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A argument has arisen about whether the facility put together last spring to help finance Greece and to cover future bailouts of eurozone nations if they need it is large enough. The package put together by the EU and IMF totaled nearly $1 trillion.
That fund has put nearly $150 billion into Greece. Many capital markets investors believe that will need to be increased in two years. Ireland may need $130 billion, a
lthough the problems with its banks have not been sufficiently analyzed and the outcome of its austerity package remains unknown. Several EU members want Portugal to tap the fund because its cost to raise money has moved up sustainability. And, there is Spain with 20% unemployment and a housing market which gets into more trouble as time passes.
Several analysts have pointed out that the size of the Spanish economy is more than that of Ireland, Greece, and Portugal combined. It is a very crude measurement to determine what Spain may need in terms of money from the EU/IMF facility.
The total obligations to cover the financial needs of the four nations could rise to $600 billion or $700 billion, which would test the current fund. That test could become harder if any of the four nations’ voters reject austerity and vote in legislators opposed to cost cuts. The changes of heart do not mean the nations can dodge the laws of finance. It only means they may push their days of reckoning further into the future, and that would probably mean bigger bailouts.
There are two opposing arguments about the bailout fund size. The first is that the stronger nations of Europe and IMF should save all the troubled nations at once to salvage the euro and undercut the fears of investors. If this were to work, borrowing costs for the region would drop and perhaps the capital markets would return to normal. Countering that is the point of view that a larger bailout fund would lead to more contagion as the weaker nations grab for the money in the facilit! y to plu g the holes in their budgets. That argument against this is simple. Countries which take aide also lose a large portion of their financial sovereignty which is then transferred to the IMF, France, and Germany in exchange for the help.
The foot race is on: can Spain and Portugal convince investors that their budget plans are strong enough to mitigate their needs for capital? Or, will concerns about their financial futures continue to drive the yields on their sovereign paper higher?
There is middle course. It is for each country to raise taxes so rapidly that, if the increases hold, the need for outside capital will drop. Such a move would essentially make the countries self-financing. It might also cause unprecedented labor riots. Tax increases are the other side of the austerity coin. But, there is a long shot that higher receipts to treasuries may be a solution which keeps Spain and Portugal from the need to rely on outside help.

J.M. Smucker Increases Sales but Misses Revenue Estimate

J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM  ) reported earnings on Feb. 16. Here are the numbers you need to know.
The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Jan. 31 (Q3), J.M. Smucker missed estimates on revenues and whiffed on earnings per share.
Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue improved and GAAP earnings per share dropped.
Margins shrank across the board.
Revenue details
J.M. Smucker tallied revenue of $1.47 billion. The 12 analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ predicted a top line of $1.54 billion on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 12% higher than the prior-year quarter's $1.31 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.22. The 15 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ averaged $1.42 per share on the same basis. GAAP EPS of $1.03 for Q3 were 7.2% lower than the prior-year quarter's $1.11 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 32.5%, 490 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 15.8%, 390 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 8.0%, 210 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.
Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $1.35 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.99.
Next year's average estimate for revenue i! s $5.52 billion. The average EPS estimate is $4.68.
Investor sentiment
The stock has a four-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 459 members out of 484 rating the stock outperform, and 25 members rating it underperform. Among 159 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 152 give J.M. Smucker a green thumbs-up, and seven give it a red thumbs-down.
Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on J.M. Smucker is outperform, with an average price target of $81.36.
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Top Stocks To Buy Now - Gold rallies on dollar pullback, Greece

Top Stocks To Buy Now - SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) ? Gold futures rallied Thursday, boosted by a weaker dollar and expectations that central banks will maintain loose monetary policies for some time.

/quotes/zigman/660065 GCJ2 1,775.00, -11.30, -0.63%

Gold for April delivery GCJ2 ?advanced $16.30, or 0.9%, to $1,788.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, trading near session highs.

A day earlier, the metal settled at $1,771.30 an ounce, the highest since mid-November.

Bargain hunters stepped in during the prior session as the metal had eased following disappointment over Chinese data and fading optimism about Greece?s bailout deal.

Open interest, or the number of futures contracts outstanding, has picked up from a month ago ?which helps underpin the technical improvement? of the metal, said George Gero, a vice president with RBC Wealth Management in New York. ?We were looking for ($1,800 an ounce) by June, perhaps we may see if sooner,? he added.

Gold last topped $1,800 an ounce in mid-September after hitting a record $1,891.90 in late August.

Gold?s move! higher Wednesday ?was a reminder, if markets needed it, that central banks are set to remain in accommodative mode for some time to come,? said Michael Hewson, senior market analyst with CMC Markets.

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Top Stocks To Buy Now - Crude oil continues to climb

The price of crude oil has risen about 15% since the start of the year, fuelled by rising tension over Iran and the prospect of improved global growth.

He said the dovish tone from the Bank of England on Wednesday, last week?s stimulus from the Bank of Japan and a new long-term refinancing operation from the European Central Bank next week will increase money supply and underpin gold prices ?for some time to come against most [Group of 10] currencies.?

Top Stocks To Buy Now - Upside targets: $1,800, then $2,000

?The key level on the upside lies at the November highs at $1,801 and if we can push above here, then the record highs last year will come back into view, with the likelihood we could well see levels above $2,000 an ounce within the next 12 months,? said Hewson, in e-mailed comments.

With Fitch Ratings earlier this week lowering Greece?s credit rating, ratings agencies are debating whether to take the same step of further downgrading Greece and rate it as a ?selective default,? analysts at Commerzbank said in a note to clients.

Greek lawmakers also need to ?swiftly rubber-stamp? reform measures, while at the same time it isn?t clear how many private bondholders will agree to the country?s agreed haircut, they added.

?The sovereign-debt crisis is thus likely to keep the market on tenterhooks for some time yet, which should benefit gold,? the analysts said. !

Gold futures also got a boost as the dollar fell versus most major rivals.

A weaker dollar is beneficial for gold and other dollar-denominated commodities as it makes them cheaper to holders of other currencies. The dollar index DXY , which compares the U.S. unit to a basket of six currencies, fell to 78.083 from 79.207 on Wednesday.

The euro EURUSD ?gained against the greenback after the Ifo Institute?s gauge of German business confidence rose more than forecast for February, and the shared currency earlier broke through resistance at $1.33 to trade above $1.3340, its highest against the dollar since mid-December. Read more.

Among other metals, copper for March delivery HGH2 ?pared losses, down 2 cents, or 0.5%, to $3.81 a pound.

Silver tracked gold higher, with the March contract SIH2 ?building on earlier gains and rallying $1.20, or 3.5%, to 35.46 an ounce.

Palladium turned higher, with platinum adding to earlier gains. Platinum has had steep recent gains on the back of a labor strike called at a top mine in South Africa.

Platinum for April delivery PLJ2 ?rose $4.60, or 0.3%, to $1,725.40 an ounce. March palladium PAH2 ! < /span>?rose $1.70, or 0.2%, to $719.45 an ounce.

Wednesday saw platinum?s first settlement above $1,700 since late September. For palladium, a settlement of $717.75 an ounce was its highest in five months.