Best Stocks to Buy - Consumers holding back, especially on cars

Best Stocks to Buy - NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Retail sales rose in January, but were dragged down by an unexpected decline in auto sales, according to government data released Tuesday.
Overall retail sales were up 0.4% compared to December, the Commerce Department reported. That's only half the gain forecast by economists surveyed by Briefing.com.
The biggest problem was a 1.1% decline in auto sales in the government report. Excluding auto sales, retail sales rose 0.7% in the latest report.
"January's retail sales data are better than they look, but they don't suggest that consumption growth is about to set the economic recovery alight," said Paul Dale, senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics.
The drop in auto sales caught many experts by surprise because automakers reported their best monthly U.S. sales since the spike that occurred during the "Cash for Clunkers" program in 2009.
But much of the gain in reported auto sales was due to a big jump in January fleet sales to business, such as rental car companies. Those sales do not get included in the retail sales reading.
Economists said the sales excluding autos actually came in a bit better than expected, despite the weaker-than-hoped headline reading.

Gift cards: Most popular holiday gift

Best Stocks to Buy - "To write this off as a weak report is a mistake," said Carl Riccadonna, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. He pointed out that most categories other than autos, furniture, health care products and nonstore retailers, primarily the online shopping, posted gains.
Part of what drove higher spending was an increase in gasoline prices, which lifted money spent at gas stations by 1.4%.
But there was also an increase in spending at general merchandise retailers, which includes department stores. Those sales rose 2% compared to December.
"All the post-holiday markdowns and gift cards received during the holidays worked their magic. They brought people into the stores," said Li! bby Bier man, analyst at Sageworks.
Sales at food stores climbed 1.3%. Riccadonna said that like the increased spending at gas stations, part of rise at supermarket checkouts was due to rising prices. But unlike the gas station rise, food prices accounted for only part of that gain.
"Whether it's buying more food or better cuts of meat, we can't say. But they're buying more, as they are in other categories," he said.
The report revised December data lower, suggesting an even weaker holiday shopping season than previously reported. Overall spending was revised down to essentially no gain after a 0.1% increase in the initial report last month, and there is now a 0.5% drop in spending excluding autos.
Economists had been hopeful that Best Stocks to Buy - consumers would start spending again, as recent jobs reports showed a pick-up in hiring and a decline in unemployment. But consumers seem to be keeping spending in check, despite having more money in the their wallets.

Best Stocks To Buy Right Now - Energy stocks took a back seat in recent rally

I bet you want to know the answer to this question: If global stock markets do continue to bounce over the next 74 days until the end of the year, which stocks and ETFs would benefit?
We already have a lot of the positions that should benefit: Markets in southeast Asia, Asia Minor and South America, as well as gold and gold miners. However there could be a group of companies that start to gain ground: Ones that have been weak until now, and have rebound potential.

Best Stocks To Buy Right Now - Michael Belkin, an influential equity and credit researcher based on Bainbridge Island who has made countless great calls over the years — including a famous forecast of the collapse of the Japanese markets back at the end of 1989 when they were at their peak — says he says it is time to go back to Investing 101 and buy low.
His top picks include “frontier markets” such as Egypt, Vietnam, the Persian Gulf and Africa. “Since most managers haven’t figured out that these markets exist or how to invest in them, opportunities still exist for intrepid early adopters,” he said in a report late last week. “This asset class will probably get glued into emerging markets by capital flows over the next several years. It hasn’t happened yet.
The main fund covering this area is Best Stocks To Buy Right Now - Guggenheim Frontier Markets (FRN), though it is dominated by Chilean and Colombian stocks, which we already own. Going farther afield is Best Stocks To Buy Right Now - Market Vectors Africa (AFK). I don’t like this fund, however, because of its very low trading volume and the fact that it largely just tracks the price of crude oil, since energy exploration and production is the largest source of wealth in emerging Africa.

Best Stocks To Buy Right Now - MV Egypt (EGPT) is kind of interesting, but it’s mostly a cotton and finance story and the fund is again very lightly traded.Best Stocks To Buy Right Now - MV Vietnam (V NM) is more compelling as it is an emerging manufacturing hub as factory managers keep seeking cheaper labor for the sort of low-level finished goods that China first cut its teeth on.
Over on the Continent , the two main funds focused on this idea?would be SPDR S&P Emerging Europe (GUR), which has decent volume, and?iShares Emerging Eastern Europe (ESR), which has very light volume. There’s also a single country fund that looks very attractive from a valuation and business momentum perspective:?Market Vector Poland (PLND). The Polish economy is one of the most robust in Europe, with stronger than expected banking and manufacturing sectors.
Most commodities have been on a tear, with grains up +40% and gold up a ton in recent months. But one commodity group that has almost been forgotten, and is still cheap, is the most fundamental: energy. Belkin says his model has a fresh upward forecast for the prices of all carbon products — crude oil, gasoline and heating oil — as well as ethanol and sugar. A rotation to this area is likely.
The same could be said for energy stocks, which have taken a backseat in the recent rally. Belkin’s model favors higher-beta medium- and small-sized energy companies in the United States and Europe. Large-cap energy producers of all stripes are in the fund?SPDR Energy Select (XLE), while smaller energy companies are in?SPDR Oil Services (XES) and?SPDR Exploration (XOP).
Just smaller companies are in the new, lightly traded?PowerShares S&P Smallcap Energy (XLES). And a way to mix energy and emerging markets is through?MarketVectors Russia (RSX), which is largely driven by that country’s large energy companies.
Other buy-low sectors for Belkin with outperform prospects are in tech, heavy industry and discretionary or retail. Everyone knows that Apple! (NASDAQ: AAPL) and now Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) are up, but much of tech has been left behind. Some top rally prospects well below their all-time highs include?Western Digital (NYSE: WDC),?Alcatel Lucent (NYSE: ALU),?Ciena (NASDAQ: CIEN),?Micron (NASDAQ: MU),?LSI (NYSE: LSI) and?Applied Materials Best Stocks To Buy Right Now - (NASDAQ: AMAT).
Industrial stocks that his model considers undervalued are?Jacobs Engineering (NYSE: JEC),Best Stocks To Buy Right Now - Masco (NYSE: MAS),?Textron (NYSE: TXT) and?Mantiwoc (NYSE: MTW). The fundamental outlook for these companies is not great, but as Belkin notes, “that is how value stocks always look” before they turn higher at inflection points like this month promises to be. The overall view for a recovery rally is for a bottom-fishing expedition to emerge in depressed stocks and sectors.
For more ideas along these lines, please check out my daily Trader’s Advantage and Strategic Advantage newsletters.