Shares of Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) jumped more than 3% in today's trading. The stock reached a high of $89.26 in trading, and closed 2.73% higher at $88.12. Volume was up from daily average of 1.01 million to 5.58 million.
Earlier today, Polo Ralph Lauren reported its fourth quarter and fiscal 2010 results. The company reported fourth-quarter net income of $114 million, or $1.13 per share, up from $45 million, or $0.44 per share reported in the fourth quarter of previous year. For fiscal 2010, the company reported net income of $480 million, or $4.73 per share, up from $406 million, or $4.01 per share reported in fiscal 2009. Revenue increased 9% to $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter. For the full fiscal year, revenue fell 1% to $5 billion. The decline has been mainly due to lower global wholesale shipment volumes. In the fourth quarter the company opened three directly operated freestanding stores, while it closed two directly operated freestanding stores. It also took over 16 freestanding stores and 75 concession shop locations in Asia.
Commenting on the results, Ralph Lauren, the company's chairman and CEO, said that in fiscal 2010, the company saw tremendous growth????????? and progress. Lauren said that the successful takeover Asian operations, development of accessories products and opening of several luxury stores were the highlights of fiscal 2010. With more than $1.2 billion in cash and investments on its balance sheet, the company is planning to accelerate investments in growth initiatives during fiscal 2011.
But where will this growth come from? The U.S. market is only just recovering. Consumer spending, the backbone of the U.S. economy, is seeing a rebound. But, it is still way below the pre-crisis levels. Europe is even worse. With all the troubles that the continent has been growing through, it looks like a recovery is a long way off. This leaves the company with just the Asian markets. In fiscal 2010, the company took contro! l of the Asian operations and this gives a signal that it is ready to focus more on these markets. This is a step in the right direction.
The stock has seen a lot of price fluctuations in the past year. It has a 52-week range of $48.07-$95.59. The stock has a beta of 1.60. Currently, the stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
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Showing posts with label stocks to invest in 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stocks to invest in 2012. Show all posts
Is FLIR's Stock Expensive by the Numbers?
Numbers can lie -- but they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:
We'll look at the numbers against some competitors and industry mates: L-3 Communications Holdings (NYSE: LLL ) , Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT ) , and Honeywell International (NYSE: HON ) .
The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the P/E ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share -- the lower, the better.
Then, we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). Like the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.
Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.
FLIR has a P/E ratio of 18.5 and an EV/FCF ratio of 29.9 over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations to the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, FLIR has a P/E ratio of 19.9 and a five-year EV/FCF ratio of 23.3.
A positive one-year ratio under 10 for both metrics is ideal (at least in my opinion). For a five-year metric, under 20 is ideal.
FLIR ! has a mi xed performance in hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it compares against some competitors and industry mates.?
The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash flow generation.
In the past five years, FLIR's net income margin has ranged from 13.7% to 20.6%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from 8.2% to 22.2%.
How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:
Next, let's figure out...
How much growth we can expect
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But while you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared to similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.
Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. In that time period, FLIR has put up past EPS growth rates of 16.5%. Meanwhile, Wall Street's analysts expect future growth rates of 14.8%.
Here's how FLIR compares to its peers for trailing five-year growth:
The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us the price multiples shares of FLIR?are trading at, the volatility of its operational performance, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.
The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at an 18.5 P/E ratio, and we see that its price multiples are elevated for companies linked to the defense industry. Its multiples are higher than each of its comps.
However, looking at margins and growth over the last five years, FLIR also beats L-3, Lockheed, and Honeywell. On an absolute basis, its margins are quite impressive.
Although FLIR's price multiples ! are expe nsive, its operational numbers could justify them. Our CAPS community rates FLIR four stars out of five despite the uncertainty of defense budgets. But these initial numbers are just a start. If you find FLIR's numbers or story compelling, don't stop. Continue your due diligence process until you're confident one way or the other. As a start, add it to My Watchlist to find all of our Foolish analysis.
I wrote about a stock that's flying under the radar in our brand new free report: "The Stocks Only the Smartest Investors Are Buying." I invite you to take a free copy to find out the name of the company I believe Warren Buffett would be interested in if he could still invest in small companies.
- The current price multiples.
- The consistency of past earnings and cash flow.
- How much growth we can expect.
We'll look at the numbers against some competitors and industry mates: L-3 Communications Holdings (NYSE: LLL ) , Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT ) , and Honeywell International (NYSE: HON ) .
The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the P/E ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share -- the lower, the better.
Then, we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). Like the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.
Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.
FLIR has a P/E ratio of 18.5 and an EV/FCF ratio of 29.9 over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations to the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, FLIR has a P/E ratio of 19.9 and a five-year EV/FCF ratio of 23.3.
A positive one-year ratio under 10 for both metrics is ideal (at least in my opinion). For a five-year metric, under 20 is ideal.
FLIR ! has a mi xed performance in hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it compares against some competitors and industry mates.?
Company | 1-Year P/E | 1-Year EV/FCF | 5-Year P/E | 5-Year EV/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLIR Systems | 18.5 | 29.9 | 19.9 | 23.3 |
| L-3 Communications Holdings | 7.1 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 7.7 |
| Lockheed Martin | 8.8 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 9.4 |
| Honeywell International | 15.7 | 25.0 | 18.3 | 14.5 |
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
Numerically, we've seen how FLIR's valuation rates on both an absolute and relative basis. Next, let's examine...The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash flow generation.
In the past five years, FLIR's net income margin has ranged from 13.7% to 20.6%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from 8.2% to 22.2%.
How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:
Source: S&P Capital IQ; margin ranges are combined.
Additionally, over the last five years, FLIR has tallied up five years of positive earnings and five years of positive free cash flow.Next, let's figure out...
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But while you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared to similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.
Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. In that time period, FLIR has put up past EPS growth rates of 16.5%. Meanwhile, Wall Street's analysts expect future growth rates of 14.8%.
Here's how FLIR compares to its peers for trailing five-year growth:
Source: S&P Capital IQ; EPS growth shown.
And here's how it measures up with regard to the growth analysts expect over the next five years:Source: S&P Capital IQ; estimates for EPS growth.
The bottom lineThe pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us the price multiples shares of FLIR?are trading at, the volatility of its operational performance, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.
The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at an 18.5 P/E ratio, and we see that its price multiples are elevated for companies linked to the defense industry. Its multiples are higher than each of its comps.
However, looking at margins and growth over the last five years, FLIR also beats L-3, Lockheed, and Honeywell. On an absolute basis, its margins are quite impressive.
Although FLIR's price multiples ! are expe nsive, its operational numbers could justify them. Our CAPS community rates FLIR four stars out of five despite the uncertainty of defense budgets. But these initial numbers are just a start. If you find FLIR's numbers or story compelling, don't stop. Continue your due diligence process until you're confident one way or the other. As a start, add it to My Watchlist to find all of our Foolish analysis.
I wrote about a stock that's flying under the radar in our brand new free report: "The Stocks Only the Smartest Investors Are Buying." I invite you to take a free copy to find out the name of the company I believe Warren Buffett would be interested in if he could still invest in small companies.
Woz loves Android, but iPhone is still good for most in 2012
(gigaom.com) -- My primary phone is the iPhone. I love the beauty of it. But I wish it did all the things my Android does, I really do.
Speaking to Dan Lyons in an article comparing the iPhone to Android devices, Apple co-founder, Steve Wozniak points out the relative limitations of Apple’s iPhone. Woz makes the case made by many smartphone power-users, suggesting the iPhone is still a great device for most people, but with a little effort and understanding, more can be done to an Android phone. Greater customization and user control have always been key selling points for Android devices; both the high-end smartphones and even the low-cost units.
Another interesting tidbit from Lyons’ article: unlike me, Woz prefers the Motorola Droid Razr over the Samsung Galaxy Nexus. Really, Woz? Are you running a custom ROM or are you suggesting that Android 4.0 isn’t as good as its predecessor? Oh well; that’s the beauty of Android: To each his or her own!
Related research and analysis from GigaOM Pro:
Subscriber content. Sign up for a free trial.
Speaking to Dan Lyons in an article comparing the iPhone to Android devices, Apple co-founder, Steve Wozniak points out the relative limitations of Apple’s iPhone. Woz makes the case made by many smartphone power-users, suggesting the iPhone is still a great device for most people, but with a little effort and understanding, more can be done to an Android phone. Greater customization and user control have always been key selling points for Android devices; both the high-end smartphones and even the low-cost units.
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Related research and analysis from GigaOM Pro:
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Favorite Large Bank Picks For Jan-2012
Yesterday, major regional banks (fourteen in number) sported gains of almost 1.16 percent, collectively. Among these banks, Bank of America's share price gained the least ($0.18), while? M&T Bank Corp's share price gained the most ($3.8).
Share price gains were surprising given that the Federal Reserve proposed steps to strengthen regulation and supervision of large bank holding companies with consolidated assets equal to or greater than $50 billion or those designated to be systemically important. The proposals include risk-based capital and leverage requirements implemented in two phases that would include subjection to the Fed's capital plan rule that requires firms to develop annual capital plans, conduct stress tests, and maintain adequate capital ratios, as well as a proposal issued by the Fed to implement a risk-based capital surcharge based on the framework and methodology developed by the
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Firms would also be subjected to annual stress tests. Credit exposure of a covered financial firm would be limited to a single counterparty as a percentage of the firm's regulatory capital. The Fed noted that it is proposing that firms would need to comply with many of the enhanced standards a year after they are finalized. Requirements related to stress tests would take effect shortly after the rule is finalized.
Compliance with Fed's proposals would not only increase regulatory costs but would also limit strategic options for these banks. So Fed's announcement should have had a negative impact. Yesterday that didn't happen but would surely happen as the market digests the import of Fed's proposals. This should lead to adjustments, positive on some and negative on some other, in the share prices of these fourteen banks. Though I am not giving the workings of the detailed share price impacts, nevertheless I will pick my favorite stocks among these fourteen.
Fifth Third Bancorp? (NASDAQ:FITB)
Fifth Third! 's capit al position is already well in excess of established standards, likely standards, and most peers. Holding company cash is currently sufficient for more than 2 years of obligations. Minimal holding company or bank debt maturities until 2013, so need for new capital at above peer average cost of marginal capital is minimal. Fifth Third has completely exited all crisis-era government support programs and it is one of the few large banks that
have no TLGP-guaranteed debt to refinance in 2012. In addition, it has no direct European sovereign exposure; total exposure to European peripheral borrowers is less than $0.2 billion and gross exposure to European banks less than $0.3 billion.
I expect FITB share to test $15.5 and establish $15 in January 2012.
State Street Corporation? (NYSE:STT)
STT has two powerful platforms for growth namely State Street Global Services ($21.5 trillion in assets under custody and administration), and State Street Global Advisors (1.9 trillion in assets under management). Nearly 78 of its top 100 clients use both asset servicing and asset management and they account for about 35% of total management fee revenue (YTD 2011).
As of end September 2011, STT's tier 1 common ratio was 16 percent,which is significantly higher than 12.5 percent for The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation? (NYSE:BK), and 11.8 percent for Northern Trust Corporation? (NASDAQ:NTRS). Moreover, even under Basel III, STT's tier 1 common ratio was 11.7 percent, which is significantly higher than 6.5 percent for The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE:BK), and 11.8 percent for Northern Trust Corporation (NASDAQ:NTRS).
I expect STT share to test $50 and establish $49 in January 2012.
Other stocks that I think could benefit include SunTrust Banks, Inc.(NYSE:STI), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB), and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM).{$end}
Share price gains were surprising given that the Federal Reserve proposed steps to strengthen regulation and supervision of large bank holding companies with consolidated assets equal to or greater than $50 billion or those designated to be systemically important. The proposals include risk-based capital and leverage requirements implemented in two phases that would include subjection to the Fed's capital plan rule that requires firms to develop annual capital plans, conduct stress tests, and maintain adequate capital ratios, as well as a proposal issued by the Fed to implement a risk-based capital surcharge based on the framework and methodology developed by the
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Firms would also be subjected to annual stress tests. Credit exposure of a covered financial firm would be limited to a single counterparty as a percentage of the firm's regulatory capital. The Fed noted that it is proposing that firms would need to comply with many of the enhanced standards a year after they are finalized. Requirements related to stress tests would take effect shortly after the rule is finalized.
Compliance with Fed's proposals would not only increase regulatory costs but would also limit strategic options for these banks. So Fed's announcement should have had a negative impact. Yesterday that didn't happen but would surely happen as the market digests the import of Fed's proposals. This should lead to adjustments, positive on some and negative on some other, in the share prices of these fourteen banks. Though I am not giving the workings of the detailed share price impacts, nevertheless I will pick my favorite stocks among these fourteen.
Fifth Third Bancorp? (NASDAQ:FITB)
Fifth Third! 's capit al position is already well in excess of established standards, likely standards, and most peers. Holding company cash is currently sufficient for more than 2 years of obligations. Minimal holding company or bank debt maturities until 2013, so need for new capital at above peer average cost of marginal capital is minimal. Fifth Third has completely exited all crisis-era government support programs and it is one of the few large banks that
have no TLGP-guaranteed debt to refinance in 2012. In addition, it has no direct European sovereign exposure; total exposure to European peripheral borrowers is less than $0.2 billion and gross exposure to European banks less than $0.3 billion.
I expect FITB share to test $15.5 and establish $15 in January 2012.
State Street Corporation? (NYSE:STT)
STT has two powerful platforms for growth namely State Street Global Services ($21.5 trillion in assets under custody and administration), and State Street Global Advisors (1.9 trillion in assets under management). Nearly 78 of its top 100 clients use both asset servicing and asset management and they account for about 35% of total management fee revenue (YTD 2011).
As of end September 2011, STT's tier 1 common ratio was 16 percent,which is significantly higher than 12.5 percent for The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation? (NYSE:BK), and 11.8 percent for Northern Trust Corporation? (NASDAQ:NTRS). Moreover, even under Basel III, STT's tier 1 common ratio was 11.7 percent, which is significantly higher than 6.5 percent for The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE:BK), and 11.8 percent for Northern Trust Corporation (NASDAQ:NTRS).
I expect STT share to test $50 and establish $49 in January 2012.
Other stocks that I think could benefit include SunTrust Banks, Inc.(NYSE:STI), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB), and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM).{$end}
SEC to appeal rejected Citigroup settlement
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission is appealing a federal judge's decision last month to toss out a proposed $285 million mortgage securities fraud settlement between the agency and Citigroup.
Federal judge Jed Rakoff ruled on Nov. 28 that the deal between the SEC and Citi was "neither fair, nor reasonable, nor adequate, nor in the public interest" and ordered the case to proceed to trial in July 2012.
He said that the settlement announced in October, under which Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) neither admitted nor denied the SEC's allegations, deprived the public "of ever knowing the truth in a matter of obvious public importance."
The SEC argued in a statement Thursday that the ruling "inadvertently harms investors by depriving them of substantial, certain and immediate benefits."
"We believe the court was incorrect in requiring an admission of facts -- or a trial -- as a condition of approving a proposed consent judgment," said the agency. It argued Rakoff's ruling would set a new standard for settlements that would be difficult to reach and that it is at odds with established practice.
The SEC said the $285 million proposed settlement, "while less than investor losses, represents most of the total monetary recovery that the SEC itself could have sought at trial. An SEC settlement does not limit the ability of injured investors to pursue claims for additional relief."
Rakoff said in his ruling that given the damage done to financial markets by the alleged actions by Citigroup, a greater level of transparency is needed.
The SEC's pattern of allowing big banks to reach settlements without admitting or denying wrongdoing, Rakoff added, has been "hallowed by history, but not by reason."
Citigroup did not have an immediate reaction to the SEC's appeal. At the time of Rakoff's ruling, a spokeswoman for the banking giant said it respectfully disagreed with the decision.
"In the event the case is tried, we would present substantial factual and legal defenses to the charges," she added.
The SEC alleged that in 2007, Citi created and sold a mortgage-related collaterialized debt obligation, or CDO, called Class V Funding III.
According to the SEC complaint, one CDO trader characterized the asset group in internal communications as "a collection of dogshit" and "possibly the best short EVER!"
Can Wall Street thrive again?
In marketing materials, however, the assets were described as "attractive investments rigorously selected by an independent investment adviser," Rakoff's decision said.
After marketing the CDO, Citi then took a short position -- or bet against -- the security as the housing market deteriorated, bringing in a net profit of $160 million for the bank. Meanwhile, investors lost more than $700 million.
The SEC has settled a string of similar complaints in recent months, including agreements with Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500).
Rakoff, though, has been a thorn in the agency's side in recent years, rejecting a proposed $33 million settlement in 2009 between the SEC and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) over allegations that BofA lied about bonuses for Merrill Lynch & Co. employees following the firms' merger.
That settlement ! was late r revised upward to $150 million, which Rakoff reluctantly approved, calling it "half-baked justice at its best."
Shares of Citi (C, Fortune 500) closed down 0.5% in trading Thursday.
Federal judge Jed Rakoff ruled on Nov. 28 that the deal between the SEC and Citi was "neither fair, nor reasonable, nor adequate, nor in the public interest" and ordered the case to proceed to trial in July 2012.
He said that the settlement announced in October, under which Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) neither admitted nor denied the SEC's allegations, deprived the public "of ever knowing the truth in a matter of obvious public importance."
The SEC argued in a statement Thursday that the ruling "inadvertently harms investors by depriving them of substantial, certain and immediate benefits."
"We believe the court was incorrect in requiring an admission of facts -- or a trial -- as a condition of approving a proposed consent judgment," said the agency. It argued Rakoff's ruling would set a new standard for settlements that would be difficult to reach and that it is at odds with established practice.
Big bank SEC settlements: Toothless face-savers?
"Courts have routinely approved settlements in which a defendant does not admit or even expressly denies liability, exactly because of the benefits that settlements provide," said the agency.The SEC said the $285 million proposed settlement, "while less than investor losses, represents most of the total monetary recovery that the SEC itself could have sought at trial. An SEC settlement does not limit the ability of injured investors to pursue claims for additional relief."
Rakoff said in his ruling that given the damage done to financial markets by the alleged actions by Citigroup, a greater level of transparency is needed.
JPMorgan pays $153 million to settle mortgage case
"[I]n any case like this that touches on t! he trans parency of financial markets whose gyrations have so depressed our economy and debilitated our lives, there is an overriding public interest in knowing the truth," Rakoff, a U.S. district judge in Manhattan, wrote in his decision.The SEC's pattern of allowing big banks to reach settlements without admitting or denying wrongdoing, Rakoff added, has been "hallowed by history, but not by reason."
Citigroup did not have an immediate reaction to the SEC's appeal. At the time of Rakoff's ruling, a spokeswoman for the banking giant said it respectfully disagreed with the decision.
"In the event the case is tried, we would present substantial factual and legal defenses to the charges," she added.
The SEC alleged that in 2007, Citi created and sold a mortgage-related collaterialized debt obligation, or CDO, called Class V Funding III.
According to the SEC complaint, one CDO trader characterized the asset group in internal communications as "a collection of dogshit" and "possibly the best short EVER!"
Can Wall Street thrive again?
In marketing materials, however, the assets were described as "attractive investments rigorously selected by an independent investment adviser," Rakoff's decision said.
After marketing the CDO, Citi then took a short position -- or bet against -- the security as the housing market deteriorated, bringing in a net profit of $160 million for the bank. Meanwhile, investors lost more than $700 million.
The SEC has settled a string of similar complaints in recent months, including agreements with Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500).
Rakoff, though, has been a thorn in the agency's side in recent years, rejecting a proposed $33 million settlement in 2009 between the SEC and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) over allegations that BofA lied about bonuses for Merrill Lynch & Co. employees following the firms' merger.
That settlement ! was late r revised upward to $150 million, which Rakoff reluctantly approved, calling it "half-baked justice at its best."
Shares of Citi (C, Fortune 500) closed down 0.5% in trading Thursday.
Buy, Sell or Hold: The Clorox Co. (NYSE:CLX) Is Cleaning Up
The Clorox Co. (NYSE:CLX) on Thursday reported net earnings of $171 million on sales of $1.52 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 ended June 30, compared to net earnings of $170 million on net sales of $1.5 billion the year prior.
This continued the company's trend of improvement. But more importantly, the bulk of Clorox's profit and margin growth came from its international unit, and the firm projected an expansion in earnings per share of at least 10% to 14% for next fiscal year.
Boring is beautiful when you're dealing with consumer staples, since share prices improve with incremental increases in sales and margins. In Clorox's case, this has meant taking advantage of low rates and dependable cashflow to finance expansion plans. But the good news is that the high financial leverage results in an exorbitant return on equity.
This continued the company's trend of improvement. But more importantly, the bulk of Clorox's profit and margin growth came from its international unit, and the firm projected an expansion in earnings per share of at least 10% to 14% for next fiscal year.
Boring is beautiful when you're dealing with consumer staples, since share prices improve with incremental increases in sales and margins. In Clorox's case, this has meant taking advantage of low rates and dependable cashflow to finance expansion plans. But the good news is that the high financial leverage results in an exorbitant return on equity.
Clorox's strong cashflow affords the company very comfortable debt coverage ratios. Its level of debt to earnings before income tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) has declined in the last three years from 3.3-times to 2.2-times, improving its creditworthiness. Clorox's interest coverage ratio (EBITDA to interest expense) also has improved strongly, to 8.96-times from 6.27-times. This trend has warranted an improvement in the firm's credit rating outlook, which in the investment grade is BBB+ to stable.
There is no question that this is a sound strategy with interest rates so low. A few years from now, as interest rates normalize and the cost of debt goes up, this strategy will be more costly. But, by that time, the company's effort to improve its earnings/debt ratio will have put it in a better position to face higher borrowing costs.
Of course, there's more to Clorox's recent success than shrewd borrowing.
In the past two years the company has set out to recover the slight profit ! margin e rosion brought on by the economic disaster. And in that time, Clorox has recovered much its lost market share through disciplined cost cutting, better pricing power and lower commodity prices. You see, in this business, little differences add up. That means careful marketing, advertising, distribution and cost controls, as well as an optimal financing structure are of paramount importance. And that's precisely where Clorox has excelled.
For example, Clorox is already number two in U.S. market share, behind The Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG). In fact, Clorox is ranked in the top two in almost every one of its key brands. And those brands represent 88% of the company's total portfolio.
While double-digit earnings growth is achievable via growth in both its core U.S. operations and in its international units, do not expect miracles. The likely range for outperformance or underperformance is relatively small at first sight. Yet, the relatively low weight of international sales within the company and a proven capacity for successful and profitable innovation make its objectives achievable. There is some room for upside surprises with both new products and developments in fast-growing emerging economies.
Clorox concentrates some 71% of its international presence in home cleaning and bleach and laundry products in Latin America. And the fact that Asia today represents only 5% of sales is actually a plus, since it leaves lots of room for improvement in the long term. So, we have a superbly managed marketing company, with plenty of room to grow internationally.
This success is the result of a carefully managed process that prioritizes margin and market share expansion, allocating resources based on economic profit. We expect continued margin improvement through the continuation of relentless cost savings initiatives, information technology investment, and innovation. In addition, market s! hare imp rovement will come from the launching of carefully targeted products - the emphasis being in value and superior customer perception.
Health and wellness are key themes that will drive future growth. Clorox has very sophisticated market segmentation, product positioning and overall marketing strategy in these sectors. It is bound to deliver results, based on their proven track record.
Earnings momentum is at its back due to a mix of carefully tested marketing and financial initiatives. The stock is valued at 13-times earnings at a nice discount to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Its Price/Earnings/Growth (PEG) ratio is high at 1.43, though not disqualifying.
We can overpay a little for growth that we are pretty certain lies ahead. And Clorox offers an attractive 3.4% dividend yield. That dividend is easily sustainable at a dividend payout ratio of only 47%. In fact, it was just raised by 10% in May.
Technically, the stock is almost "boringly" bullish. Its 200-day moving average shows a very steady upward slope. At just over $64 a share Clorox is sitting right near its 50-day moving average and in the middle of the Bollinger bands, in an oversold condition. This bodes very well for an entry point.
However, the stock also is approaching the 2007 all-time high, so it should start showing some short-term resistance. So what is the investment proposition?
With this type of stability and high dividend yield, Clorox should be a core holding in any portfolio that is not purely speculative. Rather than sitting in ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds, we can sit on Clorox stock, get paid much more and have the upside of a first-class equity that can actually adjust prices up if inflation becomes a problem.
If we see some resistance here, we could run a short-term covered-call strategy: Buy the stock and sell some out of the money calls on it. The one-month calls we sell lower our entry poi! nt in th e stock by the amount of premium we collect and would probably expire worthless. The traditional risk-minimization strategy is to dollar-cost average into the stock over the next couple of months.
Recommendation: Dollar-cost average into The Clorox Co. (NYSE:CLX) on a weekly basis over the next two months (**).
(**) - Special Note of Disclosure: Horacio Marquez holds no interest in The Clorox Co.
[Editor's Note: Horacio Marquez knows how to make a market call. It was Marquez who told investors that lithium was going to be big - a year before other "experts" made the same call. Now Marquez has isolated the major profit opportunities being created by the possible broadband breakdown - a situation that the news media is only just now starting to understand. To find out all about those top profit opportunities, check out this new report.]
There is no question that this is a sound strategy with interest rates so low. A few years from now, as interest rates normalize and the cost of debt goes up, this strategy will be more costly. But, by that time, the company's effort to improve its earnings/debt ratio will have put it in a better position to face higher borrowing costs.
Of course, there's more to Clorox's recent success than shrewd borrowing.
In the past two years the company has set out to recover the slight profit ! margin e rosion brought on by the economic disaster. And in that time, Clorox has recovered much its lost market share through disciplined cost cutting, better pricing power and lower commodity prices. You see, in this business, little differences add up. That means careful marketing, advertising, distribution and cost controls, as well as an optimal financing structure are of paramount importance. And that's precisely where Clorox has excelled.
For example, Clorox is already number two in U.S. market share, behind The Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG). In fact, Clorox is ranked in the top two in almost every one of its key brands. And those brands represent 88% of the company's total portfolio.
While double-digit earnings growth is achievable via growth in both its core U.S. operations and in its international units, do not expect miracles. The likely range for outperformance or underperformance is relatively small at first sight. Yet, the relatively low weight of international sales within the company and a proven capacity for successful and profitable innovation make its objectives achievable. There is some room for upside surprises with both new products and developments in fast-growing emerging economies.
Clorox concentrates some 71% of its international presence in home cleaning and bleach and laundry products in Latin America. And the fact that Asia today represents only 5% of sales is actually a plus, since it leaves lots of room for improvement in the long term. So, we have a superbly managed marketing company, with plenty of room to grow internationally.
This success is the result of a carefully managed process that prioritizes margin and market share expansion, allocating resources based on economic profit. We expect continued margin improvement through the continuation of relentless cost savings initiatives, information technology investment, and innovation. In addition, market s! hare imp rovement will come from the launching of carefully targeted products - the emphasis being in value and superior customer perception.
Health and wellness are key themes that will drive future growth. Clorox has very sophisticated market segmentation, product positioning and overall marketing strategy in these sectors. It is bound to deliver results, based on their proven track record.
Earnings momentum is at its back due to a mix of carefully tested marketing and financial initiatives. The stock is valued at 13-times earnings at a nice discount to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Its Price/Earnings/Growth (PEG) ratio is high at 1.43, though not disqualifying.
We can overpay a little for growth that we are pretty certain lies ahead. And Clorox offers an attractive 3.4% dividend yield. That dividend is easily sustainable at a dividend payout ratio of only 47%. In fact, it was just raised by 10% in May.
Technically, the stock is almost "boringly" bullish. Its 200-day moving average shows a very steady upward slope. At just over $64 a share Clorox is sitting right near its 50-day moving average and in the middle of the Bollinger bands, in an oversold condition. This bodes very well for an entry point.
However, the stock also is approaching the 2007 all-time high, so it should start showing some short-term resistance. So what is the investment proposition?
With this type of stability and high dividend yield, Clorox should be a core holding in any portfolio that is not purely speculative. Rather than sitting in ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds, we can sit on Clorox stock, get paid much more and have the upside of a first-class equity that can actually adjust prices up if inflation becomes a problem.
If we see some resistance here, we could run a short-term covered-call strategy: Buy the stock and sell some out of the money calls on it. The one-month calls we sell lower our entry poi! nt in th e stock by the amount of premium we collect and would probably expire worthless. The traditional risk-minimization strategy is to dollar-cost average into the stock over the next couple of months.
Recommendation: Dollar-cost average into The Clorox Co. (NYSE:CLX) on a weekly basis over the next two months (**).
(**) - Special Note of Disclosure: Horacio Marquez holds no interest in The Clorox Co.
[Editor's Note: Horacio Marquez knows how to make a market call. It was Marquez who told investors that lithium was going to be big - a year before other "experts" made the same call. Now Marquez has isolated the major profit opportunities being created by the possible broadband breakdown - a situation that the news media is only just now starting to understand. To find out all about those top profit opportunities, check out this new report.]
Former SEC Exam Chief Walsh: SEC Whistleblower Program 'Showing Traction'
The former chief counsel at the Securities and Exchange Commission’s exam division, John Walsh, has formed a Whistleblower Response Team with several of his colleagues at the law firm Sutherland Asbill & Brennan to help firms develop whistleblower response programs as Walsh says the SEC’s “initiative is beginning to show traction.”
Walsh, a 23-year veteran of the SEC where he played a key role in creating the Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations (OCIE), including serving as OCIE’s chief counsel, said in a statement that the SEC’s Whistleblower program, which the agency expanded under Dodd-Frank, is beginning to “see results.”
Walsh cites the November report issued by the SEC detailing the first seven weeks of the Whistleblower program that found that between Aug. 12 and Sept. 30, the SEC received 334 whistleblower tips, an average of nearly 48 per week.
The SEC report notes that the most common complaint categories were market manipulation (16.2%), corporate disclosures and financial statements (15.3%), and offering fraud (15.6%). The commission received whistleblower submissions from individuals in 37 states, as well as from several foreign countries, including China (10) and the United Kingdom (nine).
“Senior SEC officials have stated publically that they are now receiving high-quality information,” Walsh said. “As a result, we believe it is critical that companies receive the most up-to-date information and proper counsel to effectively respond to whistleblower claims as they emerge.”
Other members of Sutherland’s Whistleblower response team are Cynthia Krus, Allegra Lawrence-Hardy, and Holly Smith. The legal team will help clients create effective whistleblower response programs, respond to whistleblower claims, and defend against SEC enforcement actions and civil litigation.
Walsh, the former associate director and chief counsel at OCIE, retired from the agency at the
end of September, and joined Sutherland’s Financial Services Group and Securities Enforcement and Litigation Team in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 1.
In August, the SEC launched a web page that allows individuals to report a violation of the federal securities laws and apply for a financial award. The whistleblower program provides a monetary incentive of between 10% and 30% of sanctions the SEC collects for whistleblowers who voluntarily provide the agency with original information that leads to a successful SEC action with sanctions exceeding $1 million.
While 170 applicable enforcement judgments and orders issued from July 21, 2010 through July 31, 2011 included the imposition of sanctions exceeding the statutory threshold of $1 million, the SEC explained in its report, because the 90-day application period had not passed with respect to any of these actions as of the end of the fiscal year, applications for awards had not yet been processed. Accordingly, the commission did not pay any whistleblower awards during fiscal year 2011.
Walsh, a 23-year veteran of the SEC where he played a key role in creating the Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations (OCIE), including serving as OCIE’s chief counsel, said in a statement that the SEC’s Whistleblower program, which the agency expanded under Dodd-Frank, is beginning to “see results.”
Walsh cites the November report issued by the SEC detailing the first seven weeks of the Whistleblower program that found that between Aug. 12 and Sept. 30, the SEC received 334 whistleblower tips, an average of nearly 48 per week.
The SEC report notes that the most common complaint categories were market manipulation (16.2%), corporate disclosures and financial statements (15.3%), and offering fraud (15.6%). The commission received whistleblower submissions from individuals in 37 states, as well as from several foreign countries, including China (10) and the United Kingdom (nine).
“Senior SEC officials have stated publically that they are now receiving high-quality information,” Walsh said. “As a result, we believe it is critical that companies receive the most up-to-date information and proper counsel to effectively respond to whistleblower claims as they emerge.”
Other members of Sutherland’s Whistleblower response team are Cynthia Krus, Allegra Lawrence-Hardy, and Holly Smith. The legal team will help clients create effective whistleblower response programs, respond to whistleblower claims, and defend against SEC enforcement actions and civil litigation.
Walsh, the former associate director and chief counsel at OCIE, retired from the agency at the
end of September, and joined Sutherland’s Financial Services Group and Securities Enforcement and Litigation Team in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 1.
In August, the SEC launched a web page that allows individuals to report a violation of the federal securities laws and apply for a financial award. The whistleblower program provides a monetary incentive of between 10% and 30% of sanctions the SEC collects for whistleblowers who voluntarily provide the agency with original information that leads to a successful SEC action with sanctions exceeding $1 million.
While 170 applicable enforcement judgments and orders issued from July 21, 2010 through July 31, 2011 included the imposition of sanctions exceeding the statutory threshold of $1 million, the SEC explained in its report, because the 90-day application period had not passed with respect to any of these actions as of the end of the fiscal year, applications for awards had not yet been processed. Accordingly, the commission did not pay any whistleblower awards during fiscal year 2011.
Stocks Attractive to Traders Today in 2012: BLK, JCI, UNP, MS, UNH, KCG, EGHT
CEO Laurence D. Fink of BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK), wants corporations to adopt shareholder friendly practices, according to Bloomberg. The company holds at?a minimum?5% of the shares of 2,400 companies worldwide. In letters to 600 of the firm’s biggest holdings,?Fink wrote?that BlackRock seeks to “engage in dialogue” with management to address issues that will be raised this year at shareholder meetings.
Shares of Johnson Controls, Inc. (NYSE:JCI) are trading 8.09% lower today, with consensus?of $44.03B. Johnson Controls lowers their Euro assumption to $1.30 from $1.35,?having seen Europe auto production at 20.1M units, +1.5%.
Versus a consensus of $5.06B,?Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) reports Q4 revenue of?$5.1B.
Shares of Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) are trading 4.5% higher today, as the company is rumored to be cutting senior banker and trader pay 20%-30%, according to?Bloomberg. Sources with knowledge of the plan were cited.
Shares of UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:UNH) are trading 2.97% lower today, after?FY12 revenue $107B-$108B vs. consensus $108B is being projected.
Shares of Knight Capital Group Inc. (NYSE:KCG) are trading 9.28% higher today, following reports of Q4 revenue $341.3M vs. consensus $312.47M. Q4 Electronic Execution Services projects revenue $40.6M vs. $37.1M. And Market Making revenue is projecting?$187.4M vs. $111.0M.
Shares of? 8×8, Inc. (NASDAQ:EGHT) are trading 24.11% higher today, after it was revealed that business customer churn decreased to a record low of 2.0%, compared to a churn rate of 2.2% in the same period in 2011 and 2.1% in the 2012. Ending Q3 with 27,677 business customers, 8×8 reported Q3 revenue $23.3M vs. consensus $22.09M.
Shares of Johnson Controls, Inc. (NYSE:JCI) are trading 8.09% lower today, with consensus?of $44.03B. Johnson Controls lowers their Euro assumption to $1.30 from $1.35,?having seen Europe auto production at 20.1M units, +1.5%.
Versus a consensus of $5.06B,?Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) reports Q4 revenue of?$5.1B.
Shares of Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) are trading 4.5% higher today, as the company is rumored to be cutting senior banker and trader pay 20%-30%, according to?Bloomberg. Sources with knowledge of the plan were cited.
Shares of UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:UNH) are trading 2.97% lower today, after?FY12 revenue $107B-$108B vs. consensus $108B is being projected.
Shares of Knight Capital Group Inc. (NYSE:KCG) are trading 9.28% higher today, following reports of Q4 revenue $341.3M vs. consensus $312.47M. Q4 Electronic Execution Services projects revenue $40.6M vs. $37.1M. And Market Making revenue is projecting?$187.4M vs. $111.0M.
Shares of? 8×8, Inc. (NASDAQ:EGHT) are trading 24.11% higher today, after it was revealed that business customer churn decreased to a record low of 2.0%, compared to a churn rate of 2.2% in the same period in 2011 and 2.1% in the 2012. Ending Q3 with 27,677 business customers, 8×8 reported Q3 revenue $23.3M vs. consensus $22.09M.
Credit Crisis Update: U.S. Stocks Skid as Bailout Bogs Down, President to Address the Nation
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Greece and its private sector creditors remain mired in deep negotiations over a deal to reduce the nation's crushing debt load.
Institute of International Finance director Charles Dallara, who represents the private sector investors and banks that hold Greek debt, said "it's not entirely clear" how close the parties are to a deal.
"I wouldn't say I'm confident, but I'm hopeful we'll reach agreement," Dallara told CNN International's Richard Quest in a phone interview from Athens.
The talks ended Wednesday without an agreement. They will resume Thursday and Dallara said final terms could be reached in the days ahead.
The IIF has been in discussions with the Greek government over an agreement to voluntarily write down the value of Greek government bonds by 50%.
The private sector holds over €200 billion worth of Greece's total debt load -- estimated at €350 billion.
Dallara said the group intends to follow through on the 50% writedown, which was announced following a summit of European Union leaders in December.
That would result in significant losses for the private sector. But it would also help reduce Greece's debt load to 120% of economic output by 2020.
In addition, Dallara said 15% of the remaining amount that Greece owes the private sector would be paid in cash. Another 35% would be restructured, or replaced with loans that have longer maturities and lower interest rates.
The talks broke down last week amid demands for even larger write downs, and Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos' call for a private sector participation rate of 100%.
Dallara told CNN he's confident the group can "mobilize a high participation." But that doesn't mean 100%, he added.
The deal is a key condition for Greece to receive additional bailout funds from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. Without additional financial support, Greece may not be able to make a €14 bill! ion paym ent it owes on bonds coming due March 20.
Dallara stressed that both sides are interested in finding "common ground."
All governments have an interest in resolving Greece's debt problems "in a cooperative manner" so that investors will be confident that issues this extreme can be resolved "in a mutually satisfactory way," said Dallara.
-- CNN's Jim Boulden contributed to this report from London.
Institute of International Finance director Charles Dallara, who represents the private sector investors and banks that hold Greek debt, said "it's not entirely clear" how close the parties are to a deal.
"I wouldn't say I'm confident, but I'm hopeful we'll reach agreement," Dallara told CNN International's Richard Quest in a phone interview from Athens.
The talks ended Wednesday without an agreement. They will resume Thursday and Dallara said final terms could be reached in the days ahead.
The IIF has been in discussions with the Greek government over an agreement to voluntarily write down the value of Greek government bonds by 50%.
The private sector holds over €200 billion worth of Greece's total debt load -- estimated at €350 billion.
Dallara said the group intends to follow through on the 50% writedown, which was announced following a summit of European Union leaders in December.
That would result in significant losses for the private sector. But it would also help reduce Greece's debt load to 120% of economic output by 2020.
In addition, Dallara said 15% of the remaining amount that Greece owes the private sector would be paid in cash. Another 35% would be restructured, or replaced with loans that have longer maturities and lower interest rates.
The talks broke down last week amid demands for even larger write downs, and Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos' call for a private sector participation rate of 100%.
Dallara told CNN he's confident the group can "mobilize a high participation." But that doesn't mean 100%, he added.
The deal is a key condition for Greece to receive additional bailout funds from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. Without additional financial support, Greece may not be able to make a €14 bill! ion paym ent it owes on bonds coming due March 20.
Dallara stressed that both sides are interested in finding "common ground."
World Bank warns on risk of global recession
He said the creditors recognize that a portion of Greece's debt needs to be written off in order to avoid a "disorderly" default, which could have severe repercussions for the global economy. But he acknowledged that some investors may be worried that other euro area governments could extract similar concessions.All governments have an interest in resolving Greece's debt problems "in a cooperative manner" so that investors will be confident that issues this extreme can be resolved "in a mutually satisfactory way," said Dallara.
-- CNN's Jim Boulden contributed to this report from London.
Tesoro Shares Plunged: What You Need to Know in 2012
Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Tesoro (NYSE: TSO ) are plunging today, down by as much as 10%, after the company updated its fourth-quarter guidance.
So what: The company expects to report a net loss between $0.55 and $0.80 per share, compared to the $0.65 profit analysts are looking for. Tesoro cited an extremely weak margin environment in California and the collapse of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to Brent crude oil spread.
Now what: The Tesoro Index for the California area was a negative $0.05 per barrel, down over $6 compared to the sequential and year-over-year prices. The WTI to Brent spread fell from $26 per barrel in September to just $8 per barrel in December. The decline reduces benchmark margins at Tesoro's refineries and the margin on long-haul foreign crude oil barrels indexed to WTI. When you're in the oil business, volatility is simply the name of the game.
What: Shares of Tesoro (NYSE: TSO ) are plunging today, down by as much as 10%, after the company updated its fourth-quarter guidance.
So what: The company expects to report a net loss between $0.55 and $0.80 per share, compared to the $0.65 profit analysts are looking for. Tesoro cited an extremely weak margin environment in California and the collapse of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to Brent crude oil spread.
Now what: The Tesoro Index for the California area was a negative $0.05 per barrel, down over $6 compared to the sequential and year-over-year prices. The WTI to Brent spread fell from $26 per barrel in September to just $8 per barrel in December. The decline reduces benchmark margins at Tesoro's refineries and the margin on long-haul foreign crude oil barrels indexed to WTI. When you're in the oil business, volatility is simply the name of the game.
As Fidelity Re-Opens Magellan Fund, Investors Review Top Holdings (FMAGX, NOK, GLW, GOOG, SLB, CNQ, SPLS, T, AGN, MON)
It’s official. Fidelity’s Magellan Fund (FMAGX) is being re-opened for new investors. This fund at one point in 1997 became so large that the fund closed itself to new funds and outside investment commitments. As of the last seen date Fidelity’s Magellan Fund had some $43.3+ Billion in assets under management.
Also be advised that the full holdings list is 45 days old and we know for certain that many of the positions and many of the weightings have already changed from November 30, 2007. We’d actually start screening out some of the smaller holdings off of that master list to see which are attractive in growth and/or value that will still do well in a slowing economy or even a recession. If you were opening a decade-long closed fund, you might be tempted to disperse more of the new inflows into other names that might be under-owned or under-weighted in the fund.
- Fidelity says that as the investor base is now 10 years older, they have had adequate redemptions and portfolio manager Harry Lang says: "We believe that the time is right to make Magellan available to a new generation of investors………… We believe that generating new sales to offset future redemptions will help stabilize the fund’s cash flows and assist Harry in most effectively directing investment strategies for the benefit of fund shareholders. It’s effectively the inverse of the reason why we limited new purchases of the fund 10 years ago. At that time, we were seeing strengthening cash inflows, and we expected that trend to continue."
- More importantly, Harry Lang also noted, "I’ve been fortunate to find great stocks here in the U.S. and abroad to include in the portfolio. If we’re able to achieve a better balance of cash flows in the fund going forward, I’ll regularly have the cash on hand to capitalize on attractive investment opportunities as I find them."
- Nokia (NOK, Corning (GLW), Google (GOOG), Schlumberger (SLB), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Staples (SPLS), AT&T (T), Allergan (AGN), Monsanto (MON), Renewable Energy Corp. AS (overseas). This list was posted! on Dece mber 30, 2007, so it might be more updated than some of the aggregator financial news and data web sites that take time to update.
Also be advised that the full holdings list is 45 days old and we know for certain that many of the positions and many of the weightings have already changed from November 30, 2007. We’d actually start screening out some of the smaller holdings off of that master list to see which are attractive in growth and/or value that will still do well in a slowing economy or even a recession. If you were opening a decade-long closed fund, you might be tempted to disperse more of the new inflows into other names that might be under-owned or under-weighted in the fund.
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