Consider This Gasoline ETF As A Hedge (UGA)

The United States Gasoline Fund (NYSEARCA:UGA) is a way for investors and hedgers to manage their exposure to gasoline prices. This exchange traded fund is designed to reflect changes in percentage terms of the price of gasoline as measured by the change in the price of the gasoline futures contract traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Let's take a look at the chart below. UGA formed a breakaway gap from a "Descending Triangle" pattern to start 2012. A descending triangle pattern shows demand at a fixed price level which is where I drew the blue horizontal trendline. It also shows increasing supply pressures with each rally off of support marked by the falling blue trendline.
Eventually either the demand or the supply is going to be depleted by the other. Normally this is a very bearish pattern, since once demand has been depleted; you can almost hear on the chart "look out below". The path of least resistance is lower below $45. Why? Traders who were buying and holding inside the triangle now have a losing position and potentially will be looking to cut losses. This increases supply. Bids become smart money doesn't like to catch a falling knife. Increasing supply with decreasing demand means down we go in price. Eventually the market hits a stopping price where the prior sellers are gone and long term investors now believe there is value and step in for a bargain. This is the reality of a two way auction.
The breakout that we see now on the other hand is not the most bullish indicator. What happened does signal a potential change in trend when the trendline is broken to the upside but you may still have some buy and hold investors at higher levels looking to get out. This can cause a false breakout. Volume was not that strong so this has potential to fill the gap.
I do not rely on technical indicators to make trading decisions, but it's worth pointing out that we had a MACD centerline crossover while UGA was inside the triangle as well as some prior positive bullish! diverge nce the last time UGA was bouncing on support. This was a signal to some technicians that momentum was building to the upside.
I would like to see Gasoline fill the gap and retest that backside of the falling trendline to see if any additional supply comes in. Any move back above this recent high afterward will be bullish and have me taking trades.
A longer term investor might find the horizontal support a great place to put a protective stop, but keep in mind this would be about a 10% move if you are proven wrong. Position sizing would be critical to keep losses to a minimum. Position sizing has everything to do with your account size and how much you are comfortable risking in capital (or how much you drive, since you may offset losses in your UGA hedge at the pump).
UGA often trades less than 100,000 shares so this is not a wise day trading vehicle.

Oil Trades Near One-Week High on Speculation U.S. Economy May Boost Demand

Oil traded near the highest price ina week in New York and is poised for the first weekly gain inthree amid signs of economic recovery in the U.S., the world sbiggest crude consumer.

Futures were little changed after climbing for a second dayyesterday. U.S. durable goods orders rose more than forecast inDecember, according to Commerce Department data, while a reportthis week showed gasoline demand increased the most in more thantwo months. Australia s crude production may have been cut by aquarter as Tropical Cyclone Iggy shut platforms. Brent oil spremium to New York-traded West Texas Intermediate widened.

 The data we ve seen out of the U.S. over the last fewmonths is indicating a recovery in the economy,  Michael McCarthy, a chief market strategist at CMC Markets Asia PacificPty in Sydney, said by telephone today.  The spread betweenBrent and West Texas has blown out again. That suggests thepotential for some supply disruption out of the Middle East isin the back of traders  minds.

Crude for March delivery was at $99.63 a barrel inelectronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 7cents, at 3:29 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contractgained 30 cents to $99.70, the highest settlement since Jan. 19.Prices have climbed 1.2 percent so far this week and 16 percentin the past year.

Brent oil for March settlement on the London-based ICEFutures Europe exchange was at $110.68 a barrel, down 11 cents.The European benchmark contract was at a premium of $11.10 toWest Texas futures. The spread shrank to $9.90 on Jan. 18 andreached a record $27.88 on Oct. 14.
Technical Support

Crude in New York has technical support along its 50-daymoving average, around $99.28 a barrel today, according to datacompiled by Bloomberg. Futures slid to an intraday low yesterdayof $99.23. Buy orders tend to be clustered near chart-supportlevels.

 West Texas is in a key area between $99 and $102 so if wedo see it trade up through $102.50 in the next few sess! ions wec ould well get a bit of a gallop on,  McCarthy said.

U.S. bookings for durable goods, or products meant to lastat least three years, advanced 3 percent after rising 4.3percent the prior month, the biggest back-to-back gains inalmost a year, based on a Commerce Department report yesterdayin Washington. A median 2 percent increase was predicted by 78economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Fuel consumption rose 7.5 percent to 19.2 million barrels aday in the week ended Jan. 20, the largest gain since Nov. 4,the Energy Department said on Jan. 25.
Iran Sanctions

Oil has also risen this week amid concern European Unionsanctions on Iran will curb supplies. EU foreign ministersagreed on Jan. 23 to ban petroleum imports from the Persian Gulfnation from July 1 to pressure the country over its nuclearprogram. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said his countryis willing to revive talks on its nuclear plans and accusedWestern countries of dodging discussions, the state-run Farsnews agency reported yesterday.

Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz inretaliation against the embargo. The waterway is a transit routefor about a fifth of the world s crude, according to the U.S.Department of Energy.

More than 70 percent of investors in a quarterly BloombergGlobal Poll said an attack on Iran s nuclear facilities wouldcreate only a short-term disruption in crude markets. About athird of 1,209 global investors, traders and analysts surveyedfrom Jan. 23 to Jan. 24 said an attack could trigger an oilshock leading to a global recession.
Tropical Cyclone Iggy

Crude may rise next week on the EU embargo plan and afterthe Federal Reserve committed to keep interest rates near arecord low through 2014, according to a Bloomberg News survey.Fifteen of 32 analysts and traders, or 47 percent, forecast oilwill advance through Feb. 3. Ten respondents, or 31 percent,predicted prices will drop and seven estimated there will belittle change.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy! reduced Australian oil output thisweek by as much as 100,000 barrels a day, or about a quarter ofthe country s average production last fiscal year. The stormwill strengthen to Category 3 tomorrow, the third-strongest on afive-step scale, the Bureau of Meteorology said on its website.