Construction: Custom-built Stand Setting-up: October 10-12, 2007 8:30-17:30
Move-In Exhibits: October 13, 2007 8:30-24:00
October 14, 2007 8:30-12:00
Standard Stand Move-In Exhibits: October 13, 2007 8:30-24:00
October 14 , 2007 8:30-12:00
The exhibition venue will be entirely closed at 12:00 at noon on October 14, 2007. Stand construction
shall be accomplished by then.
Stand Dismantling: 18:00, 20, October – 23:00, 21, October, 2007.
The complex will open for 24 hours on 20, October.

8. Recommended Contractor
Exhibition Service Department of China Foreign Trade Centre (Group)

9. Organizer Recommended Transporter
Air Sea Transport Inc.
Cosco-logistics (Guangzhou)
Baltrans International Cargo ltd., Guangzhou branch

10. Transport ( How to get to Canton Fair when you arriving in Guangzhou )
Pazhou Complex of China Import and Export Fair is located at No.380 Yuejiangzhong Road, Haizhu District, Guangzhou,
China. Exhibitors can approach to the Complex through following means:

(1)By Metro (Take Metro to Canton Fair)
Metro Line 2 (Sanyuanli Station-Wanshengwei Station):Take off at Xingangdong Station or Pazhou Station；

Metro Line 1(Guangzhou East Railway Station-Xilang Station): Take Metro Line 1 to Gongyuanqian Station. Then
transfer to Line 2 and take off at Xinggangdong Station or Pazhou Station；

Metro Line 3(Guangzhou Tianhe Bus Station-Panyu Square Station): Take Metro Line 3 to Kecun Station. Then transfer
Line 2 to Xingangdong Station；

Metro Line 4(Wanshengwei Station-Jinzhou Station): Take Metro Line 4 to Wanshengwei Station. Then transfer Line 2
to Xingangdong Station.

(2)By Taxi ( How to Book A Taxi on The Internet ，Guangzhou Car Rental Hire Service）
The flag fall price for taxis in Guangzhou is RMB 7 (for the first 2.3 Km). The price after 2.3 km is RMB 2.60 per
kilometer. The fuel surcharge is RMB 1. The meter is fixed in the front part of the taxi near the door.
3
(3)By Hotel Shuttle Bus
Information is available in the hotels.

11. Climate
Guangzhou is a typical tropical city with a South Asian monsoon oceanic climate. The average temperature in October that
belongs to dry season is between 18℃ and 31℃.

12. Currency
RMB is the circular currency in China. Foreign currency can be exchanged for RMB in hotels and bank outlets. The Bank of
China and the ATM with the sign of “China Union Pay” will provide service of drawing cash from credit cards.

13. Time Zone
Guangzhou time is 8 hours earlier than Greenwich Mean Time (+8 hours GMT)

14. Power Supply
The voltage standard in China is 220V/50Hz.

More about 102nd Session of China Import and Export Fair
+ Frequently Asked Questions about Canton Fair
+ Canton Fair Travelling Service
+ Recruitment of the Agent for Internatioanl Pavilion of the 102nd Session of China Import and Export Fair
+ Notice of Exhibitor Recruitment of International Pavilion
+ The Agents of the International Pavilion of the 102nd Session of China Import and Export Fair
+ Liuhua Complex Brief Introduction
+ Pazhou Complex Brief Introduction
+ 4 Star Hotels of Guangzhou part 2
+ 4 Star Hotels of Guangzhou 1
+ Guangzhou Car Rental Hire Service
+ Guangzhou Geared for More Metro-Bus Connection
+ How to Book A Taxi on The Internet
+ Business Tips in Guangzhou
+ Take Metro to Canton Fair
+ International Airlines
+ How to get to Guangzhou from Hong Kong?

2007 Market Info Update on China’s Furniture Industry

2007-08-20T10:24:00.000-07:00

1. China’s economy & its import and export trade

According to the latest “China Economy Quarterly” released on Dec.14, 2006 by the World Bank, China’s economic growth rate for the year 2006 is expected to reach 10.4% while its growth rate for the year 2007 is expected to slow down to 9.6%. China is now facing the challenge of balancing its economic development with the distribution of its benefits.

Relevant statistics show that China’s foreign exchange reserves exceed US$1,000 billion, and the country is now the world’s largest holder of foreign exchange. Since its entry into the WTO, China’s total import & export volume has increased to US$1,422.1 billion in 2005 from US$473.5 billion in 2000. In the same period, export value tripled from US$249.2 billion to US$762 billion. According to China Customs’ statistics, foreign trade for 2006 met a new record high at US$ 1,761 billion, up 23.8 % on 2005. The value of exports reached US$ 969 billion, imports reached US$ 791 billion. Statistics also show that exports growth is slightly slowing down (1.2%-points lower than 2005), while growth of import is increasing (2.4%-points up).

2. China’s furniture industry in the last five years

China’s furniture industry has witnessed high-speed development in the last five years, during which a complete production system and sizeable manufacturing capability have been set up. 2005 has seen a historical peak in output growth with the total production value reaching RMB340 billion (US$42 billion), up 28% compared with the previous year. The average growth rate for the last five years exceeds 20%.

China’s furniture exports for 2005 was valued at US$13.76 billion, up by 33% on 2004 and about four times more than in 2000. In comparison to the export figures, the total import of furniture, valued at US$0.68 billion for the year 2005, is still very small, but is gaining momentum as China’s furniture import duty has been reduced to zero.

For 2006 the trends remain: According to customs statistics, from January to November 2006 China’s furniture export value stands at US$15.75 billion, showing that growth is slower. China’s furniture import value is on a straight upward trend with a total US$0.8 billion expected for 2006 (up 18%).

For 2007, China’s total furniture production value is estimated to reach RMB435 billion ( US$55.8 billion) with growth close to 27%.

3. Features of China’s furniture industry

In summarizing the development of China’s furniture industry for the past five years, eight features can be identified, including both the common rules features of a developing industry and the distinctive “Chinese features”.

1. With the size of the industry increasing, a complete production system has been established. The availability of necessary supplies and technology has laid a solid foundation for the next five years’ development.

2. Product quality has improved significantly; enterprises are able to manufacture medium, high and top quality products, thus putting China on the map of international sourcing and outsourcing and OEM manufacturing.

3. Furniture design is gaining importance – the industry is increasingly investing into creativity and innovation. While young Chinese furniture designers are making their first appearance, famous international designers are also actively hired by China’s big furniture enterprises to apply international design trends.

4. The Chinese furniture industry has formed regional clusters all over China, with major importance in the provinces of Guangzhou, Shandong and Jiangsu. Northern China is catching up, specializing in solid wood and metal furniture (Hebei Province).

5. The management level of enterprises has greatly improved. With the appearance of highly professional managers, the industry is modernizing, moving away from family-run to modern management structures. Companies are upgrading their manufacturing technology and IT-infrastructures.

6. The world furniture industry continues shifting to China. In the meantime, exports are diversifying, increasing the scope of products and import countries. Companies manufacturing in China are now exporting to over 200 countries.

7. China’s furniture exhibition industry maintains a growing momentum and remains a driving force in increasing trade relations. The China International Furniture Expo in Shanghai has become a show of international recognition – its visitor and exhibitor figures growing by 20-30% annually.

8. China’s furniture distribution has also been upgraded with furniture shopping malls of different sizes and quality levels being built nationwide, providing an ever-increasing distribution network and covering the increasing domestic demand.

More About The China International Furniture Exhibition:
+ Next stop in September: China International Furniture Exhibition

Next stop in September: China International Furniture Exhibition

2007-08-20T10:11:00.000-07:00

Shanghai, April 10th: Asia’s landmark event for the furniture industry is getting ready for business in autumn, when it will open its doors from 12-15 September in Shanghai.As the first significant international event after the summer break in Europe, Furniture China returns with 1,600 exhibitors on 220,000 sq.m. exhibition space.Featuring Asia’s best designs and quality products, the show is expected to draw over 70,000 visitors, including 12,000 international buyers.

In an attempt to balance growth, available exhibition space and visitors’ convenience, the organisers have appointed two venues to take pressure from the overbooked Shanghai New International Expo Centre (SNIEC).The new venues, Pudong Exhibition Centre and the ShanghaiScience & TechnologyMuseum, are located at a maximum of ten minutes’ drive from SNIEC.All venues are connected by shuttle buses and are most convenient to reach by public transportation or taxi.

The lack of exhibition space will be relieved in 2008 with two additional exhibition halls scheduled to be finished at SNIEC, adding 23,000 sq.m. of floor space.Three more halls, with a floor space of 35,000 sq.m. will be completed in 2009 and another set of three in 2010.It is expected that the 17th China International Furniture Expo in 2011 will become a show of about 350,000 sq.m., then being the world’s second largest furniture show.

Despite the show’s name, Furniture China’s exhibitors are increasingly international, with many companies from Southeast Asia taking part, shifting the focus from “China-made” towards “Asia-made”.Exhibitors from Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia have confirmed their participation.Support from Western countries is also growing, with Italian, French and American companies targeting the domestic high-end market, as well as international buyers from China’s neighbouring countries.

A survey revealed that most visitors are visiting Furniture China because of its broad range of exhibits and the high quality of exhibitors, the majority considering Furniture China as a “must-visit” event.When comparing Furniture China to other exhibitions in China, visitors highlighted the quality of exhibitors’ and products’, the venue’s excellent connection to the airport and public transportation and the services offered by the organiser.

In an attempt to further upgrade services for exhibitors and visitors, Furniture China has launched the b2b platform www.furnitureinchina.com, providing a 365-day on-line forum for the trade, offering exhibitors and visitors ample opportunities to get into business ahead of Furniture China Exhibition.
– END –

For further information contact:CMP Sinoexpo, Ms Yolanda Xu
yolandaxu@cmpsinoexpo.com
tel +86 21 6437 1178

The Status of China’s Furniture Industry

and its Imports and Exports

The production and export of China’s furniture (2004—2006, Unit: US$100 million)

The last three years have witnessed the continuous increase in yearly production of China’s furniture industry and the growth rate for exports has shown a decrease year by year. It reflects the growing consumer potential for China’s domestic market. Signs of a slow down of furniture export growth have appeared.

Major country/region of China’s furniture export (2004—2006, Unit: US$100 million)

The top ten importing countries for Chinese furniture are: US, Japan, UK, Canada, Australia, Germany, Holland, Korea, France and Spain (Hong Kong and Taiwan regions not included).

Production base distribution of China’s furniture exports

The major production bases of China’s furniture for export are the “Zhujiang River Delta” in South China and “Yangtze River Delta” in East China with the former accounting for 40 per cent of China’s furniture exports, totalling US$7 billion and the latter for 45 per cent, totalling US$8.3 billion. Both regions have traditional superiority for export.

The growth rate of the furniture industry in East China in 2006 was 47.5 per cent, slightly higher than the 40.4 per cent in South China.

The dragon head area of China’s furniture industry is “expanding from the south to the north”, namely from “Zhujiang River Delta” to “Yangtze River Delta”.The next hot spot will be the Bohai rim region, covering Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and North East China area.

The speed of China’s furniture exports will slow down

The slow down of exports is caused by the following three reasons:

The continuously increasing labour cost in mainland China
The appreciation of RMB currency
Chinese government policies to encourage increase of imports and decrease of exports to balance trade.

Imports to China increased by 17.14 per cent

According to China Customs statistics, the total volume of China’s imported furniture for 2006 is US$800 million, up by 17.14 per cent compared to the previous year. China has a much bigger market for European furniture. China is now among the biggest markets for European luxury products. However, slow furniture exportation to China is mainly caused by the growing strength of the Euro.For instance, in the China market, a set of ordinary sofas imported from Europe will cost as much as an ordinary car. Therefore, the future development of European furniture depends on manufacturers producing furniture at more competitive prices.

The 5th China(Guangzhou) International Shoe Fair Statistics 2006

2007-08-20T01:45:00.000-07:00

Fair Statistics

2006 Autumn Shoes Trade Fair, running opposite to the 100th Canton Fair, is currently the greatest professional shoes fair, covering an area of 12,000. There are 402 exhibitors totally, who are mainly from China shoe-manufacturing bases, such as Guangdong(Dongguan&Guangzhou), Fujian(Jinjiang), Zhejiang(Wenzhou&Wenling) and Sichuan(Chengdu). There are also some from Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Hongkong. In addition, enterprises from Thailand, Malaysia in Southeast Asia area are also attracted to exhibit in our fair.

Sales Distribution of the Exhibits (Multi-choice Question)

Item	Mainland	Asia	Europe	America	Africa	Others
Percentage	5.37	40.08	90.50	66.94	42.15	1.24

Analysis on Exhibits (Multi-choice Question)

Item	Men Dress Shoes	Ladies Dress Shoes	Sports Shoes	Casual Shoes	Children Shoes	Indoor Shoes &Slippers;	Functional Shoes	Others
Percentage	24.62	39.48	26.8	27.8	19.5	12.4	9.76	3.91

2007 China Alumnium Travel Information

2007-08-18T01:01:00.000-07:00

Venue Name：
Shanghai New International Expo Centre (SNIEC)The Shanghai New International Expo Centre (SNIEC) currently has 9 exhibition halls with 103,500 square meters of indoor exhibition space and 100,000 square meters of outdoor exhibition space. Situated in Shanghai’s Pudong district, the New International Expo Centre is adjacent to the Century Park, 600m away from the Longyang Rd subway station and only a 7 minutes ride by Meglev train from Shanghai Pudong International Airport.

Venue Address：
No. 2345 Longyang Rd., Pudong, Shanghai, PRC

Transportation：
A. From Pudong International Airport to SNIEC
1. Taxi：around 40 minutes
2.Take the Airport Shuttle Bus Line 3 to the Longyang Road StationTake the Airport Shuttle Bus Line 7 to the Longyang Road Station
3.Take the Meglev Train at the Waiting Hall of Pudong International Airport to the Longyang Road Station

B. From Hongqiao International Airport to SNIEC

1.Taxi: around 45 minutes
2. Take the Airport Bus Line 3 at Yangtze Grand Hotel to the Longyang Road Station

C. From Shanghai Railway Station to SNIEC

1. Take Metro Line 2 of Shanghai Underground at Renmin Square Station to Longyang Road Station
2. Taxi: around 30 minutes

D. Car Park
Parking areas available at East and West side of SNIEC, 1500 parking spaces in total.

The Map of Venue:
Shopping & Entertainment Nearby
Metro Jinjiang Cash & Carry +86 21 68928888
B & Q 8008201817
Lotus Supercentre +86 21 58731228
Orient Pearl Tower +86 21 58792303
Shanghai Ocean Aquarium +86 21 58779988
Shanghai Science & Technology Museum +86 21 68622000
Century Park +86 21 58337206
Tourist Information & Service Centre +86 21 64397170/64398947

More about the 2007 China Alumnium
+ China may release energy consumption standards for nonferrous metals
+ ALUMINIUM CHINA 2007 Introduction

China may release energy consumption standards for nonferrous metals

2007-08-15T18:26:00.000-07:00

Shanghai. August 9. INTERFAX-CHINA - The Chinese government is considering releasing energy consumption standards for nonferrous metals next month in an attempt to curb heavy energy consumption in the nonferrous metals sector, an industrial official told Interfax today.

Energy consumption standards will be set for the production of eight types of nonferrous metal, including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel, magnesium, tin and antimony, as well as for two semi-finished products, namely aluminum alloy construction profile and copper tube, which all together consume more than 80 percent of the energy for the whole nonferrous metals industry, senior China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association official, Cao Baokui, said.

"The CNMIA recently drew up draft energy consumption standards for 10 nonferrous metal products. The National Development and Reform Commission will grant approval in September at the earliest, so the standard could come into effect as early as next year," Cao said.

Cao also commented that the central government is likely to shut down facilities, request technology upgrades or charge higher power prices to companies that do not meet the standards. However, "specific sanctions for companies that disregard the standards will not be released until later," he added.

Source:www.interfax.cn

ALUMINIUM CHINA 2007 Introduction

2007-08-15T09:38:00.000-07:00

ALUMINIUM CHINA 2007 will be held on the 28th-30th August, 2007 at the Shanghai New International Expo Centre – Asia’s most advanced exhibition center. Covering an area of 20,000 sqm and with an estimated 300 exhibitors and 8000 visitors, this latest edition will likely become the year’s most influential Aluminium exhibition for the world aluminium industry.

With China fast becoming the leading consumer of the aluminium material and its undeniable status as a waking Giant in the sectors of aluminium production and processing, now is the perfect time for the world to come to China. As a part of the renowned ALUMINIUM event series now dominating the European, American and Asian markets, ALUMINIUM CHINA will utilize the its full resources in terms of the event series’ industry database and association support as well as its extensive marketing network to gather the world aluminium community in shanghai for a truly world class gathering that no one with an eye on Asia should miss.

Show Date: 28-30 August 2007

Venue: Shanghai New International Expo Centre

Edition: 3nd

Show Rotation: Annual

Admission: Free admission for trade professionals.

Organised by: Reed Exhibitions (China) Limited

Co-organised by: Reed Exhibitions Deutschland GmbH

Co-organised by: Beijing Antaike Investment Consulting Co., Ltd.

Supported by: China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association

No. of Exhibitors: 300 exhibiting companies (estimated)

No. of Visitors: 8000 professional visitors (estimated)

Hall Space: 20,000 sqm

Conference: International Forum on Aluminium

More Information about ALUMINIUM CHINA 2007, please pay attention to lorylxw.blogspo.com

Frequently Asked Questions about Canton Fair

2007-08-09T09:25:00.000-07:00

1. Questions concerning the application for invitations

How could an overseas company's representative office in China mainland apply for an Invitation Card? What kind of information is essential for the application?
Chinese employees in overseas company's representative offices in China mainland are requested to apply to CECF Foreign Liaison Department for invitation card by presenting such documents (copy form acceptable) as Business Certificate, Employee Certificate and ID Card, at least two months in advance. Registration is accepted on the strength of the invitation card (on the one-person, one-card basis) extended by the Fair and the documents required.
Foreign employees in overseas company's representative offices in China mainland follow the same application procedure as mentioned in question, namely, his or her company's name, detailed company address as well as contacting numbers.

Could an overseas business person visit the Canton fair without an Invitation? Yes but the person has to pay RMB 110 or HKD 100 service charge, which is valid for 12 days.

When is the deadline for the application?
March 30 (Autumn Fair) and September 30 (Autumn Fair)

Could an application be transmitted in the way of e-mail, fax besides post? Yes. An overseas businessperson could submit his or her application through fax, mail as well as e-mail as long as it contains the essential information required.

Could a valid invitation card be sent in the way of e-mail, fax besides post? Normally an invitation card is sent out by post. In case of emergence, the Fair may send a card through fax and the fax copy of the card is acceptable. However transmitting an invitation card through e-mail is the least desirable one and is rarely used.

How many business people could share one card?
Up to three businesspeople from the same company can share one invitation card.

If over 3 persons from the same company would visit the Fair, how could them notify the issuing institution of the Fair for the extra card?
Just specify in fax, mail or e-mail the number of people attending the fair.

If an overseas business person has got one Invitation Card and he or she would like to invite a local agent or friend to accompany him or her to visit the fair, is the card valid still for that Chinese citizen? Could a Chinese citizen visit the Fair on an individual basis?
No. Only a Chinese citizen working in an overseas company's representative office in China mainland could visit the Fair. In case a Chinese employee in a overseas company's representative office has got no Invitation Card from the Fair organizer, he or she has to present the copies of three identification papers and pay RMB 200 per day for the service charge.

How could an overseas business person get a visitor's card?
Fair visitors should get registered before they visit the Fair and have their Visitor Cards stamped and confirmed upon registration at Gate 1 of the Fair Complex. Access to the Fair is granted only to those with confirmed Visitor Cards. Documents required at registration include:
Invitation Card extended by the Fair.
Personal papers ( passport, H.K./Macao I.D. Card or Residence Permit, Taiwan Compatriot Travel Certificate, or a Chinese passport with at least one-year foreign visa ).
Business Card.
A most recent personal photo. ( 5cmx4cm )

2. Questions concerning the visa applications

How could an overseas businessperson apply for a visa?
Entry visa to Guangzhou is granted against the invitation card. For this purpose, kindly approach the Embassy of P. R. China with the Invitation Card. The following three points should be noticed:
a. In the absence of a Chinese Embassy in your country, kindly approach the Embassy (Consulate) of P. R. China in a neighboring country.
b. Approach the Visa Office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of P. R. China in Hong Kong, if you travel to Guangzhou via that city.

What if an overseas businessperson would like to get a multi-entree visa for his or her convenience?
Please contact the local P. R. China's Embassy (Consulate) for consultance.

3. Questions concerning the reservations for interpreters

Which kind of language service could the Fair provide?
The Fair provide language service for English, French, German, Arabic, Japanese and Spanish.

How to reserve an interpreter for the future use?
Please contact cantonfair.net Team at Tel: 0086-20-37651964,35540308; Fax: 0086-20-37651964 or mail us at rsvn@cantonfair.net in advance and confirm later. If you are not sure about your need, please contact the Registration Office at Gate 1 of the Fair Complex, upon your arrival in Guangzhou.

What if an overseas businessperson brings along an interpreter of his or her own?
The interpreter has to get an interpreter card with RMB 200 charges per day.

4. About Guangzhou

How about the whether during the Fair in Guangzhou?
The average temperature is 21.8 oC during the Autumn Fair, and 23.8 oC during the Autumn Fair. It is warm but quite humid in Oct., and dry, sunny moderate in October.

How about transportation inside Guangzhou?
It is very convenient with a public traffic network consisting of buses, taxis and subway. Many hotels provide Shuttle Buses to and from the fair Complex for business people every day at fixed times during the Fair. When making a reservation, a pre-request on the Shuttle buses during the fair will save you a lot on travel in Guangzhou.

How can I get to Guangzhou via Hong Kong?
You can get to Guangzhou by planes, non-stop express trains, buses and shuttle ferries from Hong Kong. If you are an group, we can provide the special rate for renting busese with different types from Hongkong and send you directly to the destination in Guangzhou, pls contact with us if you have such request.

5. Other Questions

Which time of the year will the Fair be held?
The Fair is held on biannual basis. The spring and autumn fair session will be held for twelve days from Oct. 15th to 20th Noon, Oct. 25th to 30th Noon and October 15th to 20th Noon, October 25th to 30th Noon respectively.

Could a foreign-owned company rent a booth in the Fair to display its exhibits?
The booths in the fair are strictly for Chinese companies, not for lease for foreign companies.
ASM is holding the On-line trade show for the companies not only from China but also abroad. From here, you can find many kinds of products and also send your buying or selling messages. Join the online show NOW.

How to complain?
During the Fair session, complains about the Fair can be done in the Complain Office at the Fair Complex. After the fair complains should be done in the provincial or municipal Foreign Economic Relations and Trade Co-operation Commission of the region where the complained company locates.

Where to get brief information of all the exhibitors?
The Fair have a Directory magazine of all exhibitors. You may find it on the Distribution Bulletin in the East Corridor of Hall 1.

Do the Fair open in the weekend?
Yes. The Fair is open everyday during our 12 days of exhibition.

How can I find the booth number of a particular company?
By our Scan system in the exhibition halls (free for use).

How can I find a particular kind of products?
By our Scan system in the exhibition halls (free for use).

Where is the Moslem worship?
Right outside Gate 6 of the Fair Complex or Huaisheng Temple on the Guangxiao Road.

Where can the Moslem dine?
There's a Moslem restaurant in the fast-food district inside the Fair Complex. Or may go to the Five Lamps Moslem Restaurant at Zhongshan Liu Lu.

What service does the Fair provide specially for the chain stores?
Firstly, in order to save your time of the visit, The Fair will organize the right suppliers with their samples to meet you in our meeting-room when you inform the Fair your detailed schedule and purchase list beforehand. (That is Face-to-Face communication between buyers and sellers.)

Secondly, The Fair can help you host a seminar on the subject that interests you most during the Fair. Such as seminar on the characteristic of a specific market, seminar on the prospects of a product, etc.

All the service concerning the above items is free.

2007 Guangzhou Fair List

2007-08-09T09:19:00.000-07:00

2007 Guangzou Fair

dates	complex address	exhibiition
5-7 June 2007	Pazhou Complex	Renewable Energy Expo
7-9 June 2007	Liuhua Complex	Interwine China
7-9 June 2007	Liuhua Complex	Interfood China
7-18 June 2007	Pazhou Complex	China Hardware Tool Exhibition
8-11 June 2007	Pazhou Complex	Guangzhou International Lighting
8-11 June 2007	Pazhou Complex	Electrical Building Technology Guangzhou (EBTG 2007)
15-18 June 2007	Pazhou Complex	China Hardware Tool Exhibition
15-18 June 2007	Pazhou Complex	GIMT + AMB China
19-21 June 2007	Pazhou Complex	RFID China
19-21 June 2007	Pazhou Complex	Modernshop China
19-21 June 2007	Pazhou Complex	Guangzhou Commercial Vehicle Exhibition
21-23 June 2007	Pazhou Complex	2007
21-23 June 2007	Pazhou Complex	Canton Textile Machinery
28-30 June 2007	Pazhou Complex	Hosfair
28-30 June 2007	Liuhua Complex	Guangzhou International Automobile Exhibition lamps
4-6 July 2007	Pazhou Complex	Biotechnology China
6-9 July 2007	Pazhou Complex	China Building & Decoration Fair (CBD 2007)
16-19 July 2007	Pazhou Complex	The 14th South China International Machinery and Mold Exhibition
3-5 August 2007	Pazhou Complex	The 5th International Pro Sound & Light + Musical Instruments Expo (SLM Expo) China (Guangzhou) 2007
5-7 September 2007	Baiyun International Convention Center	China International Water Congress & Exhibition (CIWCE 2007)
19-21 September 2007	Guangzhou New Stadium Exhibition Center	The 7th (International) medical equipment exhibition China (Guangzhou)
20-21 September 2007	Liuhua Complex	The 7th South China (Guangzhou) International industrial exhibitions wood floor 2007
15-19 October 2007	Pazhou Complex	Guangzhou Shoe Fair
23-27 October 2007	Guangzhou Jinhan Exhibition Center	EXPO COMM CHINA SOUTH
15-30 October 2007	Pazhou Complex	Chinese Export Commodities Fair
1-3 December 2007	World of Flowers Exhibition Center	IPM China
4-7 December 2007	Pazhou Complex	hydraulic seals and pneumatic air compressor exhibition Asian 2007
4-7 December 2007	Pazhou Complex	CONEXPO Asia 2007
12-13 December 2007	Guangzhou Jinhan Exhibition Center	FRANCHISING CHINA - Guangzhou
13-14 December 2007	Liuhua Complex	The 8th-China National Refrigeration HVAC Equipment Exhibition
13-14 December 2007	Guangzhou Jinhan Exhibition Center	Informex China
13-16 December 2007	Guangzhou Jinhan Exhibition Center	2007 second sector of China (Guangzhou) International Exhibition luxury
14-16 December 2007	Pazhou Complex	14th Guangzhou International Hotel Equipment Fair
19-21 December 2007	Pazhou Complex	China Sign Fair
20-26 December 2007	Pazhou Complex	Auto Guangzhou
21-24 December 2007	Liuhua Complex	All In Glass

Visa Application

2007-08-06T06:52:00.000-07:00

Entry visa to China is granted against the official invitation extended by the Canton Fair. Please go to the Embassy or Consulate General of P. R. China with the Invitation to get the visa. There are four more options:

1. In case of the absence of a Chinese Embassy in your country, kindly approach the Embassy of P. R. China in a neighboring country.

2. Visa Section , Office of the Commissioner of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC in the Hong Kong SAR. More Info>>>>;

ADD: 7th Floor, Lower Block, China Resources Building, 26 Harbour Road, Wanchai District, Hong Kong SAR
TEL: 852-3413 2424
Fax: 852-3413 2312

3. Fair visitors can also entrust the visa application to China Travel Service (Hong Kong) Ltd.

ADD: 1/F., Alpha House, 27-33 Nathan Rd., Kowloon, Hong Kong
TEL: 852-2315 7150
Fax: 852-2315 7292

4. During the Fair, visitors who leave Mainland China and want to come back to Guangzhou may apply for re-entry visa to the Visa Section for Aliens of the Commissioner mentioned in Item 2 or Division of Aliens and Exit-Entry Administration of Guangzhou Municipal Public Security Bureau (Add: No.155 Jie Fang Nan Road, Guangzhou.)

Canton Fair Travelling Service

2007-08-05T08:40:00.000-07:00

Entrusted by the Fair, China Travel Service (Hong Kong) Ltd., as well as its overseas branches, will provide travelling service to the Fair Buyers; The Fair also entrusts Canton Fair International Travel Agency Co., Ltd. to offer domestic travelling services to the visitors. You can contact at:

Branches	Contact
China Travel Service (Hong Kong) Ltd. Overseas Tourist Department	Tel: (852) 23157150 Fax: (852) 23157292 E-mail: ctsottst@ctshk.com
Singa China Travel Service Pte. Ltd.	Tel: (65) 65329988 Fax: (65) 65386068
China Travel Service (Thailand) Co., Ltd.	Tel: (66-2) 2260041, 2264701-11 Fax: (66-2) 2264712-3
China Travel Service (Philippines) Inc.	Tel: (63-2) 7341464 Fax: (63-2) 7331431
China Travel Service (Korea) Co., Ltd.	Tel: (82-2) 7523399 Fax:(82-2) 7573737
China Travel Service (Japan) Co., Ltd.	Tel: (81-3) 32735512 Fax:(81-3) 32732667
China Travel Service (Japan) Co., Ltd. kansai Branch	Tel: (81-6) 48038332 Fax:(81-6) 48038321
China Travel Service (USA) Inc.	Tel: (1-415) 3520388 Fax:(1-415) 3520399
U. S. China Travel Service Inc. (Los Angeles Office)	Tel: (1-626) 4578668 Fax:(1-626) 4578955
China Travel Service (Canada) Inc.	Tel: (1-604) 8728787 (1-800) 6631126 Fax: (1-604) 8732823
China Travel Service (Canada) Inc. (Toronto Office)	Tel: (1-416) 9798993 (1-800)3876622 Fax:(1-416) 9798220
China Travel Service (Aust.) Pty. Ltd.	Tel: (61-2) 92112633 Fax:(61-2) 92813595,92817703
China Travel Service (Aust.) Pty. Ltd. (Melbourne Office)	Tel: (61-3) 96421088 Fax:(61-3) 96425833
China Travel Service (N.Z.) Pty. Ltd. (Auckland)	Tel: (64-9) 3096458 Fax:(64-9) 3096459
China Travel Service (N.Z.) Pty. Ltd. (Christchurch Office)	Tel: (64-3) 3656396 Fax:(64-3) 3656390
China Travel Service (U. K.) Ltd.	Tel: (44-20) 78369911 Fax:(44-20)73791218
China Travel Service (France) S. A. R. L.	Tel: (33-1)44515566 Fax:(33-1)44515560
China Travel & Trading (Deutschland) GmbH	Tel: (49-69) 23852233 Fax:(49-69) 231095
China Travel & Trading (Deutschland) GmbH (Berlin Office)	Tel: (49-30) 3934068, 3930535 Fax:(49-30)3918085
China Travel & Trading (Deutschland) GmbH (Airport Office)	Tel: (49-69) 69867888 Fax:(49-69)69719938
Special Asia Travel AB	Tel: (46-8) 53481177 Fax:(46-8)53481178
Canton Fair International Travel Agency Co., Ltd.	Tel: 86-20-86671722/26082111 Fax: 86-20-86681714/26082113 E-mail: cantonfair.tour.1@vip.tom.com

Hotel Information

Name	Star	Room Rates (RMB)				Distance (km)
Name	Star	Single	Twin	Suite	Breakfast	Baiyun Airport	Liuhua Complex	Pazhou Complex
● China Hotel	5	3500 (Twin)	3700 (Business)		215	30	0	28
● Dong Fang Hotel	5		3500	4000	135	30	0	28
● White Swan Hotel	5		2800	4000	216.2	40	6	17
● GD International Hotel	5	2300	2440	2740	Free	35	4	15
● Garden Hotel	5		3800	5000	200	28	3	8
● The Phoenix City Hotel Guangzhou	5	1900 (Twin)	2200	3100	Free	70	45	35
● Chime Long Hotel	5		2200	3300	Free	60	30	15
● Foshan Hotel (Foshan)	5		1420	2400	Free	50	35	30
● Jia Hua Grand Hotel (Dongguan)	5		1000	1200	Free	80	80	60
● Cinese Hotel (Dongguan)	5	890	930		Free	80	55	35
Parkview hotel (Dongguan)	5		880	1900	80	100	90	90
Sheraton Dongguan Hotel (Dongguan)	5		1300	1900	100	80	60	70
Novotel Baiyun Airport Guangzhou	5	1481 (Twin)	1596	3091	113	0	30	40
● Ramada Pearl Hotel GZ	4	2243	2415	3048	Free	35	15	8
● Hotel Landmark Canton	4		1950	2500	138	35	7	15
● Ocean Hotel	4		1680	1980	Free	28	3	8
Riverside Hotel	4	2000 (Twin)	2200	3400	108	35	7	15
● China Mayors' Tower	4		2000	2300	Free	40	10	8
Globelink Hotel	4	1500 (Twin)	1630	2200	88	45	4	11
● Best Western GZ Baiyun Hotel	4		2100	2900	98	35	5	25
● Guangdong Victory Hotel	4	1450 (Twin)	1640		128	40	3	15
Holiday Inn City Centre	4		2400		230	35	10	15
Golden City Hotel (Foshan)	4		780		Free	50	35	30
● Panyu Hotel	4		1100		Free	65	35	20
Ever Profit Hotel (Foshan)	4	660 (Twin)	690	1230	Free	75	55	70
Golden Bridge Hotel	4		1600		Free	35	15	8
Huashi (GDH) Hotel	4	1130 (Twin)	1330		68	35	7	3
Baihua Resort Hotel (Zengcheng)	4	480 (Twin)	580	980	38	70	65	60
Jin Yuan Hotel Guangzhou	3	1450 (Twin)	1650	2100	Free	25	15	6
● New Mainland Hotel	3		1280		88	30	1	30
● Guangzhou Hotel	3		1400	1650	Free	30	4	8
Lido Hotel	3		940		55	60	3	20
New World Hotel	3		880		Free	60	3	15
Overseas Chinese Friendship Hotel	3	900 (Twin)	1000		Free	25	6	3
Overseas Chinese Hotel	3		1400		45	25	1	12
Chancheng Hotel (Foshan)	3	784 (Twin)	1023		Free	45	23	35
Ying Feng Business Hotel	3	850 (Twin)	800		Free	80	15	5
Guangdong Hotel	2		650			35	3	20
New Hua Hotel	2		650		Free	35	3	20

Note: Room rates for reference only. Please consult upon reservation.
Hotels marked with " ● " provide registration service.

Recruitment of the Agent for Internatioanl Pavilion of the 102nd Session of China Import and Export Fair

2007-08-04T19:54:00.000-07:00

To whom it may concern,The 101st China Import and Export Fair(Canton Fair for short) firstly set up International Pavilion. 314 overseas enterprises from 36 countries and regions attended the pavilion and achieved satisfactory business results.

The scale of the international pavilion continually set up at the 102nd Canton Fair will be enlarged. More high qualified overseas enterprises are welcome to attend as exhibitors to tap Chinese market. The International Pavilion of the 102nd Canton Fair recruit exhibitors by entrusting agents and accepting direct application from enterprises.

We welcome well-known and influential overseas industrial and commercial organizations， exhibition companies and enterprises who have experience in organizing exhibition to apply to be the Agent of the 102nd Session of the Canton Fair . If your organization has an interest in being an agent of organizing exhibitors to attend the Fair, you can apply on line by filling in the attached 'Agency Application Form for International Pavilion of the 102 Session of China Import and Export Fair'. A prompt reply from your association is most appreciated.

For further information, please feel free to contact Mr. Charles Cao or Ms Camilla Ma of Foreign Liaison Dept. of China Foreign Trade Centre.

Tel: 86-20-26080909 Fax: 86-20-83335880

Yours sincerely,

China Foreign Trade Centre

Enclosed: Agency Application Form for International Pavilion of the 102 Session of China Import and Export Fair

Articles about 101st China Import and Export Fair:
+ Good going for Shanghai firms
+ Canton Fair opens 101st session, seeking trade balance
+ 2007 China Canton Fair Phase II
+ 2007 China Canton Fair Phase I
+ UN Seeks Suppliers at 2007 China Canton Fair
+ Guangzhou Hotels near Pazhou International Exhibition Centre
+ Must-know Information for Your Guangzhou Canton Fair Trip
+ A Brief Introduction to the Exhibition in Guangzhou Conton Fair
+ Business Tips in Guangzhou
+ How to get to Guangzhou from Hong Kong?
+ How to get to Canton Fair when you arriving in Guangzhou
+ Take Metro to Canton Fair
+ International Airlines
+ Hotel Rates Guiding Policy By Guangzhou Government During the100th Session of Chinese Export Commodities Fair
+ The Least Developed Countries Listed By the United Nations
+

Notice of Exhibitor Recruitment of International Pavilion

2007-08-04T19:28:00.000-07:00

Please refer to this notice for the exhibitor recruitment of International Pavilion of the 102nd Session of China Import and Export Fair (hereinafter referred to as Canton Fair).

1. Exhibition Time(GMT+8)

Stand construction and exhibits move-in: Oct 9-13, 2007
Exhibition: Oct 15-20, 2007
Stand dismantling and exhibits move-out: 6:00 p.m., Oct 20-11:00 p.m., Oct 21, 2007.

2. Exhibition Venue

Hall 21.2 & Hall 22.2, Pazhou Complex, China Import and Export Fair,
No.380 Yuejiangzhong Road, Guangzhou, China

3.Exhibition Space

Gross exhibition space: 20,000 sqm

4.Exhibits

The exhibits fall into 10 exhibition subsections:
4.1 Machinery and Equipment
4.2 Small Vehicles and Spare Parts
4.3 Electronics, IT Products and Household Electrical Appliances
4.4 Hardware and Tools
4.5 Building Materials and Kitchen and Sanitary equipment
4.6 Raw Materials
4.7 Consumer Goods
4.8 Decorations and Gifts
4.9 Jewelry
4.10 Foodstuffs and Agricultural Products

5. Stand Rate

Raw space: 3,000 RMB per sqm
Standard stand: 30,000 RMB (9 sqm with standard facilities)
The Canton Fair will offer free stands or 25% discount to overseas exhibitors in order to support the overseas enterprises to participate. The preferential conditions are as follows:
5.1 Exhibitors from the least developed countries listed by the United Nations will be offered stands for free. (For detailed name list, please refer to attachment 1.)
5.2 Exhibitors from other countries and regions will enjoy a 25% off, i.e., raw space of the International Pavilion will be 2,250 RMB per sqm, and a single standard stand (9 sqm with standard facilities) will be 22,500 RMB.

6.Application for Participation

6.1 Qualifications for Application
All overseas enterprises which meet the requirements of Participation Provisions (see attachment 2) can apply for participation.
6.2 How to Apply
Enterprises can apply directly to the China Foreign Trade Centre (hereinafter referred to as CFTC), or apply via agents entrusted by CFTC for participation. (For Participation Application Form, please refer to attachment 3.)
6.3 Standards and Organizing Principles for Agents
Those who meet the following requirements can apply to the CFTC for acting as agents for the International Pavilion of the 102nd Session of the Canton Fair:
6.31 Commercial organizations or exhibition companies from outside mainland China who are experienced, influential, credible and with ability to organize overseas exhibitor within their own regions and industries.
6.32 Commercial chambers of commerce and associations or large enterprises inside mainland China who are experienced, influential, credible and with ability to organize overseas enterprises to participate the fair.
6.33 There will be no more than one agent in one region or in one industry. All agents are first grade agents. No subcontract is allowed by any means.
6.34 In principle, each agent will be responsible for at least 500 square meters of net space.
To avoid business cross, on the basis of the ability of each agent, the China Foreign Trade Centre will segment the market and exhibit category reasonably. The validity of agent entrustment is only for the 102nd session. The agency cooperation in the future will depend on the quality of the current agents and the new arrangement of the International Pavilion. The current agent will be given priority for the agency cooperation under the same conditions.
6.4 Time for Stand Application
6.41 The deadline for agent application is June 30, 2007. Upon the receipt of the application, the CFTC will decide the name list of the agents of International Pavilion of the 102nd session of the Canton Fair before July 6, 2007 and sign the Agent Agreement with them.
6.42 The deadline for stand application is August 10, 2007. Upon the receipt of the application, the CFTC will send the Notice of Stand Confirmation before August 20, 2007.
6.5 Contact
6.51 For enterprises who apply to CFTC directly (except the Least Developed Countries Listed by the United Nations) and exhibition companies from outside mainland China who wish to be agents of the International Pavilion, please contact: Mr. Li Dewei, China Foreign Trade Guangzhou Exhibition Corp, Tel: 0086-20-26081862, Fax:0086-20-86680925－31, Email:cief@fairwindow.com.
6.52 Enterprises from the Least Developed Countries Listed by the United Nations who apply to CFTC directly, or industrial and commercial organizations from outside mainland China, who wish to be agents of the International Pavilion, please contact: Mr. Zhao Jianqing, Foreign Liaison Department, China Foreign Trade Centre, Tel: 0086-20-26080909, Fax:0086-20-83335880, Email: ciefexhibit@cantonfair.org.cn
6.53 For chambers of commerce and associations and large enterprises in China, who wish to be agents of the International Pavilion, please contact: Mr. Zhang Cheng, Operation Department, China Foreign Trade Centre, Tel: 0086-20-26080812, Fax: 0086-20-86681600, Email: imagent@cantonfair.org.cn.
Attachment 1. Least Developed Countries Listed by the United Nations Download PDF
Attachment 2. Participation Provisions 1 Download PDF
Participation Provisions 2 (applicable to enterprises from the least developed countries listed by the United Nations) Download PDF
Attachment 3. Participation Application Form for the International Pavilion of the 102nd Session of China Import and Export Fair
· Participation Application Form1 Download PDF
· Participation Application Form2(this form is applicable to enterprises from the least developed countries listed by the United Nations) Download PDF

Tips:Download and install the Adobe Reader to read the PDF files

[sourcehttp://www.cantonfair.org.cn/en/info/imp/zhaozhan102.htm]

The Agents of the International Pavilion of the 102nd Session of China Import and Export Fair

2007-08-04T07:54:00.000-07:00

Agency Name		Contact Person	Telephone	Fax	Email
China National Machinery Industry Corporation (SINOMACH)	China National Automotive Industry International Corporation	Zhu Xiaopeng	86-10-82606993	86-10-82606898	zhuxiaopeng@cnaico.com.cn
	China National Automotive Industry Import and Export Corporation	Li Xiao	86-10-82379070	86-10-82379088,86-10-82379188	lixiao_caiec@yahoo.com.cn
	China National Machinery & Equipment Import & Export Corporation	Wu Chupeng	86-10-82686998	86-10-82686060	panbb@mail.cmec.com
		Pan Bingbing	86-10-82686286	86-10-82686060	panbb@mail.cmec.com
Association of Economy and Trade Across Taiwan Straits		Li Na	86-10-85226867	86-10-85226018	lnln@vip.163.com
		Li Na	13910083825	86-10-85226018	lnln@vip.163.com
		Fan Yuqiong	86-10-85226249	86-10-85226018	ijoan@hotmail.com
		Fan Yuqiong	13911109851	86-10-85226018	ijoan@hotmail.com
Hong Kong Trade Development Council		Sunny Chau	852-25844556	852-21699420	sunny.ys.chau@tdc.org.hk
Hong Kong Trade Development Council		May Lam	852-25844171	852-21699470	may.lam@tdc.org.hk
China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products		Guo Kuilong	86-10-58280946	86-10-58280930,86-10-58280958	guokuilong@cccme.org.cn
		Sun Yan	86-10-58280959	86-10-58280930,86-10-58280958	sunyan@cccme.org.cn
Ningbo Foreign Enterprises Service & Trade Co., Ltd		Peng Hongwei	86-574-87178309	86-574-87306150	penghongwei@nbfesco.com

Shanghai International Congress & Exhibition on Orthopaedics

2007-07-18T09:21:00.000-07:00

Start Date: 23-AUG-07
End Date: 26-AUG-07
Venue:Shanghai Everbright Convention & Exhibition Centre
City / State:Shanghai, Shanghai
Country:China

Event Profile:
Shanghai International Congress & Exhibition on Orthopaedics will be one of the most professional, international and richest academic congresses.

Highlights:
During this congress, organizers will invite many of the famous professors from overseas as well as domestic to give lectures.

Visitor's Profile:
Pharma Formulators, API, Drug Intermediates, Excipients, Natural Extracts, Contract Researchers, Custom Manufacturers, Packaging Equipment / Materials, Quality Assurance & Control, Product Development Services, Laboratory & Processing Equipment Manufacturers, Trade Publications, Contract Research, Contract Processing are the target audience.

Exhibitor's Profile:
Profile for exhibit include Pharmaceutical Processing & Packaging Plants / Equipments / Machinery, Biotechnology, R & D Institutions, Additives, Drug Intermediates, Analytical Laboratory Supplies, Environment Control Equipment & Services, Utility, Utility Services & Maintenance, Contractors - Turnkey Consultancy Service, Trade Associations / Publications, Computer Software Formulations, Contract Manufacturing, Alternate Medicines.

Korea Machinery Fair-Shanghai (KOMAF Shanghai)

2007-07-18T09:07:00.000-07:00

Start Date: 25-JUL-07
End Date: 28-JUL-07
Venue:Shanghai New International Expo Centre
City / State:Shanghai, Shanghai
Country:China

Event Profile:
Korea Machinery Fair-Shanghai (KOMAF Shanghai) is designed to bring buyers and sellers together for three days of productive interaction. This is just rightly timed as one-stop-destination for all kinds of machinery to be sourced from.

Visitor's Profile:
Design engineers, machinists, top-level management, production managers, facilities and maintenance personnel, & other related industry professionals & General Public are the targer visitors.

Exhibitor's Profile:
Profile for exhibit include metalcutting & metalforming machines, measuring equipment, EDM, tooling CAD/CAM, lasers, cutting tools, drilling, finishing and other manufacturing and industrial products.

Shanghai International Machine Tool Fair

2007-07-18T08:59:00.000-07:00

Shanghai International Machine Tool Fair

Start Date: 25-JUL-07
End Date: 28-JUL-07
Venue: Shanghai New International Expo Centre
Cty / State:Shanghai, Shanghai
Country:China

Event Profile:
Shanghai International Machine Tool Fair is where you need to be to see the latest technology solutions in action. EASTPO attendees are able to see the largest display of manufacturing equipment in one location. And, come find solutions to all of your productivity and manufacturing challenges.

Visitor's Profile:
Manufacturing industry professionals from China and from over 60 countries, esp. like Japan, Korea, attend EASTPO. They attend to see more than 8,000 new machine tools, controls, computers, software, components, systems and processes that can improve their efficiency.

Exhibitor's Profile:
Profile for exhibit include Metal Cutting, Flexible Manufacturing Systems and lathes, Tooling & Work holding Systems: Features jigs, fixtures, cutting tools of all types and related accessories, Metal Forming & Fabricating/Laser, coil and strip handling equipment, heat treating, Abrasive Machining /Sawing/Finishing; Controls & CAD ¿CAM; EDM; Gear Generation; Machine Components/ Cleaning/ Environmental; Fluid Power and Quality Assurance.

Furniture Manufacturing & Supply China (FMC 2007)

2007-07-17T08:56:00.000-07:00

Furniture Manufacturing & Supply China (FMC 2007)

Start Date: 12-SEP-07
End Date: 15-SEP-07
Venue:Shan:Shanghai, Shanghaighai New International Expo Centre
City / State:Shanghai, Shanghai
Country:China

Event Profile:
Furniture Manufacturing & Supply China (FMC 2007) is a must see event for all furniture and furnishings retailers, interior designers, interior decorators, architects and product specifiers, Furniture Manufacturing & Supply China features more than 500 manufacturers, wholesalers and designers over a huge 35,000 square metres.

Highlights:
Concurrently with Furniture China, the over 2,000 exhibiting companies in Furniture China are the targeted visitors of Furniture Manufacturing & Supply China, which may offer you an easy and cost effective way to attract more trade visitors. Incorporating ZOW China, the furniture raw materials and supplies section of Furniture Manufacturing & Supply Chinawould be divided into local area and oversea area named as ZOW. In ZOW, only international brand and high standard products are allowed in.

Visitor's Profile:
Architects, Interior Designers / Decorators, Wholesalers, Distributors, Manufacturer, Importers, Exporters of Furniture, Retailers, Agents, Representatives & General Public are the target visitors.

Exhibitor's Profile:
Profile for exhibit include Wooden, Metal, Plastic & Glass Furniture Manufacturing, Spring & Sofa Production, Cuttings & Accessories, Dust Collecting Equipment, Drying Equipment, Spraying & Finishing Equipment, Laminating Equipment, Sanding & Polishing Machinery, Surface Treatment & Finishing, Wood Turning Machinery, Furniture Material & Accessories Supply, Wood & Timber, Furniture Decorating Materials, Paints & Abrasives for furniture making, Adhesive.

China International Aluminum Industry Expo

2007-06-24T08:56:00.000-07:00

Start Date: 01-JUL-07
End Date :05-JUL-07

Venue : Shanghai New International Expo Centre
City / State :Shanghai, Shanghai
Country : China

Event Profile:
China International Aluminum Industry Expo will be an excellent opportunity to disseminate institutionally your company, generate new businesses and introduce products, equipment, services and technological innovations.

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Visitor's Profile:
Decision makers from the manufacturing and processing industry, automotive and transport industry, plant and machinery, metalworking, building and construction, iron and steel, packaging as well as the electronic industry & other related industries are the target visitors.

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Exhibitor's Profile:
Profile for exhibit include Aluminium raw materials, primary metal products, semi-finished products, castings, extruded profiles, surface treatment & joining technology, Plant, machinery & accessories for aluminium manufacturing and processing, light-metals trade & recycling, consultancy, industry experts, information & media and Aluminium finished products.